snowgeek Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The 00z GFS looks pretty appetizing.. basically the perfect track for us. 6Z GFS looked good too, along with the 0Z Euro and the Euro Ensembles (maybe a bit too warm). It scares me when the GFS and Euro agree we are going to get a decent storm 5 days out. The cutter option and too far east options are still on the table. Also, it looks like it could be a thread the needle event with limited precip west of the 0C 850 isotherm. Cautiously optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I had 2" of powder on my car this morning and about 4" on the ground. I've seen probably 10" this year just from upslope. The snowcover is just in time to make a run at -20F this weekend! I have the same feelings as snowgeek regarding next week's storm. But a little track anxiety is part of the deal. I'd rather take my chances with a high QPF event than worry about fringing again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 6Z GFS looked good too, along with the 0Z Euro and the Euro Ensembles (maybe a bit too warm). It scares me when the GFS and Euro agree we are going to get a decent storm 5 days out. The cutter option and too far east options are still on the table. Also, it looks like it could be a thread the needle event with limited precip west of the 0C 850 isotherm. Cautiously optimistic. Yeah, we'd be above average in the snowfall department if all the day 5 snow storms came to fruition this year. I'm a little more worried about it going west of us right now, curious to see how much interaction the PV has with the developing wave as that will certainly affect track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 I had 2" of powder on my car this morning and about 4" on the ground. I've seen probably 10" this year just from upslope. The snowcover is just in time to make a run at -20F this weekend! I have the same feelings as snowgeek regarding next week's storm. But a little track anxiety is part of the deal. I'd rather take my chances with a high QPF event than worry about fringing again. Wow not bad, I just saw that Woodford, VT picked up at least 8.0" of upslope overnight... crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Wow not bad, I just saw that Woodford, VT picked up at least 8.0" of upslope overnight... crazy. Yeah, that's impressive. Woodford is a great spot for upslope and they had a streamer feeding right into that area of SVT. It looks like the ski areas near there picked up 4-6" of snow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I just checked the climate data and the monthly report at ALB shows 1.5" of snow on Tue. 2/9. When did that happen? I remember the 1.3" from Monday 2/8, but I only remember a coating from Tue. Obs. don't seem to support an inch an a half either. What's the story? I've had twice as much snow as the airport this week (I drive by there on my way to work), and I did not see 3 inches of snow on Mon and Tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 I just checked the climate data and the monthly report at ALB shows 1.5" of snow on Tue. 2/9. When did that happen? I remember the 1.3" from Monday 2/8, but I only remember a coating from Tue. Obs. don't seem to support an inch an a half either. What's the story? I've had twice as much snow as the airport this week (I drive by there on my way to work), and I did not see 3 inches of snow on Mon and Tue. I'm within a couple miles of the airport and only received 0.75-1.00" on Tuesday. They seem to be measuring generously this year, I guess somebody doesn't want any records broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I'm within a couple miles of the airport and only received 0.75-1.00" on Tuesday. They seem to be measuring generously this year, I guess somebody doesn't want any records broken. Clifton Park didn't get half an inch on Tue. 1.5" on 0.06 liquid? The hourlies were like .03 then several hours later there was a .01 and then a few more .01 later in the day. Unless you're at the summit of Jay peak, it would be difficult to squeeze a legit inch and a half out of that. I wonder if the 1.5" from Tue might have been the total on the ground at the time of measuring, which would have included the snow from the previous day. It matters only because the record could be at stake. Otherwise it's completely trivial. And like you say, it's not the first time the daily snow accumulation seemed a little high this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 There's been some favorable trends on the 12z suite so far.. need the euro to confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 There's been some favorable trends on the 12z suite so far.. need the euro to confirm. Yeah. Great to see. I think this could really go either way. West or east. The 12z GFS and CMC develop 850mb lows on day 4 over VA instead of in WPA as in previous runs. But there still looks to be upper level divergence and weak mid-level circulation further north into the eastern Ohio valley. If the northern circulation stays dominant, temps will surge northward and we're toast. Even with a favorable slp track we might mix or change over. A weaker wave like the CMC risks missing east, with a narrow area of snow. A more mature storm with a further north mid-level circulation risks a total washout. Obviously we want a mature storm with the mid-levels tracks further SE. The GFS definitely made a move in this direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yeah. Great to see. I think this could really go either way. West or east. The 12z GFS and CMC develop 850mb lows on day 4 over VA instead of in WPA as in previous runs. But there still looks to be upper level divergence and weak mid-level circulation further north into the eastern Ohio valley. If the northern circulation stays dominant, temps will surge northward and we're toast. Even with a favorable slp track we might mix or change over. A weaker wave like the CMC risks missing east, with a narrow area of snow. A more mature storm with a further north mid-level circulation risks a total washout. Obviously we want a mature storm with the mid-levels tracks further SE. The GFS definitely made a move in this direction. Of course the euro is more amped than 00z.. never fails. I'm having a hard time believing that the second s/w nearly catches up to the first.. if that happens the trough will go negative quick and we're definitely toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Of course the euro is more amped than 00z.. never fails. I'm having a hard time believing that the second s/w nearly catches up to the first.. if that happens the trough will go negative quick and we're definitely toast. I think we're probably toast. But it's close enough to a dumping that I'm eager to check each model cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 18z GFS and 0Z NAM both give hope for some snow with a second shortwave on Wednesday. This feels like one of those setups with lots of ways to fail. Should at least be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Well, where are we this morning with this Mon-Tue threat? Anxiously awaiting the 12z to note any changes in track. Finally some synoptic snow in the Albany Schenectady Troy region Monday night?? Then do we seal it in with a layer of freezing rain/sleet early Tuesday? So then if it changes to rain it can run right off the top of it before ending as snow late? Lot's of questions with the storm track yet I realize. Trying to make the best of a not so great storm track in a horrible Capital District snow year. I'm admittedly wearing my propeller cap this morning. This lack of snow is killing me (us?