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MegaMike

Forecasting Sustained Winds and High/Low Temperatures

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I'm being asked to forecast high temperatures, low temperatures, and sustained winds (at the surface) and I'm having difficulty finding accurate forecast models to predict each condition. So I'm asking what everyone uses to forecast these individual variables.

 

Thus far, I've been using GFS MOS data and SREF plumes only.

 

Any help will be greatly appreciated!!!

 

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I'm being asked to forecast high temperatures, low temperatures, and sustained winds (at the surface) and I'm having difficulty finding accurate forecast models to predict each condition. So I'm asking what everyone uses to forecast these individual variables.

 

Thus far, I've been using GFS MOS data and SREF plumes only.

 

Any help will be greatly appreciated!!!

Let me guess, this is for the WxChallenge?

 

Without giving away too much, you could use numerical models from http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ to help.

Try looking at 925mb winds (use meteorology to approximate lower winds) for contours and 2m theta-e will give you wind barbs. Knowing e-Wall, they'll probably include NAM floaters over the forecast cities as well that will include 10m winds: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/regions12z.html

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I'm being asked to forecast high temperatures, low temperatures, and sustained winds (at the surface) and I'm having difficulty finding accurate forecast models to predict each condition. So I'm asking what everyone uses to forecast these individual variables.

 

Thus far, I've been using GFS MOS data and SREF plumes only.

 

Any help will be greatly appreciated!!!

Looking at the other MOS runs in combination with the dynamic models, actual observed weather is also a way to forecast in the short term.

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remember a couple of things here to worry about. gradient winds, and other forces that counteract the gradient.

 

When it comes to the gradient, the raw grid data is best to use there.

 

but for your "other than gradient", the biggest factor for that is terrain. and while MOS can take care of most of it, sometimes, to get a feel for the place, best thing to do is dig up the "Wind Rose" for the particular airport as well as look at a topographic map. The wind rose will show you the tendencies of what wind directions are more likely than others, which is what's used for runway configuration.

 

using the tendencies in combination with the grid and MOS data, you should be able to make a good estimate for the forecast.

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You're correct, Quincy! It's for WxChallenge. lol

 

I totally agree with you, Jim! I compiled a small sample mean for high temperatures, low temperatures, and wind speed for Sandberg, CA (first location for WxChallenge) and I calculated the average bias for each condition (12z NAM, 12z GFS, and 18z GFS). For winds, the 12z GFS MOS has a bias of -4 m/hr... So if I choose to use it, I'll just adjust my forecast by +4 m/hr.

 

Thanks for your help everyone!!!

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