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Roger Smith

Summer of 2019 forecast -- hotter than normal for many

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I don't have any elaborate presentation prepared, just this bare bones condensed version of research model findings that indicate a very hot summer possible for most of the lower 48, if any region escapes it would be Montana-Idaho-PAC NW. 

Expecting this heat to build slowly in June and perhaps not affect anomalies that much until July and August. Could then turn into one of the all-time memorable heat wave summers. 

The usual precip anomaly pattern for such a summer is above normal rainfall in some parts of the northwest U.S., isolated portions of northern plains, northern Great Lakes (mostly on Canadian side) and into Quebec and northern New England. Also pockets of above normal rainfall likely from TX to FL. Otherwise below normal to drought conditions in parts of the northeast, Ohio valley, central plains.

Somewhat more active tropical season than last year, hopefully nothing to match Michael's specific ferocity or going back a year Harvey's rainfall production, but potential for one or two destructive landfalls in the Gulf region, and by September in the eastern seaboard. 

Just wondering then if others see this potential or do you have other ideas about the outcome for summer 2019? 

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I had July pretty hot in the SE US (maybe +5F? in some spots). I put this out in mid-May. Where I live, monthly highs have been colder year/year for at least eight months in a row. At this point, I don't see why that won't continue in June. Do have some concerns that the monsoon will be weak in July but come on stronger in August. 

https://t.co/nXVKwXTHVt

I don't know that Nino 3.4 will be as warm as my analog blend implies, but the pattern is still kind of behaving like an El Nino so I think I'm probably OK through at least July. The wetness in the Plains and snow-pack in the West in June will interfere with the usual placement of highs over the Western half of the US I think.

 

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Roger, do you forsee high end heat waves or just consistently significantly warmer than average temps to get to your outcome?  It has been so wet in the central US that it is hard to believe that won't feed back and try to put a lid on some of the heat.  Then again, if the pattern dries out then who knows.

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Well, for the reason you mention, I do see some chance that the result will be based on a steady humid heat of less than record breaking intensity, but some factors lead me to believe this may gradually transition to more memorable heat wave numbers by late July into August. I realize it has been very wet in parts of the Great Lakes and northeast, however, it would only take perhaps 2-3 weeks of warm dry weather in late June to set up a modified drought condition that could lead to 100+ days. Most memorable heat wave summers tend to come with pulses of record breaking heat and intervening near normal dry weather from a Pacific source. I guess that various factors mentioned by the two previous posters might argue for there being a more humid form of sustained heat in this case. 

The most likely form of bust for this forecast would be near normal temperatures and very wet. This would happen if heights don't build as expected but an interior western trough remains anchored over CO-NM. 

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These are monthly highs in Albuquerque. Assuming we'll be around 75F in May, we've had seven of eight months with at least a 4F year/year high decline. Part of that is because 2017-18 was so warm, but I've looked, it's still very rare historically to get eight months in a row with drops in highs, almost unheard of since the 1890s actually.

High ABQ (F)          Oct           Nov          Dec         Jan          Feb         Mar          Apr      May

2017 72.1 65.4 53.1 51.8 56.4 63.5 74.5 84.5
2018 66.8 55.4 47.2 46.0 51.5 62.2 70.3 75.0

If the 4F+ drops were to continue into Summer here, June 2018 was 92.8F, July 2018 was 92.0F, August was 90.3F, and September was 84.8F. Long-term averages (1931-2018) are 90, 92, 89.3, 82.6 for those months. So it was pretty hot in June. A similar extended year/year drop for eight months in a row, in the same period did happen in 1985-86 to 1986-87, so I have been looking at Summer 1987 (also a low solar El Nino winter with rising solar-activity as we seem to be seeing now, with four/six months in Nov-Apr increasing y/y in solar activity). 

           Oct      Nov     Dec    Jan      Feb    Mar      Apr      May

1985    69.5    57.4    50.6    54.6    54.8    64.7    70.3    77.8
1986    66.5    52.8    46.0    43.8    50.3    57.5    69.1    75.4

 

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I'm thinking the opposite, for the Great Lakes region at least. Thinking it might rival 1992 for cold and be remembered as a true "year without a summer". I hope I'm completely wrong though. 

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My hunch is July will be very hot in the East. That's very strongly telegraphed in the data. I went with 1966, 1966, 1987, 1992, 1993, 2015 as my Summer blend, in the forecast I linked above. Years after low-solar El Ninos, and then with 2015/1992/1993 blended in to account for the warmth in Nino 3.4 in Spring, which is near record levels. I don't think we're done with these 100F readings in the South. Jacksonville, FL hit 100F a few days ago - that's damn impressive for that area in May.

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I wonder if another older analogue might be 1911? There was a very warm May in the east followed by one of the worst heat waves on record in early July. It was a low solar year back in the last weak solar long-term period before the current one (1905-07 peak considered weak, 1917 peak moderate strong). 

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Did KA put out a summer forecast this year? Just wondering if he did and if so, if he concurs with the present thinking about the summer being cooler than normal. I sure would appreciate cooler than normal, like it has generally been so far.  Have not posted here on the BB in quite some time. Will check back soon - I had lost my login but remembered it a few mins ago. Thanks, Kevin Shaw Rockville MD 

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It will probably snow down to near the NM-CO border in late June, going by the models. Very impressive even at elevations of 10,000-14,000 feet for this area of the world. It snowed above 10,000 feet on June 4th in New Mexico. Taos Powderhorn, at 11,000 feet still has 25 inches of snow as of the morning of 6/18. Snow will probably completely melt off by July 1, but that's a hell of a run - Halloween to the Summer Solstice covered in snow.

June high in Albuquerque is 86.1F through 6/18. Accuweather has the next 12 days at 89.7F - that's probably not a terrible guess - if it verified verbatim, June 2019 ends up with the coldest June high since 2009 here, at around 87.5F.

Last June was 92.8F. To even match the high last June, the highs June 19-30 would have to average at least 102.9F - that's near physically impossible at this elevation and altitude (record is 101.5F in 1974), so June will be my 9th month in a row with a year over year decline in monthly highs. Every month since October 2018, except March, has seen highs drop at least 4F year over year if June does indeed come in around 87.5F as Accuweather's forecast implies.  

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Idea of a pretty hot East in July after a fairly cool June for much of the US looks pretty good now. Lot of places in the NE will flirt with 100 degree highs. Have fun with that. Still hasn't topped 97 in Albuquerque, although it may this week.

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