Top 20 NAO analogs Aug 11-Nov 15, we are #1 or #2

[StormchaserChuck!]

Top 20 NAO analogs Aug11-Nov15, we are #1 or #2

https://ibb.co/GWVhDzH

^Dec-Mar

This keeps popping up

https://ibb.co/VCxt41t

Since 1948, kind of a weak dataset. We will finish Aug11-Nov 15 2021 #1 or #2 strongest NAO on record(based on 500mb)/20

This was probably most -NAO(1960-61)

https://ibb.co/M5TkT7v

[StormchaserChuck!]

Oct NAO analogs, right over the Baffin Island/Davis Straight there

https://ibb.co/fkJ8KzT

https://ibb.co/Cshrjt6

https://ibb.co/GPmn3Fb

https://ibb.co/2NNYxqG

oct 2021 https://ibb.co/zbVkXz8

[OHweather]

Are you thinking -NAO, -PNA, +EPO this winter? 

[StormchaserChuck!]

If we can do it, +AO/-NAO... definitely +EPO/+AO. -PNA I think, yes. 

[Mr. Kevin]

If that happens, we can cancel winter east of the Rockies.

[OHweather]

6 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

If that happens, we can cancel winter east of the Rockies.

There is some support for Chuck's teleconnection outcome...

Moderate La Ninas which this one is have a nice -NAO signal, but with a +EPO. The AO is close to neutral:

This is a hybrid or basin wide La Nina...also supports a -NAO, but +EPO and AO:

With that outcome, it'd generally be tougher to snow farther south, but would be an active northern stream and if ridging briefly amped into Alaska it'd get cold farther south and could snow. The -NAO keeps the Great Lakes and New England from torching. 

But, the descending easterly QBO may give some more hope (hybrid and east-based weak to moderate La Ninas with westerlies descending or easterlies...we have easterlies this winter):

 

I like a -NAO this winter. I think the AO and EPO go positive at times, but also think we get a nice crack at a -AO and -EPO through December, so we could have quite a cold start before those trend more positive January and maybe February...then the SE ridge flexes more, but the NAO may hold off a torch in the Great Lakes and New England. 

That's kind of what I envision...Chuck's -NAO/+AO/+EPO could pan out for the season overall, but with a cold start and then still somewhat variable in the Great Lakes and New England, but milder farther south.