Chinook Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 The SPC has issued a slight risk or better for today through Jan 22nd. It seems that the most obvious thing we may want to talk about is late Friday (06z or later) to Saturday in LA, MS, and AL. Today, there seems like there's a limited potential for severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 Here is my fairly simple outlook for Friday to Saturday. CAPE values will be increasing at nighttime on Friday in Louisiana and a small shortwave will help to kick off some showers and thunderstorms around 06z Saturday. Storm-relative helicity will vary quite a bit as the low-level wind fields change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 I would agree with that Chinook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 17 minutes ago, Chinook said: Here my fairly simple outlook for Friday to Saturday. CAPE values will be increasing at nighttime on Friday in Louisiana and a small shortwave will help to kick off some showers and thunderstorms around 06z Saturday. Storm-relative helicity will vary quite a bit as the low-level wind fields change. I could see SPC introducing an enhanced severe weather risk area at sometime during the next couple of days across the Mid-South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Looking like a few severe thunderstorms are possible through the rest of the evening hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 20, 2017 Author Share Posted January 20, 2017 It looks like a few members are posting about this subject in the SE Subforum, by the way. So I will probably post any info about severe weather in that thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 SPC indicating that a few strong tornadoes are possible later tonight in southern Louisiana and adjacent states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 From the Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Outlook... In addition, a 10% tornado probability area has been included for parts of southern LA/MS and far southwest AL, including the Mobile metro area. There will be a greater potential for discrete supercell development with southward extent ahead of the previously mentioned line of thunderstorms. Forecast soundings across this region suggest that any tornadoes that do form in this environment could be strong with southwesterly winds around 850 mb strengthening to around 50 kt overnight, and corresponding effective SRH in excess of 300 m2/s2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 With respect to the lower Mississippi Valley region, this setup is quite similar synoptically to 1/21/99, although not nearly as unstable with appreciable moisture return stunted farther south. Nonetheless, that event produced hail to softball size and numerous tornadoes in Arkansas. Even with somewhat less impressive instability (1,500-2,500 J/kg MLCAPE vs. 2,500-3,500 J/kg), it's more than enough given the kinematics for multiple instances of very large hail and at least a few tornadoes with discrete/semi-discrete convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stumpy Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 As someone that lives in Beebe, Arkansas which was hit by one of the 1/21/99 tornadoes I will hope that your observation about the lack of instability continues to be the case for the rest of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 We are off and running with round 2. Tornado Warning west of Sherveport. Possible tornado located near Jefferson, Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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