Guest Pamela Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 So far this winter is like a 2nd rate version of last season. New England is going to get smoked yet again while we either get ice or rain. I think we're going to get one more big storm before the pattern relaxes and I have a good feeling about the 2/12-2/20 time frame. "Coming in second wouldn't be the worst; as long as no one else was first!" ___Pamela Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 6 degrees here in Bronxville, NY; with a stiff northwest wind around 20/mph+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 II had to really dig to find this, models have light snow for Wednesday night and then there's potential for something on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 GEFS says its's going to be cold for the rest of FEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This winter will just about be the end of using the October snowcover index to predict the AO for the winter. What a fail this year. I moved this into here since I think it's a convo better suited for a pattern thread. I followed the snow cover stuff, for the first time, fairly closely this year. I agree that the correlation for AO looks like it needs some work. There was also some discussion about the correlation to cold air outbreaks related to snowcover. I'm wondering what other people think of this, because that part seems to have worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I moved this into here since I think it's a convo better suited for a pattern thread. I followed the snow cover stuff, for the first time, fairly closely this year. I agree that the correlation for AO looks like it needs some work. There was also some discussion about the correlation to cold air outbreaks related to snowcover. I'm wondering what other people think of this, because that part seems to have worked out.They're doing a plethora of research on this recently and I'll be very interested to see what the data shows for this year. One of the things they're also indirectly researching is how the AO and NAO interlink with each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 They're doing a plethora of research on this recently and I'll be very interested to see what the data shows for this year. One of the things they're also indirectly researching is how the AO and NAO interlink with each other.Also what I will say about Cohen's research is that while the mechanism may be incorrect (saying the AO is almost forced negative by the Siberian high and snow cover), we still had remarkably increased cold late in the winter as the correlation would indicate. Correlation is not causation however, and the mechanism through which they believe this to happen may be completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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