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Where does this Warm December Rank and what it means for January?

ChescoWx

By ChescoWx,
in Philadelphia Region

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted

As we draw toward the end of the year. I went back through my database for Chester County (1894 to Present) to see how this December stacked up with the warmest December's on record and then what the next month (January) look like. Overall we need a little more work this week to try to crack the below top 5 warmest. Of note...... not one of the following January's featured above normal snow (8.7") although January 2002 was close

Warmest Ranks (+/- degrees to normal)

Dec 1982 (+8.8) = Jan '83 +4.3 and 6.0" of snow

Dec 2006 (+7.9) = Jan '07 +5.5 and 4.0" of snow

Dec 1931 (+6.5) = Jan '32 +12.7 and no snow

Dec 2001 (+6.3) = Jan '02 +6.1 and 8.1" of snow

Dec 1998 (+6.3) = Jan '99 +2.6 and 5.8" of snow

Dec 2011 (+6.2) through yesterday

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

As we draw toward the end of the year. I went back through my database for Chester County (1894 to Present) to see how this December stacked up with the warmest December's on record and then what the next month (January) look like. Overall we need a little more work this week to try to crack the below top 5 warmest. Of note...... not one of the following January's featured above normal snow (8.7") although January 2002 was close

Warmest Ranks (+/- degrees to normal)

Dec 1982 (+8.8) = Jan '83 +4.3 and 6.0" of snow

Dec 2006 (+7.9) = Jan '07 +5.5 and 4.0" of snow

Dec 1931 (+6.5) = Jan '32 +12.7 and no snow

Dec 2001 (+6.3) = Jan '02 +6.1 and 8.1" of snow

Dec 1998 (+6.3) = Jan '99 +2.6 and 5.8" of snow

Dec 2011 (+6.2) through yesterday

Snow at...

TTN PHL

0.9" 0.2" Jan '83

3.7" 2.2" Jan '07

0.5" 0.7" Jan '32

3.9" 4.0" Jan '02

4.9" 4.9" Jan '99

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

PHL's current top ten warmest Decembers and the Januaries that followed...

Dece Av T Sn Janua Av T Sn

1923 44.5 1.8 1924 34.7 0.5

1931 44.2 0.0 1932 46.2 0.7

2001 43.7 0.0 2002 39.2 4.0

1889 43.5 0.0 1890 41.8 0.1

1891 42.7 0.0 1892 31.5 11.2

2006 42.7 0.0 2007 38.2 2.2

1990 42.1 6.4 1991 35.1 6.5

1998 42.0 2.0 1999 35.0 4.9

1984 41.9 0.2 1985 27.3 11.9

1994 41.9 0.0 1995 38.2 0.0

Note: Most years with "0.0" snow listed were actually trace amounts.

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Animal

Animal

Posted
Posted

PHL's current top ten warmest Decembers and the total winter snowfall...

Winter

1923-24: 22.5"

1931-32: 8.0"

2001-02: 4.0"

1889-90: 7.4"

1891-92: 19.9"

2006-07: 13.4"

1990-91: 14.6"

1998-99: 12.5"

1984-85: 16.5"

1994-95: 9.8"

At this point it seems that we can possibly score a record minimal snowfall for the year at PHL.

Beating 2001-2002 on the list would be a nice prize in the record books. :bag:

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Thunder Road

Thunder Road

Posted
Posted

Added the total seasonal snow totals for those warm Decembers...and yes there is some good news in there (1983) but otherwise all well below normal (32") years

1982-83 - 50.3" (Blizzard of 1983)

2006-07 - 25.3"

1931-32 - 9.0"

2001-02 - 9.7"

1998-99 - 20.1"

From what little I could find about the 1983 storm, it seemed like it was a total lucky strike, given it was a strong Nino (3.4 anomalies for DJF and JFM were +2.3 and +2.0, respectively...since 1950 only 97-98 was stronger) and strong +NAO for most of the winter. The -AO/+PNA combination the second half of that winter seemed to basically force the storm.

On one hand, I might be inclined to put less weight on the 82-83 seasonal total because of the unlikeliness of such an event. On the other hand, it is encouraging that even with a record warm Dec and other teleconnectors not favoring EC snow we still got a big one.

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

From what little I could find about the 1983 storm, it seemed like it was a total lucky strike, given it was a strong Nino (3.4 anomalies for DJF and JFM were +2.3 and +2.0, respectively...since 1950 only 97-98 was stronger) and strong +NAO for most of the winter. The -AO/+PNA combination the second half of that winter seemed to basically force the storm.

On one hand, I might be inclined to put less weight on the 82-83 seasonal total because of the unlikeliness of such an event. On the other hand, it is encouraging that even with a record warm Dec and other teleconnectors not favoring EC snow we still got a big one.

'82-83 was an El Nino... quite a strong one. That helped things along, I'm sure.

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Rainshadow

Rainshadow

Posted
Posted

PHL's current top ten warmest Decembers and the total winter snowfall...

Winter

1923-24: 22.5".......enso neutral

1931-32: 8.0".........enso neutral

2001-02: 4.0".........enso neutral

1889-90: 7.4".........weak la nina

1891-92: 19.9".......enso neutral

2006-07: 13.4".......moderate el nino

1990-91: 14.6".......enso neutral

1998-99: 12.5".......moderate la nina

1984-85: 16.5".......moderate la nina

1994-95: 9.8".........moderate el nino

The ninas in the bunch not very promising. Paul thank-you for the thread.

