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40/70 Benchmark

Winter Outlook 2018-2019

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He must be trolling at this point...at least I hope...anyway, looking forward to shoveling the 6" of low el nino solar off of my driveway tomorrow night.

low solar.... does that mean no sun angle issues for late season events? ;-)

 

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6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah and meanwhile in a different thread Raindance is using 1957-58, 1986-87 and 2004-05 as his top analogs lol.

I just responded in that one.

I think 2004 is fine.....he loves 2006.

Just take any modest el nino that was mild in the northeast and and cool and rainy in New Mexico, and its fine. lol jk

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6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think 2004 is fine.....he loves 2006.

Just take any modest el nino that was mild in the northeast and and cool and rainy in New Mexico, and its fine. lol jk

Yes I like that analog too but I thought it was ironic he was using that set of analogs and then predicting that snowfall in the NE will be below normal.  As soon as I read your outlook, Ray, I knew he would have a problem with it haha.

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17 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah and meanwhile in a different thread Raindance is using 1957-58, 1986-87 and 2004-05 as his top analogs lol.

I just responded in that one.

1986 is one of my analogs. Nov 1986 looks dead on to Nov 2018.sn2OTfx.png

Pointing out that 1957, 1986 and 2004 blended together look like Nov 2018 doesn't make them analogs. It just means they look like Nov. When I say a month looks like x it doesn't mean I consider it an analog. You'll notice I never said "these are my analogs". I mention it because out of all the SOI monthly data for the last 100 years those three years were closest to 2018 from July to Oct, and then Nov magically looked like a blend of those years, and I was pleased to see it because the -SOI in Sept is highly correlated to cold Nov in TX.

17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He must be trolling at this point...at least I hope...anyway, looking forward to shoveling the 6" of low el nino solar off of my driveway tomorrow night.

If you get 6" in Nov, it means once again my forecast was closer than yours for Nov, because I included years like 1986 that actually had substantial snow in Boston in November. According to you, that's "the only thing that matters" so you're off to a rocking start so far, since you had years that averaged 0.6" of snow in November for Boston.

2JRiQkR.png

I guess looking at the five day is hard huh? Meanwhile, the rest of us have been doing quite well, including the Rockies and Plains where I had most areas well above normal.

DsAsbBmU8AAh-Td.jpg

4s8s7xJ.png

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1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

1986 is one of my analogs. Nov 1986 looks dead on to Nov 2018.sn2OTfx.png

Pointing out that 1957, 1986 and 2004 blended together look like Nov 2018 doesn't make them analogs. It just means they look like Nov. When I say a month looks like x it doesn't mean I consider it an analog. You'll notice I never said "these are my analogs". I mention it because out of all the SOI monthly data for the last 100 years those three years were closest to 2018 from July to Oct, and then Nov magically looked like a blend of those years, and I was pleased to see it because the -SOI in Sept is highly correlated to cold Nov in TX.

If you get 6" in Nov, it means once again my forecast was closer than yours for Nov, because I included years like 1986 that actually had substantial snow in Boston in November. According to you, that's "the only thing that matters" so you're off to a rocking start so far, since you had years that averaged 0.6" of snow in November for Boston.

2JRiQkR.png

I guess looking at the five day is hard huh? Meanwhile, the rest of us have been doing quite well, including the Rockies and Plains where I had most areas well above normal.

DsAsbBmU8AAh-Td.jpg

4s8s7xJ.png  

What is your point? Many forecasters release in mid November.....if you release in mid October, there is a dearth of information, so you resign yourself to utilizing fall weather.

I did not pick my analogs based upon sensible fall weather, so your observation, is irrelevant.

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Shouldn't the weather start looking what you expect for winter at some point? December is right around the corner. That is my point. You seem awfully convinced I'll be wrong on everything, that is why I keep pointing out how close everything has been so far. There has not been an El Nino in Boston with low-solar that produced 80-90 inches since 1892. That is all I'm saying. It's not that it will be 55F every night in Boston. It just tends to be somewhat dry. The new Jamstec, Euro, CFS, Canadian all show that now for the NE.

Anyway, no reason to flame the hatred. I'm not a meteorologist, but I work at a casino and I am essentially a professional forecast in that arena, so what I find is my methods are fairly transferable into other areas. I'll check back in April, I suspect you'll be around 35", give or take 10" in Boston officially.

