hypatia Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Today is pretty great! I've been experiencing rain and thunder for at least the past half-hour. Reminds me of summer a little! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 the storms are like those in summer that pop up move through and its sunny the rest of the day. makes me wonder if the wet season comes early this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 the storms are like those in summer that pop up move through and its sunny the rest of the day. makes me wonder if the wet season comes early this year your lips to mama natures ears. Early May is about as early as we can expect the true onset in South FL. I have been shafted by today's activity thus far but it all does look glorious on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypatia Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 your lips to mama natures ears. Early May is about as early as we can expect the true onset in South FL. I have been shafted by today's activity thus far but it all does look glorious on radar There was a nice hailer out in west-central Florida today that must have given someone a little bit of excitement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I advise you all to take full advantage of the cold front this Sunday! This could end up being the last real appreciable cold spell of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 At 4:40 this morning it was 75. At 5:20 it was 55. That's 20 degrees in about 40 minutes. Now down to 49. If you go to this link http://fawn.ifas.ufl.edu/data/graphic.php it has all the FAWN stations. All the temp graphs mirror one another. Just a real sharp drop off this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted March 4, 2012 Author Share Posted March 4, 2012 At 4:40 this morning it was 75. At 5:20 it was 55. That's 20 degrees in about 40 minutes. Now down to 49. If you go to this link http://fawn.ifas.ufl...ata/graphic.php it has all the FAWN stations. All the temp graphs mirror one another. Just a real sharp drop off this morning. sweet link! Here is mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flweathernerd Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 I flew up to Tampa today to visit my dad and we got absolutely hammered as soon as we landed. Seabreeze storms blew up all the way up and down the west coast of Florida today and they were quite strong! We held at the gate for 40 minutes before the ramp could open up and we could be brought in. I couldn't even see the wing of the plane anymore it was raining so hard. Hopefully this is a sign of good things to come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Got down to 64.5 last night here. That might be the last time the mercury drops below 65 until October. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Yeah, it got to 51 here earlier this week. Now the dry season really starts. April and May set the stage for fire season. Hopefully the recent rains will keep that threat low. Rainy season up here doesn't start till about the 2nd week in June. Man this has been one lousy Winter in regard to storms. I think I had maybe 1 squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 Yeah, it got to 51 here earlier this week. Now the dry season really starts. April and May set the stage for fire season. Hopefully the recent rains will keep that threat low. Rainy season up here doesn't start till about the 2nd week in June. Man this has been one lousy Winter in regard to storms. I think I had maybe 1 squall line. Rainy season by me starts usually the second or third week of May. Earlier in extreme SF. It's like a rolling wave lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 Damn I was hoping for one last good shot of rain. That line came through and split right in the middle leaving me high and dry. Oh well, some folks got a lot of rain today so I guess that's good. Start the count down. Hurricane season is 2 months away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Got 2.5" of rain on Saturday from that tornado-warned storm over Miami-Dade. That was more than half the March rainfall. Was a really nice storm, great inflow and a really strong updraft for awhile. Last year wet season didn't start in the Miami area until June 12-13 (or at least those were the first two days with more than a trace of rain). Usually it starts a few weeks earlier, but it was so dry last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Got 2.5" of rain on Saturday from that tornado-warned storm over Miami-Dade. That was more than half the March rainfall. Was a really nice storm, great inflow and a really strong updraft for awhile. Last year wet season didn't start in the Miami area until June 12-13 (or at least those were the first two days with more than a trace of rain). Usually it starts a few weeks earlier, but it was so dry last year. I was at the beach when it struck. Didn't have the chance to take any pics, but it had pretty good structure. Could be some more convection later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 ~90 °F here, feels like an oven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Topped out at 92.6 today. Not too bad out with any humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 Finally some interesting weather tomorrow! Most of today's guidance would suggest a linear broken squall-line type threat over the panhandle, with multi-cell clusters over the peninsula. From SPC: DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT WED APR 04 2012 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES AND FL... ...SYNOPSIS... CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT WILL LIKELY BE OVER AR BY 12Z THURSDAY WILL ADVANCE ESEWD AS IT PHASES WITH AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE AN E-W ORIENTED FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE SERN STATES AND EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS SWWD ALONG THE GULF COASTAL AREA BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. ...SERN STATES... SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD REMAINS CONDITIONAL OVER A PART OF THE EXISTING SLIGHT RISK AREA DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MS AND AL WITHIN ZONE OF DPVA JUST AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THESE STORMS WILL EXIST WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST MUCAPE AND 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...BUT WINDS IN THE SFC-3KM LAYER SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION...AND THE EARLY STORMS COULD POSE SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. EXTENT OF THE EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL DICTATE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL LATER IN THE DAY...