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Well, where are we this morning with this Mon-Tue threat? Anxiously awaiting the 12z to note any changes in track. Finally some synoptic snow in the Albany Schenectady Troy region Monday night?? Then do we seal it in with a layer of freezing rain/sleet early Tuesday? So then if it changes to rain it can run right off the top of it before ending as snow late? Lot's of questions with the storm track yet I realize. Trying to make the best of a not so great storm track in a horrible Capital District snow year. I'm admittedly wearing my propeller cap this morning. This lack of snow is killing me (us?). Pretty close on the 12z GFS, NAM, CMC.. probably a couple hours of snow followed by several hours of rain then back to a little snow on the backside. Your elevation and little bit of extra longitude will definitely help in this one though. I don't like how the UKMET is still pretty amped and a rainer for us as the euro will probably follow suit. It looks like the the second short wave is becoming much more potent, we'll have to see how the euro handles the interaction between the two waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Pretty close on the 12z GFS, NAM, CMC.. probably a couple hours of snow followed by several hours of rain then back to a little snow on the backside. Your elevation and little bit of extra longitude will definitely help in this one though. I don't like how the UKMET is still pretty amped and a rainer for us as the euro will probably follow suit. It looks like the the second short wave is becoming much more potent, we'll have to see how the euro handles the interaction between the two waves. I was a little disappointed by the CMC. It brings a lot of rain, especially for me east of ALB. The GFS was already a lot of freezing rain for me, although almost perfect for just N and W of ALB. I think we're headed for a snow to mix to heavy rain scenario. I'm not confident about backside snow at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 I was a little disappointed by the CMC. It brings a lot of rain, especially for me east of ALB. The GFS was already a lot of freezing rain for me, although almost perfect for just N and W of ALB. I think we're headed for a snow to mix to heavy rain scenario. I'm not confident about backside snow at this point. Yeah true I can't really remember the last time backside snow panned out around here, and this will be too progressive for anything notable. Won't matter at all if the euro is right, it takes the sfc low over UCA as we get into the dry slot for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 The NAM would find a way to give parts of NC more snow than ALB . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The NAM would find a way to give parts of NC more snow than ALB . I think a lot of that snow along the coastal plane is overdone. Probably mixed precip. instead of snow. But whoever gets snow will get more than ALB, because I don't think we'll get much. <1" The last few runs of the American models are back to playing up the s/w interaction. Not a huge surprise considering the Euro/UK solutions. Pretty rough for the northeast ski resorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 A few SREF members from 09z were still showing the weaker low sliding east of us. There must be some narrow synoptic threshold between the weaker east scenario and the wrapped up CNY low. Ensemble guidance was oscillating between those disparate solutions for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Outside of mountain upslope there doesn't appear to be much to look for out to 10 days or so. I've gotten most of my snow this year from upslope however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I suppose I'd be more bothered if I actually had a snowpack to worry about. I'm back in my old stomping grounds in the CT hills today. I only needed to drive a few hours southeast to find a decent snowpack (still several inches here) . Brutal stretch for Eastern Upstate NY. Heck, even past several years where we've had decent snow at times, we've been on the fringe with southern and eastern areas getting better. It'll start to even out one of these years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 A few SREF members from 09z were still showing the weaker low sliding east of us. There must be some narrow synoptic threshold between the weaker east scenario and the wrapped up CNY low. Ensemble guidance was oscillating between those disparate solutions for days. You can really see when the GFS crossed that threshold between 12z yesterday and 00z today. Just glancing at ensemble sensitivity plots from the 00z GEFS, it appears that there was considerable sensitivity regarding the amplitude of the lead impulse (currently over eastern Iowa), and then of course the amplitude of the following s/w. The further east solutions may have been locating the lead impulse further south and east allowing the upstream flow to flatten just enough for the sfc low to slide to our SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 -SN and 10F. The radar is spotty but it looks like winter outside. Beautiful really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 According to the 12z Euro, one week from today ALB will surpass 1912-1913 seasonal snowfall. Lets see how well that works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Root for another eastern New England special? If ALB's gone this far, might as well break the record. I know its an awful lot to ask with half of Feb and all of March still to contend with however. According to the 12z Euro, one week from today ALB will surpass 1912-1913 seasonal snowfall. Lets see how well that works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 Root for another eastern New England special? If ALB's gone this far, might as well break the record. I know its an awful lot to ask with half of Feb and all of March still to contend with however. Hah give me nothing or give me a 2' storm. None of this 1-3" crap that melts the next day.. speaking of which, there's 1.1" down so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 There were impressive temp. gradients this morning on my way to work. 45 in East Poestenkill, 29 in Wynantskill, and 25 in Troy. The temp on my car thermometer dropped 16 degrees in 4 miles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 There were impressive temp. gradients this morning on my way to work. 45 in East Poestenkill, 29 in Wynantskill, and 25 in Troy. The temp on my car thermometer dropped 16 degrees in 4 miles! Wow, goes to show how well the valleys lock in the cold air. Can't lock it in anymore.. ALB just jumped from 36 to 55 in the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Another decent shot at snow next week. We need some better mojo. This threat looks to have high end potential but as always you have to keep expectations reasonable and hope for a plowable snowfall first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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