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Tallis Rockwell

Cyclones from 4/10-4/13

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day4prob.gif?1554732655361

   ...DISCUSSION...
   By day 4 (Thursday), somewhat greater moisture will be advected
   northward ahead of the surface low with dewpoints in the 50s F. It
   still appears likely that a band of storms will develop along the
   trailing cold front as this boundary intercepts the destabilizing
   boundary layer across the middle MS, OH and TN Valleys. Despite an
   expected marginal thermodynamic environment, some risk for damaging
   wind will exist given strength of low-mid level winds and strong
   vertical shear supportive of a few embedded meso-vortices and bowing
   structures. Have introduced a 15% probability to account for this
   possibility.

   Day 5 (Friday) The upper trough will continue east northeast with
   associated deep cyclone moving from the Great Lakes into southeast
   Canada. Storms may continue along the front and warm conveyor belt
   in the high shear/low CAPE environment. Some severe probabilities
   might eventually be needed from the Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas
   if confidence increases that the thermodynamic environment will
   become sufficient for severe storms.

   Day 6 (Saturday) General model consensus is that rich low-level
   moisture with near 70 F dewpoints will advect northward into the
   warm sector over the lower MS Valley in advance of a southern-stream
   shortwave trough. This environment may become favorable for a more
   significant severe event by later Saturday from southeast TX to the
   lower MS Valley, then continuing into the Gulf Coast states Sunday
   (day 7). If models continue to demonstrate consistency in this
   scenario, a categorical risk area will need to be introduced in
   later updates.

Saturday looks to be the climax but the GFS puts the surface low in an unfavorable place while the ECMWF has a more favorable surface profile

 EDIT: Another one mentioned significant snow fall taking place in the Ohio valley and the implications of that for their already bad flooding situation.

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What do y'all think about Wednesday?  Obviously not enough moisture for anything widespread but if something can get going up by the triple point the kinematics are promising.

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Date and/or headlines can be changed by the original author. Edit the first post and all of that opens up again.

2 hours ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

Should have just put April...:fulltilt:

Wednesday Kansas and Nebraska will battle the moisture question. No doubt shear will be there, including low-level shear.

Thursday it heads into Hoosier Alley. They will cover it in the Lakes Ohio Valley regional subforum. 

Everyone have fun this week!

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18z Nam Nest updraft helicity swath is bonkers image.thumb.png.147b65204f25f6939a54200cf2ae8e4c.png

Edit: PDS Tor still showing on this run image.thumb.png.bdd55fb63ba2375eb49678d3bc69b743.png

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D1 Enhanced on thr KS/NE border. Also 30% contour added for D4 from eastern TX to western MS

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