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WHERE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING OCCURS IN REMAINING PARTS OF WARM SECTOR. MODEST WLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD TRANSPORT RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FL PENINSULA. MID-UPPER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL JET WITHIN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. THUS THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ELSEWHERE...A FEW MULTICELL STORMS WITH A THREAT OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SC INTO THE TN VALLEY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND STORMS DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE E-W ORIENTED FRONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 It will be interesting to see how long that convection over the Gulf can sustain itself. Those in the Tampa area might want to start paying attention in an hour or two if it's still organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 been here at Disney World since last friday and have had several rains with decent mounts. Not dry here with more rain coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flweathernerd Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 It will be interesting to see how long that convection over the Gulf can sustain itself. Those in the Tampa area might want to start paying attention in an hour or two if it's still organized. Severe thunderstorm warning out for Pinellas, Hillsborough and Manatee counties. Line looks pretty healthy. Hopefully it's nice and strong when it gets here (I hope.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 In Northeast St Pete at this time---Awaiting the leading edge----- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 The storm has diminished in intensity...Moderate rain , some gusty winds----no severe conditions in my area---Just for the record, I am a Storm Spotter for ILN----- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 It will be interesting to see how long that convection over the Gulf can sustain itself. Those in the Tampa area might want to start paying attention in an hour or two if it's still organized. Man that was one heck of a MCS that came out of the northern gulf yesterday. A 54mph gust was recorded when it went through the Keys early this morning and a 45 mph gust when it went through Tampa last night. Those things have always amazed me in that they can just somehow sustain themselves and have so much energy within them. Rougue storms for sure. About 2 this morning I was watching that line come into Key West. I sure wish I could have been on the beach to enjoy that one. SPC has us in the slight chance for severe weather today. Hopefully this afternoon will get interesting. On a side note my cousin in Dallas had his car destroyed by softball size hail from this same system when it went through there. All the windows were broken out and there were huge dents all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Man that was one heck of a MCS that came out of the northern gulf yesterday. A 54mph gust was recorded when it went through the Keys early this morning and a 45 mph gust when it went through Tampa last night. Those things have always amazed me in that they can just somehow sustain themselves and have so much energy within them. Rougue storms for sure. About 2 this morning I was watching that line come into Key West. I sure wish I could have been on the beach to enjoy that one. SPC has us in the slight chance for severe weather today. Hopefully this afternoon will get interesting. On a side note my cousin in Dallas had his car destroyed by softball size hail from this same system when it went through there. All the windows were broken out and there were huge dents all over. It hit the Gulf coast and the Keys pretty hard! Not much over here in Miami, just a little wind and a quick burst of heavy rain early this morning. I'm curious to see if the atmosphere can recover in time for some afternoon convection. There's a lot of subsidence in the wake of that MCS, so probably best chances for organized convection later today would be over the northern half of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 This is a snippet from Jvilles morning discusssion. Guess we'll have to see what happens today. Do not have a real good feel for coverage of thunderstorms today. Some of the models have backed off considerably on thunderstorm coverage with some of the mesoscale models showing very little activity. Current thinking however is that scattered to numerous thunderstorms will move east into our Georgia zones around 3 to 4 PM and quickly move across southeast Georgia late this afternoon...moving offshore by 8 PM. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats. Will wait until all of the latest model data is in but we may be able to back off on probability of precipitation south of Interstate 10 today. Looks like this area will remain mostly precipitation free until late tonight when the upper low dives into south central Georgia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Man that was one heck of a MCS that came out of the northern gulf yesterday. A 54mph gust was recorded when it went through the Keys early this morning and a 45 mph gust when it went through Tampa last night. Those things have always amazed me in that they can just somehow sustain themselves and have so much energy within them. Rougue storms for sure. About 2 this morning I was watching that line come into Key West. I sure wish I could have been on the beach to enjoy that one. SPC has us in the slight chance for severe weather today. Hopefully this afternoon will get interesting. On a side note my cousin in Dallas had his car destroyed by softball size hail from this same system when it went through there. All the windows were broken out and there were huge dents all over. How did I not notice an MCS hitting the Keys!? Anyways, NWS Miami is saying we could have some strong to severe storms today. That'd be nice considering I barely see thunderstorms in Wisconsin, and when they do hit they're moving so fast they last 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Just like yesterday, there's very strong convection over the Gulf. We'll have to wait till it gets closer to the Tampa or Key West radar's to tell for sure, but it looks like there may be embedded supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Just like yesterday, there's very strong convection over the Gulf. We'll have to wait till it gets closer to the Tampa or Key West radar's to tell for sure, but it looks like there may be embedded supercells. Sure looks like an intense complex of storms as of 8:30 pm, very interesting how the storms aren't arranged in a squall line in the northeast part of it. Might be an MCV and multiple bands of convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 SPC mesoanalysis shows this has 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE to work with over the Gulf of Mexico. The CAPE is lower over the peninsula but I bet the maritime high CAPE air will be advected in ahead of this. I'm optimistic but it's never a sure thing that these sort of things make it to Florida in one piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 SPC mesoanalysis shows this has 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE to work with over the Gulf of Mexico. The CAPE is lower over the peninsula but I bet the maritime high CAPE air will be advected in ahead of this. I'm optimistic but it's never a sure thing that these sort of things make it to Florida in one piece. Looks like it's going to be a close call! Cells on the northern flank are falling apart quickly now, but some stronger cells on the southern end still look like they could still make things interesting for the southern tip of the state. The 00Z MFL sounding has nearly 2000 Sb-CAPE to work with, it's just too bad we're so far out ahead of the large-scale forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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