Severe Weather Text Product Game

[metalicwx366]

6/10/10???? I was waiting for someone to post one lol.

[Thunder Road]

6/10/10???? I was waiting for someone to post one lol.

 

Well it was thewxmann's turn, haha.

 

And yup.  I was hoping the mention of strong tornadoes would throw people off, but I guess not.

 

Only four reports from the day in that region - and all EF-0 - but man that Last Chance supercell was a beast.

 

 

Ok, your turn!

[metalicwx366]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

Xxxxxxxx CDT xxx x xxxx

VALID xxxxxx–xxxxx

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IA TO PORTIONS NW TX...

...SYNOPSIS...

AS SEVERAL VORTICITY LOBES PHASE/CONSOLIDATE OVER NRN

PLAINS...MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS FCST TO EVOLVE OVER BLACK HILLS

REGION BY START OF PERIOD...DEEPENING SLIGHTLY AND PROCEEDING EWD

ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL SD BEFORE xxxxx NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE

TROUGH -- NOW APPARENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND PROFILER/VWP

DATA FROM NERN CO SSEWD OVER ERN HIGH PLAINS -- IS FCST TO SHIFT

NEWD TO EXTEND FROM WRN IA ACROSS WRN OZARKS REGION BY xxxxxxx...THEN

NEWD OVER UPPER MS VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THIS

FEATURE...PRONOUNCED JET MAX ALOFT -- ALREADY APCHG 130 KT BASED ON

Xxxxx 250-MB ANALYSIS -- IS STRONGER THAN HAS BEEN PROGGED BY

PREVIOUS RUNS OF OPERATIONAL NAM AND SIMILAR TO xxxxxx SPECTRAL

FCST. JET AXIS SHOULD SHIFT/EXPAND ESEWD OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES AND

SRN KS THROUGH EVENING...WHILE DIRECTION OF MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW

BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL WITH GRADUAL CYCLONIC CURVATURE.

AT SFC...NRN-PLAINS LOW IS FCST TO BECOME ESSENTIALLY VERTICALLY

STACKED WITH CYCLONE ALOFT EARLY IN PERIOD...MIGRATING SLIGHTLY NEWD

OVER ND AND N OF MID-UPPER LOW THROUGH xxxxx. SFC

TROUGH/WIND-SHIFT LINE AND WEAK FRONT SHOULD ARC SWD/SWWD FROM THAT

LOW DURING AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING SOME DIURNAL TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS

PORTIONS SD AND NRN/WRN NEB. DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EWD DURING

DAY...REACHING LATE-AFTN POSITION FROM NRN COAHUILA NNEWD ACROSS

W-CENTRAL TX...W-CENTRAL OK AND S-CENTRAL KS...BEFORE RETREATING

NWWD ACROSS NRN OK AND SRN KS DURING EVENING.

...PLAINS STATES TO UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST...

PRIMARY CONCERN ATTM IS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS TO

DEVELOP INVOF DRYLINE DURING LATE AFTN AFTER STG/SUSTAINED SFC

HEATING AND MOVE EWD...OFFERING RISK OF VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND

TORNADOES. NARROW SECTOR OF VERY FAVORABLE SUPERCELL-SUPPORTING

PARAMETER SPACE IS APPARENT FROM ABOUT E-CENTRAL KS SWWD TO RED

RIVER REGION OF OK AND N TX...FOR ANY TSTMS THAT CAN FORM AND

PERSIST TO MATURITY. ROBUST MOIST-SECTOR AIR IS FCST AHEAD OF

DRYLINE...WITH SFC DEW POINTS RANGING FROM MID-60S TO LOW-70S F

SUPPORTING MLCAPE IN 3000-5000 J/KG RANGE...LYING BENEATH 55-65 KT

EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. HODOGRAPHS ARE EXPECTED TO ENLARGE

CONSIDERABLY IN 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME OVER AREA OF LARGEST HAIL/TORNADO

PROBABILITIES...AS LLJ STRENGTHENS. UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAY...GEOMETRY

OF FLOW RELATED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL RENDER

DEEP-SHEAR AND MEAN-WIND VECTORS NEARLY ORTHOGONAL TO

DRYLINE...INDICATING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORM CHARACTER

AND SUPERCELL MODE.