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

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Updated...through yesterday 12/28 we have now moved to number 4 for warmest all time at +6.4 with an average temp of 39.9 this month to date

As we draw toward the end of the year. I went back through my database for Chester County (1894 to Present) to see how this December stacked up with the warmest December's on record and then what the next month (January) look like. Overall we need a little more work this week to try to crack the below top 5 warmest. Of note...... not one of the following January's featured above normal snow (8.7") although January 2002 was close

Warmest Ranks (+/- degrees to normal)

Dec 1982 (+8.8) = Jan '83 +4.3 and 6.0" of snow

Dec 2006 (+7.9) = Jan '07 +5.5 and 4.0" of snow

Dec 1931 (+6.5) = Jan '32 +12.7 and no snow

Dec 2001 (+6.3) = Jan '02 +6.1 and 8.1" of snow

Dec 1998 (+6.3) = Jan '99 +2.6 and 5.8" of snow

Dec 2011 (+6.2) through yesterday

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

Looks like the final answer is 43.3, ranked 5th just behind 1889.

PHL's current top ten warmest Decembers and the Januaries that followed...

Dece Av T Sn Janua Av T Sn

1923 44.5 1.8 1924 34.7 0.5

1931 44.2 0.0 1932 46.2 0.7

2001 43.7 0.0 2002 39.2 4.0

1889 43.5 0.0 1890 41.8 0.1

1891 42.7 0.0 1892 31.5 11.2

2006 42.7 0.0 2007 38.2 2.2

1990 42.1 6.4 1991 35.1 6.5

1998 42.0 2.0 1999 35.0 4.9

1984 41.9 0.2 1985 27.3 11.9

1994 41.9 0.0 1995 38.2 0.0

Note: Most years with "0.0" snow listed were actually trace amounts.

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

see watch...

000
NOUS41 KPHI 282117
PNSPHI
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-290917-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
417 PM EST WED DEC 28 2011

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 28
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION
IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN
SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE
ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/PHI

***********************PEAK WIND GUST***********************

LOCATION             MAX WIND     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                   
                       GUST            OF 
                        MPH    MEASUREMENT

DELAWARE

...ANZ431...
  BRANDYWINE SHOAL NOS    52   518 PM 12/27  C-MAN STATION           
  LEWES NOS BUOY          47  1200 PM 12/28  C-MAN STATION           

...KENT COUNTY...
  DOVER AFB               40   521 PM 12/27  AWOS                    

...NEW CASTLE COUNTY...
  WILMINGTON AIRPORT      45   412 PM 12/27  ASOS                    

...SUSSEX COUNTY...
  DEWEY BEACH             51   621 PM 12/27  MESONET                 
  GEORGETOWN AIRPORT      50   421 PM 12/27  ASOS                    
  LEWES                   44   620 PM 12/27  MESONET                 

MARYLAND

...TALBOT COUNTY...
  EASTON AIRPORT          49   625 PM 12/27  AWOS                    

NEW JERSEY

...ANZ338...
  SANDY HOOK NOS BUOY     44   148 PM 12/28  C-MAN STATION           

...ANZ430...
  SHIP JOHN SHOAL NOS     45  1124 AM 12/28  C-MAN STATION           

...ANZ431...
  CAPE MAY NOS BUOY       47   306 PM 12/28  C-MAN STATION           

...ANZ470...
  BUOY 44009              49   650 PM 12/27  BUOY                    

...ATLANTIC COUNTY...
  ATLANTIC CITY AIRPOR    47   715 PM 12/27  ASOS                    
  1 SW WEST ATLANTIC C    44   715 PM 12/27  MESONET                 
  ATLANTIC CITY           41   700 PM 12/27  ATLANTIC CITY MARINA    

...BURLINGTON COUNTY...
  CHATSWORTH              51   800 PM 12/27  MESONET                 
  MCGUIRE AFB             40   808 PM 12/27  AWOS                    
  MOUNT HOLLY AIRPORT     40   744 PM 12/27  ASOS                    

...CAMDEN COUNTY...
  PENNSAUKEN              47   719 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...CAPE MAY COUNTY...
  OCEAN CITY              46   705 PM 12/27  MESONET                 
  WOODBINE                46   615 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
  CAPE MAY                46   440 PM 12/27  MESONET                 
  WILDWOOD AIRPORT        43   435 PM 12/27  AWOS                    

...CUMBERLAND COUNTY...
  BIVALVE                 55   700 PM 12/27  TIME ESTIMATED.         

...MERCER COUNTY...
  TRENTON AIRPORT         43   742 PM 12/27  ASOS                    

...MONMOUTH COUNTY...
  KEANSBURG               48   745 PM 12/27  MESONET                 
  MONMOUTH BEACH          45   710 PM 12/27  MESONET                 

...OCEAN COUNTY...
  BRICK TWP               48   320 PM 12/28  MESONET                 
  BARNEGAT                47   735 PM 12/27  MESONET                 
  LAKEHURST NAS           47   708 PM 12/27  AWOS                    
  SHIP BOTTOM             47   745 PM 12/27  MESONET                 
  SEASIDE HEIGHTS         47   615 PM 12/27  MESONET                 
  POINT PLEASANT          44   715 PM 12/27  MESONET                 
  TUCKERTON               44   215 PM 12/28  MESONET                 

PENNSYLVANIA

...BERKS COUNTY...
  READING AIRPORT         47   952 AM 12/28  ASOS                    

...BUCKS COUNTY...
  DOYLESTOWN AIRPORT      41  1115 AM 12/28  ASOS                    

...CHESTER COUNTY...
  COATESVILLE AIRPORT     43  1035 AM 12/28  AWOS                    

...LEHIGH COUNTY...
  ALLENTOWN AIRPORT       44  1213 PM 12/28  ASOS                    

...PHILADELPHIA COUNTY...
  PHILADELPHIA INTL AI    51   705 PM 12/27  ASOS                    
  NORTHEAST PHILADELPH    44  1229 PM 12/28  ASOS                    

$$

MEOLA

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