The plain and simple truth about models

[WEATHER53]

Is that they are So Much Better than just 5 years ago.  You really no longer see the wild 3-5 day variations of low off GA coast, no low thru Ohio Valley, no low thru NY State and off Long Island.

At the same time the reliability of seasonal indexes for mid and long range forecasting has taken a hit. Information is still really coagulating on indexes and the fact that it might be a strong nino no longer can be taken to mean mild and snowless. Last year, the idea of a negative NAO being a requirement for snow and cold took a big hit and in fact one of the researchers here presented info from the last 30 years that shows -NAO is generally needed for snow but not so much for cold. We are still learning about the indexes and the fault of many long range forecasters is, I think, putting too many indexes into the forecasting soup.

[Bob Chill]

Is that they are So Much Better than just 5 years ago.  You really no longer see the wild 3-5 day variations of low off GA coast, no low thru Ohio Valley, no low thru NY State and off Long Island.

At the same time the reliability of seasonal indexes for mid and long range forecasting has taken a hit. Information is still really coagulating on indexes and the fact that it might be a strong nino no longer can be taken to mean mild and snowless. Last year, the idea of a negative NAO being a requirement for snow and cold took a big hit and in fact one of the researchers here presented info from the last 30 years that shows -NAO is generally needed for snow but not so much for cold. We are still learning about the indexes and the fault of many long range forecasters is, I think, putting too many indexes into the forecasting soup.

Wes has posted an excellent scatter plot multiple times that show the correlation of dc snows hinges much more on the AO than NAO. The NAO is what makes monsters though. With only a couple exceptions when it snowed with a neutral or positive AO, every time the AO went negative this winter it snowed. 

 

Without a -NAO we won't get a NC-ME storm very often. We didn't get a single one this year. Luckily we ended up firmly in the crosshairs of progressive flow storms for an extended period. Not sure when that will happen again. 

[Huffwx]

Wes has posted an excellent scatter plot multiple times that show the correlation of dc snows hinges much more on the AO than NAO. The NAO is what makes monsters though. With only a couple exceptions when it snowed with a neutral or positive AO, every time the AO went negative this winter it snowed. 

 

Without a -NAO we won't get a NC-ME storm very often. We didn't get a single one this year. Luckily we ended up firmly in the crosshairs of progressive flow storms for an extended period. Not sure when that will happen again. 

 

 

How far north did Feb 13 go? It was deep south up the coast-- just wasnt huge up north. 

[needbiggerboat]

I like that models are not as skinny as years ago....I would like to see more of normal height, tho.