HOWEVER...SOME CAVEATS ARE EVIDENT THAT MAKE THREAT TOO CONDITIONAL

TO INTRODUCE MDT-RISK PROBABILITIES YET...AND WHICH ALSO CAST GREAT

UNCERTAINTY ON SVR POTENTIAL FARTHER N OVER MO VALLEY..NRN PLAINS

AND CORN BELT. THESE INCLUDE...

1. ABUNDANT PRIOR AND ONGOING CONVECTION FROM ERN OK/OZARKS AREA NWD

ACROSS MO VALLEY AND NWWD OVER PORTIONS KS...EARLY IN PERIOD. THIS

ACTIVITY HAS OVERTURNED AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THAT

REGION...LOWERING DEW POINTS. RESULTING MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER

WILL ADVECT NWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS...IA...DAKOTAS AND MO VALLEY

REGION WITH FRAGMENTED AND MODULATED MOISTURE FIELD...CHARACTERIZED

BY EMBEDDED RIBBONS AND POCKETS OF LOW-THETAE AIR.

2. LACK OF WELL-DEFINED FOCI FOR INITIATION IN THAT AIR

MASS...ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT I-70 NWD.

3. HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGHOUT

AFTERNOON OVER SRN PLAINS...WITH WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL

MOTIONS.

4. CAPPING WILL INHIBIT TSTM COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY FROM RED RIVER

AREA SWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL/SW TX. ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP OFF

DRYLINE OVER TX STILL WILL POSE SVR WIND/HAIL RISK BEFORE NOCTURNAL

DISSIPATION.

5. NARROWNESS OF MOST FAVORABLE MOIST SECTOR MAY LIMIT TIME WINDOW

FOR SUPERCELLS.

[Thunder Road]

5/4/07?

 

Don't know if that was only a SLGT with the morning outlook, but the surface sort-of matches the synopsis.

[thewxmann]

Sorry guys, I got caught up with work last week and forgot about this thread.  In the future if I'm gone just post a new one w/o me.

 

As for this one, there's A LOT of rich clues. But none of them aggregated together ring a bell. The type of setup with a bowling ball draped at H5 in the northern plains, and a cold front extending down southwest across the central and southern plains, is very common.

 

A few of my guesses are from pre-2005, whose risk areas were outlined by cities, so no to those.

 

Three clues are big: narrow moist sector, linear storms the day before, and convection over eastern OK. Unfortunately all the rest of my guess dates are missing one of those three characteristics.

 

So I use the process of elimination, and take a date that roughly matches the geographical region of the outlook, but whose events I know relatively little about: 05/13/09.

[metalicwx366]

Nope to both.

[andyhb]

5/30/13.

[metalicwx366]

Yep that's it Andy.

I somehow posted 5/30. I thought I posted 5/31.

[andyhb]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER ___

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

115 PM CDT ______________

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

EASTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS _______ AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL 900

PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF

POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD

ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...______...______...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING/INCREASING FROM

SW-NE ACROSS WW INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS AXIS OF MODERATE

INSTABILITY SPREADS ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY/SRN IL.

CAPPING IS EVIDENT AT 18Z OVER CENTRAL IL...BUT THIS WILL ERODE

THROUGH THE DAY. VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS

WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

...EVANS

[Thunder Road]

5/13/09 (Kirksville)?

[andyhb]

Not Kirksville, nope.

[tornadotony]

5/6/03

[thewxmann]

These cases are getting harder. This one could be almost anything...

 

First guess: 4/22/11 (St. Louis)?

[andyhb]

Nope, neither of those.

[thewxmann]

Second guess from me (which follows from the first guess): 4/19/11.

[andyhb]

Second guess from me (which follows from the first guess): 4/19/11.

 

Nope.

 

Here's a hint, it was rather out of season (which will probably give it away).

[thewxmann]

If it weren't for CDT I'd be guessing 01/07/08 for this.

 

To me, the "out of season" would suggest 09/22/06.

[andyhb]

If it weren't for CDT I'd be guessing 01/07/08 for this.

 

To me, the "out of season" would suggest 09/22/06.

 

Bingo.