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1 minute ago, raindancewx said:

Shouldn't the weather start looking what you expect for winter at some point? December is right around the corner. That is my point. You seem awfully convinced I'll be wrong on everything, that is why I keep pointing out how close everything has been so far. There has not been an El Nino in Boston with low-solar that produced 80-90 inches since 1892. That is all I'm saying. It's not that it will be 55F every night in Boston. It just tends to be somewhat dry. The new Jamstec, Euro, CFS, Canadian all show that now for the NE.

Anyway, no reason to flame the hatred. I'm not a meteorologist, but I work at a casino and I am essentially a professional forecast in that arena, so what I find is my methods are fairly transferable into other areas. I'll check back in April, I suspect you'll be around 35", give or take 10" in Boston officially.

The weather is looking very much how I expect it to right now. And no, I think your temps are reasonable....its the snowfall/precip that I have an issue with.

As far as hatred...what do you call ridiculing a release date? I don't think 11/14 is late when you are forecasting a for 30-120 day period.

There are not many weak el nino seasons that were dry in this area, but at this point there is nothing left to say, so we will just see what verifies.

 

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3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Shouldn't the weather start looking what you expect for winter at some point? December is right around the corner. That is my point. You seem awfully convinced I'll be wrong on everything, that is why I keep pointing out how close everything has been so far. There has not been an El Nino in Boston with low-solar that produced 80-90 inches since 1892. That is all I'm saying. It's not that it will be 55F every night in Boston. It just tends to be somewhat dry. The new Jamstec, Euro, CFS, Canadian all show that now for the NE.

Anyway, no reason to flame the hatred. I'm not a meteorologist, but I work at a casino and I am essentially a professional forecast in that arena, so what I find is my methods are fairly transferable into other areas. I'll check back in April, I suspect you'll be around 35", give or take 10" in Boston officially.

Also got 6" here in NYC and the city was basically shut down because it all fell during rush hour....from Twitter

People called us @WCBS880, saying they’ve been sitting still on the George Washington Bridge approaches and elsewhere for more than 5 hours. They are demanding answers for rightful reasons. How does 6 inches of snow paralyze NY and NJ? Disgraceful. @NJTRANSIT bad on a good day.

 

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@40/70 Benchmark - this is a great, highly detailed essay, and you did a very good job re explaining the various apposite factors. Our index forecasts are also quite similar, in fact, the only difference appears to be that I expect the positive geopotential height center to be centered more toward the NAO region rather than the north pole in the means  but I am anticipating both a weakly neg AO and weak to mod neg NAO. Other indices are similar to yours as well. Earlier this month, there were actually some conflicting factors which IMO made this winter harder to call than most realized, but now, my confidence is fairly high on our forecasted outcomes.

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Quick update...no changes. Ironically enough, it is the southeastern states of Virginia and North Carolina that are receiving the major snows since the PNA did join forces with high latitude blocking, but this is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. The blocking did indeed materialize, and is on borrowed time, as advertised. Everything seems to be going as planned..too bad the early Dec event didn't work out for most of the east coast.

Bad luck.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/12/deceptive-early-season-respite-november.html

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On January 2, 2019 at 11:38 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:
Here is how the Eastern Mass Weather thoughts laid out on 11/12/18 for the month of December fared.
 
 
December%2BForecast.png
 
"The current scandinavian ridge should retrograde towards Greenland for the first couple of weeks of December, some significant snows are likely for much of New England".
 
NAO.thumb.gif.0c1b15582ea58203b2b55d7a185f0fbf.gif
 
The period of negative NAO did indeed materialize near the onset of the month, but unfortunately the system was forced well to the south of New England by overwhelming confluence.
 
"The PNA may struggle to become established this early, however if it can, the northern mid atlantic may join the fray". 
 
The decline of a robust period of PNA to begin the month coupled with the eroding negative NAO to deliver the goods for the southern mid atl and southeast. 
 
PNA.thumb.gif.e2f4b2036ee6025cc9a2a4b01f0a6ce7.gif
 
 
"The blocking pattern should break down mid month, and there will likely be Grinch storm in the vicinity of Christmas, unlike last season".
 
 
Temperatures should average out near normal for most of the east by month's end, biased colder early, and milder late. If anything, slightly above average for the mid atlantic, and below average in New England".
 
This was a good call, as evidenced by the monthly departure map below, however truth be told, the gradient was a bit further the north across New England than has been anticipated.
 
Dec.thumb.png.492caeccb1212f176e00e56b2f95613b.png
 
Additionally, although a temperature forecast was not put forth for the entire country, the warmth especially across the upper midwest was likely more intense than would have been expected, as the +EPO interlude and associated Pac jet were not expected.
EPO.thumb.png.a3eec73ea9c6553e3756244821a865f0.png
 
 
 
 
This may be due, at least in part, to the MJO amplification through phases 4-6 that was incited by the SSW, which also was unexpected. Although a technical SSW was not forecast, the anticipated evolution for the rest of the winter is not impacted.
In fact, it only serves to further buttress confidence on the emergence of NAO blocking later in the month of January .
 
