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ENYsnow

Eastern NY Thread - Winter

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It feels like its been awhile since we've had a storm where the NYC-BOS corridor flipped to rain while interior areas like here pounded snow.  Growing up in CT, it felt like that happened all the time back then. 

Another decent shot at snow next week.  We need some better mojo.  This threat looks to have high end potential but as always you have to keep expectations reasonable and hope for a plowable snowfall first.

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Another decent shot at snow next week.  We need some better mojo.  This threat looks to have high end potential but as always you have to keep expectations reasonable and hope for a plowable snowfall first.

 

Pretty strong signal on the 12z EPS, that would be a great setup.  We can't really get invested until this weekend though and by then it probably won't look nearly as good (based on every other event this season).

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It feels like its been awhile since we've had a storm where the NYC-BOS corridor flipped to rain while interior areas like here pounded snow.  Growing up in CT, it felt like that happened all the time back then. 

The most recent one may have been Feb 13-14, 2014?

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That was a good one, but I think even NYC had over a foot in that one with the Mid-Hudson valley hitting 20" in a few places.  Maybe December 14-15, 2013?  The coast did receive some snow, but the interior from here through West-Central New England bore the brunt I believe.

The most recent one may have been Feb 13-14, 2014?

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That was a good one, but I think even NYC had over a foot in that one with the Mid-Hudson valley hitting 20" in a few places.  Maybe December 14-15, 2013?  The coast did receive some snow, but the interior from here through West-Central New England bore the brunt I believe.

Yeah that's probably it then.  Incredible when you think about how many coastal or eastern New England specials there have been since then.  Next weeks threat looks like the best chance to cash in this winter, we just need the long wave trough to position in the goldilocks zone as the streams phase.

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The CMC puts down a few inches of snow Sun. night into Monday.  It's not far from a solid plowable, moderate event.  The GFS isn't too far away aloft even though it showed all the QPF to the south the past few runs.  The UK and EC have also been hinting at a light event.  I'm not ready to look past Monday.  It could end up being the biggest snow of the season.

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The CMC puts down a few inches of snow Sun. night into Monday.  It's not far from a solid plowable, moderate event.  The GFS isn't too far away aloft even though it showed all the QPF to the south the past few runs.  The UK and EC have also been hinting at a light event.  I'm not ready to look past Monday.  It could end up being the biggest snow of the season.

Yeah Monday is where the focus should be right now, a nice 3-6" or 4-8" event might get the mojo back. Would like to see the euro hold its further north solution for starters.

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2.5" of rain at ALB in the last 36 hours and still coming down pretty good in this n-s oriented convergence band. H85 temps are crashing, might see a few flakes this evening out toward eduggs.

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2.5" of rain at ALB in the last 36 hours and still coming down pretty good in this n-s oriented convergence band. H85 temps are crashing, might see a few flakes this evening out toward eduggs

Rainfall might be ahead of snowfall for the winter.  It was until the last snow "event."

 

Grafton is down to 36F.  I imagine the mix level is down to between 2k and 3k feet.

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Legit snow now but still slow to cool to freezing.  Parachute flakes sticking anyway.

 

The 18z GFS sure is pretty.  One of the best modeled snowstorms of the season for next week, midweek.

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Legit snow now but still slow to cool to freezing.  Parachute flakes sticking anyway.

 

The 18z GFS sure is pretty.  One of the best modeled snowstorms of the season for next week, midweek.

Upslope should help you tonight, seems to be the only way to increase seasonal total ha.

 

We're really gonna be rooting for that s/w to dive southeast and not phase with the PV lobe too quick.  Gonna need a little bit of luck, something that's been hard to come by this season.

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I think all the models UK/EC/GFS/EC favor better chance for wintry precip or all snow especially W by N by NE of KALB for Tues-Wed AM. High is in a much better spot along with the necking ridge to its east across ON/QU Provinces. Think this ridge may actually be a bit stronger too as we get closer to the event thanks to Monday's system up over Newfyland bombing out resulting in a greater confluent zone across QU and NNE. Also looks like some pretty strong ageo NNE-N flow over the NEUS.

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It's good to see Andy posting again, but yes, this one seems to be joining the others...

 

I know it's too much to hope to catch the likes of DC, Baltimore, Wilmington DE, Atlantic City, NYC, Boston, etc for seasonal snowfall this year...I was at least hoping for a couple more inches so I can catch up to Richmond, VA.

 

If not, I guess that's OK too.  I can always look back on this winter as being easier than any of the 20+ winters I spent in CT, which is no small feat.  It's also a beautiful day outside today, which has me looking forward to moving beyond this lengthy extended Autumn and into Spring.

This one's trending away from us, again.  Even the ski areas might be looking at more rain.

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Latest trends aren't great for the Dacks with the low tracking further NW and H85 temps > 0C for the majority of the event.  Going to need a SE shift or else this could end up being another let down for parts of northern NY.

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That's exactly where you'd want to see a bombing low go for heavy snow over ENY.  Well, except you'd want to see the GFS showing this a day or two out rather than over a week.  It feels like it's been years since we've seen a coastal hugger like this. In any case, I think the 18z GFS had this one over us...I find that infinitely more believable! 

We're having a great year in the GFS fantasy snow department, this probably puts us over 80" for the season.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_32.png

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All medium range guidance now gets some light snow to the Capital District Sunday night.  I also think this has room to move a little further NW.  A few of the individual ensemble members get significant snow back to our area and the UK, EC, and CMC aren't really that far off.

 

Right now I like NWCT through W/C MA and into NH for the best snows.  I know guidance and the multi-trend is SE of there, but at this moment I favor inland SNE.

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All medium range guidance now gets some light snow to the Capital District Sunday night.  I also think this has room to move a little further NW.  A few of the individual ensemble members get significant snow back to our area and the UK, EC, and CMC aren't really that far off.

 

Right now I like NWCT through W/C MA and into NH for the best snows.  I know guidance and the multi-trend is SE of there, but at this moment I favor inland SNE.

Yeah trying not to get excited but at this point I kind of like where we are, especially after seeing the 12z euro ensembles.  This seems like the first time this season that the flow isn't overly convoluted with multiple s/w's to muck things up (aside from the late Jan blizzard miss to our south), so we shouldn't see crazy ensemble spread.  Either way this things probably gonna be a bomb.

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Probably our best chance of something meaningful this season, but at least right now we look to follow the trend of most of the past several years for coastals of fighting for scraps out here while NE gets slammed.  Not sure how well it will accumulate during the day being outside of any meaningful rates, but those temps do look pretty cold, as currently modeled.  At least this one shouldn't be cutting over our heads this time.

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Trending toward a whiff it would seem.. big surprise.  Amazing how there was full support for a decent event from the ecmwf and the EPS, yet the GFS will likely win out. I'm so done with this sh*t hah.

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How did everybody do yesterday?  Not a bad event for October.  

There were some impressive totals in NW Mass (actually up and down western New England) but they locked in the cold east of the Berkshires.

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On 10/28/2016 at 1:49 AM, eduggs said:

How did everybody do yesterday?  Not a bad event for October.  

There were some impressive totals in NW Mass (actually up and down western New England) but they locked in the cold east of the Berkshires.

Late response but measured 2.0" on the nose here.  It felt more impressive than it was after struggling through last winter hah.  Looking forward to a pattern change later this month.

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And that pattern change looks to be right on our doorstep. The winter elves will traverse our region while we doze tonight. Looks like we could get white and actually keep it for a bit. 

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This will probably end up being the biggest snowstorm in several years for portions of elevated Rensselaer county.  Really impressive hybrid transitioning to upslope event going on.

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