[thewxmann]

A not-to-difficult one methinks:

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER ___
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
______ CDT ______________

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

A LARGE PART OF KANSAS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS ______ ________ FROM ______ UNTIL ______ CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

EXTREMELY DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...LARGE HAIL
TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST OF
GARDEN CITY KANSAS TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CHANUTE KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW ___...WW ___...WW
____...WW ___...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
IN WAA AREA ALONG SRN FRINGE OF UPR DISTURBANCE AMPLIFYING ESE
ACROSS THE CNTRL HI PLNS. COMBINATION OF INCREASINGLY RICH MOIST
INFLOW...DEEP EML...AND SEASONABLY STRONG/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY
MID/UPR LVL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID STORM INTENSIFICATION ONCE
CELLS FORM. ALTHOUGH A RISK FOR ISOLD TORNADOES WILL EXIST DURING
EARLY STAGES OF STORM DEVELOPMENT...SFC-BASED CIN AND LIKELIHOOD FOR
NUMEROUS STORM INTERACTIONS ONCE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SUGGEST THAT MAIN
SVR THREAT EARLY-ON WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL. SIZABLE DCAPE SHOULD
FOSTER SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION INTO A FORWARD-PROPGATING MCS...WITH
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DMGG WIND/HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29035.


...CORFIDI

[andyhb]

6/20/11?

 

Nvm, that was a bust on the PDS Svr Watch.

[metalicwx366]

5/8/09?

[thewxmann]

5/8/09?

 

Yup, correct.

 

I always talk about how bullish Corfidi is but his PDS call shined on this day. As late as 20Z 05/07 there was a SLGT risk with a 15% damaging wind risk over the area. He issued the watch with only a single ongoing supercell in NW KS and still a SLGT risk out over the central Plains. Until the derecho had matured east of I-35, associated MD's were still bearish relative to the PDS label on the parent watch.

[metalicwx366]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK xxxx xxx xxx xxx xx xxxx

VALID xxxxxx- xxxxxx

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES...

...SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO THE CONVECTIVE THREAT BEING A LOW/TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH TIME...THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT RATHER QUICKLY NEWD...REACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE.

AT THE SURFACE...AN UPPER LOW WILL ALSO SHIFT NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. A TRAILING COLD FRONT -- STRETCHING SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD -- WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY...WHILE THE SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT CROSSES THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...THE LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD NEAR THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO EXPECTED FARTHER E/NE WITHIN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. DESPITE LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK -- PARTIALLY DUE TO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM-ADVECTIVE CONVECTION.

WHILE THIS MODEST INSTABILITY -- AND THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM WELL TO THE N OF THIS AREA -- SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND THUS OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...A VERY FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AS WINDS VEER/INCREASE STRONGLY WITH HEIGHT. THUS...STRONGER/ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE OF STORMS --PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

WHILE MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...GREATER SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES. AGAIN -- THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED MITIGATING FACTORS ARE A CONCERN...WILL INTRODUCE 10% TORNADO PROBABILITY DUE TO THE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER.

..GOSS..

[andyhb]

2/10/13?

[Thunder Road]

 

 

AT THE SURFACE...AN UPPER LOW

huh?

 

 

Anyway... 2/10/13?

[metalicwx366]

Correct. That beast EF4 Hattiesburg tornado. Surprisingly there were no deaths but dozens of injuries.

[andyhb]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1028 AM CST _______________

VALID _______ - _______

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AL...FL

PANHANDLE AND SWRN GA...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN GA AND SC COASTAL

REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD

INTO SERN STATES AND CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...

WV IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL AR AND

SHOULD MOVE ESEWD INTO NWRN MS THIS EVENING...AS 100 KT MID LEVEL

JET MAX MOVES FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE NWRN GULF. THE UPPER LOW WILL

SHIFT ENEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX

ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVES INTO THE SERN STATES.

OCCLUDED 992 MB SFC LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL AR SHOULD TRACK AHEAD OF

THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE TN VALLEY REGION TODAY AND INTO THE LOWER

OH VALLEY TONIGHT. COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP

THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE

SERN ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK THU.

...CNTRL GULF CST INTO TN/GA/FL/CAROLINAS...

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND

EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF AL...SWRN GA AND THE

FL PANHANDLE WHERE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST. WIND

FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE

KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK

AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE

LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BOUNDARY WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE NEAR 70F.

THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NEWD INTO SERN AL AND SWRN GA THIS

AFTERNOON. MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH 1KM SHEAR NEAR 40

KT WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.

ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR WILL BE EQUALLY STRONG NORTH OF THIS AREA

...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LESSEN THE

TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THE

SHEAR AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CERTAINLY

SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND EVEN TORNADOES.

ANOTHER ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY

ACROSS THE SERN GA AND SC COASTAL AREAS AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF

APPROACHING JET MAX AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE INLAND FROM THE GULF

STREAM. THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP/LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTENING

BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES IN THIS AREA.

FARTHER NW...AN AREA OF LOW-TOPPED/ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE

LOCATED AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IN ERN AR. IF SOME CLEARING/HEATING

CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WOULD BE

SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL AND

POSSIBLY EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO...GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE

STRONG VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.

BROAD ZONE OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD MAINTAIN STRONG/

SEVERE STORMS EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...BUT

COLD AIR DAMMING LIKELY WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED STORMS...AND SHOULD

DIMINISH SEVERE POTENTIAL...DESPITE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG WIND

FIELDS.

..IMY/CROSBIE.. ____________

[thewxmann]

11/15/06?

[andyhb]

Yup.

[metalicwx366]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

xxxx xx xxx xxx x xxxx

VALID xxxxxxx - xxxxxxx

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE MO...FAR WRN

TN...AR...NW MS...NRN LA AND FAR NE TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN

PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...MID MS VALLEY....LOWER MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY

AND TN VALLEY...

...SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE GREAT

PLAINS TODAY AS A POWERFUL 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS

THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET

CORE MOVES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR

LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM SE KS SWWD ACROSS CNTRL OK INTO NORTH TX.

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP A SEVERE THREAT AROUND DAYBREAK AS A

BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE

APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD QUICKLY

INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH A SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPING AND MOVING EWD

ACROSS THE OZARKS AND ARKLATEX REGION THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS

WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A LARGE AREA AND A

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE THIS

AFTERNOON FROM SERN MO SWWD ACROSS AR INTO NRN LA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NEAR THE BOOTHEEL OF MO SWWD

TO LITTLE ROCK AND SHREVEPORT INCREASE SFC TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S

F ALLOWING FOR INSTABILITY TO APPROACH MODERATE LEVELS. IN

ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME STRONG AS THE RIGHT SIDE OF

THE MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE THIS

AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60 TO 70 KT ALONG WITH LONG LOOPED

HODOGRAPHS SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL AND TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. THE

GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST WITH DISCRETE CELLS THAT

INITIATE AHEAD OF THE SQUALL-LINE FROM SE MO EXTENDING SWD ACROSS

ECNTRL AR WHERE A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH BOWS AND ROTATING STORMS

EMBEDDED IN THE SQUALL-LINE ITSELF. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC ARE

FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50 KT SUGGESTING THE LINE WILL BE VERY

EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ABOVE

70 KT MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREA WITH THE

GREATEST THREAT IN ECNTRL AR WHERE THE GFS SUGGESTS THE APEX OF A

LARGE-SCALE BOW COULD DEVELOP. MODEL FORECASTS MOVE THE SQUALL-LINE

EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AFTER 06z

SUGGESTING A WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH

MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

...MID MS VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY....

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY AS A 90

TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET TRANSLATES EWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL

PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO THIS

MORNING WITH CONVECTION RAPIDLY EXPANDING NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS

VALLEY AROUND MIDDAY. AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET

OVERSPREADS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPMENT

SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS CNTRL MO WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED LINE-SEGMENT

MOVING EWD ACROSS THE VICINITY OF ST LOUIS EARLY THIS EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 03Z IN THE VICINITY OF ST LOUIS INCREASE

SBCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AS 0-6 KM SHEAR REACHES 60 KT. THIS ALONG

WITH VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXCEEDING 70 KT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE

FOR WIND DAMAGE. A SPLIT MID-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE IMPLIES THAT LIFT

WILL BE VERY STRONG HELPING TO ORGANIZE A WELL-DEVELOP SQUALL-LINE.

THIS LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY TONIGHT

WHERE THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND

TORNADOES EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..BROYLES/MOSIER..