 
 
January%2BForecaast.png
"The NAO blocking breaks down in time for the holidays, go figure, however around this time the Pacific side grows more supportive, so this mid winter break will not be as prolonged, nor as mild as last season, especially across New England. The month should average anywhere from 1-2 degrees above normal across New England, and 2-3 degrees above normal beneath the 40th parallel. The month of January looks a lot like 2015 and 2005, and we expect a similar evolution. Complete with a monster Archambault event anywhere from January 20th to February 8th, after which the Atlantic couples with the Pacific to induce cross polar flow and set the stage for a memorable February". 

 

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:
Mother nature has managed to deconstruct yet another significant winter storm threat with nothing short of surgical precision, as tomorrow's system, which had appeared relatively ominous last week, looks to pass to our north.
FAIL.png

Thus the cold will be once again eradicated not long after precipitation commences, sequence that has become all too familiar throughout boreal winter 2018-2019. And after perhaps an inch of snow near the New Hampshire border, with potentially more in the higher elevations of the Berskshires, followed by a period of icy mix tomorrow, the majority of precipitation will fall as rain, especially from the Connecticut river valley points eastward. Then the attention shifts to next weekend, and as of right now, the region of southern New England looks largely to dodge and weave yet another blow from old man winter. This time the system looks to pass by in the other direction, as the most significant impacts look to remain out to sea, however some light to perhaps moderate snowfall remains possible....especially south and east of Boston.
Both the GFS ensemble suite:
 
Storm%2BGEFS.png


As well as the superior ECWF ensemble mean:
Storm%2BEPS.png
largely concur on the ridge axis being just a bit to far too the east to allow the downstream flow to buckle enough to lift the system all the way up the coast. While the EPS ridge axis is a bit better more favorably positioned to the west for more impacts, it is significantly flatter, thus it is even less favorable in the aggregate than its GEFS counterpart.
Considering the evolution of the first half of the season, it is exceedingly difficult for the beleaguered calvary of winter aficionados to elude the perception of old man winter as an aging middle aged boxer, flailing away in vain during the final moments of a banal career. However old man winter has el nino in his corner, and he may yet be primed to begin landing a succession of devastating blows to local infrastructure once the bell sounds for the second half.
Likely Second Half Blocking Trifecta
Despite the fact that PNA ridging is typically favored during el nino events, it remained relatively elusive throughout December, which is one of the elements that acted to limit snowfall potential easily in the season. This was expected, as specified in the Eastern Mass Weather Winter Outlook that was released on November 12th:
 
PNA%253ARNA.jpg
Negative PNA, vs RNA, Pictured to the Right
"As illustrated above, the positive mode of the PNA favors cool, wet toughing over the east, and milder, drier ridging over the west. Conversely, the negative PNA, or RNA, favor inclement weather in the west, and more pleasant sensible weather in the east. Positive phases of both the PDO and PNA are favored due to the forcing regime associated with this modoki el nino event being centered more over the central Pacific".
Modoki.jpg
 
"However since this particular warm ENSO event is late to develop and still in the process of coupling with the atmosphere, as evidenced by the ONI/MEI and AEI values, the early season period during the month of December is most likely to feature negative phases. Both phases should begin to become biased towards positive as we begin the new year, and the fledgling el nino beings to assert itself".        
                                                            -Eastern Mass Weather 11-12-18
 
Indeed, evidence of the maturation of el nino is beginning to manifest in long term ensemble consensus.
Consensus%2Bon%2BTiple%2BPlay%2BBlocking.png
 
 
Not only are the GEFS and the EPS coming into agreement on blocking over western US, but the recent Sudden Stratospheric Warming and subsequent split of the polar vortex is effectively augmenting typical weak modoki climatology in all but ensuring high latitude blocking both over the Arctic and north atlantic, in the vicinity of Greenland. 
 
 
 
This "blocking trifecta" was evident in the composite of comparable weak modoki events that occurred during a solar minimum, which was presented in the Eastern Mass Weather Winter Outlook
 
"Fortunately, we here at Eastern Mass Weather in our infinite wisdom, have on hand a composite of weak el nino events that occurred in the vicinity of a solar minimum":
 
Temps:
 
 
 
"Note the presence of 1977-1978 on this composite, which is becoming a theme. This season was also a weak modoki el nino with a QBO transitioning into the western shear zone during a solar minimum".
 
Precip:
 
 
 
Note the continued emphasis on Miller B formation in this particular composite.
 
H5:
 
Significant degree of high latitude blocking in the vicinity of Greenland
Our thoughts remain unchanged from the original presentation last November.
 
"The month of January should average anywhere from 1-2 degrees above normal across New England, and 2-3 degrees above normal beneath the 40th parallel. The month of January looks a lot like 2015 and 2005, and we expect a similar evolution. Complete with a monster Archambault event anywhere from January 20th to February 8th, after which the Atlantic couples with the Pacific to induce cross polar flow and set the stage for a memorable February. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
"What a tremendous difference a year makes. Winter's main course is where it should be climatologically speaking, during February. The sky is the limit for wintery potential this month, as this is as favorable it as it precarious as it gets, not at all unlike February 1978. This is the window for the mid atlantic to see major storm, especially if el nino grows a bit more potent than forecast. However odds favor the most crippling OF impacts being confined to New England. Intense blocking over Greenland, the pole, as well as Alaska and northwestern Canada. The second window for a historic event adjoins the first window, from February 9th through February 20th. After which the pattern relaxes and blocking relents somewhat. The northeast should average 2-4 degrees below average, and the mid atlantic 3-6 degrees below average".
 
 
 
 
 
"Blocking may not persist as strongly through March as the model implies, as this portion of the forecast is lower confidence. The PNA looks to wane, and there is very high confidence that the robust negative EPO will remain for the entire winter. Although this is another favorable regime for cold delivery, the source will likely be depleted by this point, and some moderation will be the rule as the airmass grows stale. The month should average  out near normal across the mid atlantic, and 1-2F degrees above average throughout New England".
 
 
-Eastern Mass Weather 11-12-18
 
In closing, here is a list of snowfall through yesterday, January 6, for Boston during some of the most prominent modoki el nino analog seasons. Followed by eventual seasonal totals to the right.
2015: 4.5"    110.6"
2005: 18.0"  86.6"
1978: 9.7"   85.1"
1969: 6.0"    53.8"
 
2018: .2"  ?
 
Eastern Mass Weather snowfall forecast and prognostications for aggregate December through March readings of some prominent atmospheric indexes.
 
 
 
 
 
 
Index Value
Predicted '18-'19 DM Value Range
Actual  '18-'19 DM Value
Departure From Verification
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
.40 to .70
 
 
Perennial North American Pattern (PNA)
.25 to .55
 
 
ENSO
Weak Modoki El Nino (0.9 to 1.1C ONI) (DJF)
 
 
 (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO)
-1.20 to -1.50
 
 
Arctic Oscillation (AO)
-.35 to -.60
 
 
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
-.10 to -.35
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
City
Predicted Snowfall
Actual
Percent Departure From Forecast Range
Boston, MA (BOS)
80-90"
 
 
New York, NY (CPK)
40-50”
 
 
Philadelphia, PA (PHL)
35-45”
 
 
Baltimore, MD (BWI)
20-30”
 
 
Washington, DC (DCA)
15-25”
 
 
Albany, NY (ALB)
75-85”
 
 
Hartford, CT (BDL)
65-75”
 
 
Providence, RI (PVD)
55-65"
 
 
Worcester, MA (ORH)
90-100”
 
 
Tolland, CT (TOL)
80-90”
 
 
Methuen, MA
90-100”
 
 
Hyannis, MA
45-55"
 
 
Portland, ME (PWM)
85-95"
 
 
 Burlington, VT (BTV)
 85-95"
 
 
Concord, NH (CON)
 
 
75-85”
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

Posted 16 hours ago by Raymond Spinazola
 
  

 

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On 11/15/2018 at 7:22 PM, raindancewx said:

Shouldn't the weather start looking what you expect for winter at some point? December is right around the corner. That is my point. You seem awfully convinced I'll be wrong on everything, that is why I keep pointing out how close everything has been so far. There has not been an El Nino in Boston with low-solar that produced 80-90 inches since 1892. That is all I'm saying. It's not that it will be 55F every night in Boston. It just tends to be somewhat dry. The new Jamstec, Euro, CFS, Canadian all show that now for the NE.

Anyway, no reason to flame the hatred. I'm not a meteorologist, but I work at a casino and I am essentially a professional forecast in that arena, so what I find is my methods are fairly transferable into other areas. I'll check back in April, I suspect you'll be around 35", give or take 10" in Boston officially.

Not bad for fall. 27.4" so far. Happy April! You probably will get a bit more this month.

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