earthlight Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 If this run is correct you will need to be in Wisconsin to see the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 sub 992 just west of phl at hr 174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Driving rains in the NYC/PHL areas at 174 hrs...0.75-1.00" liquid in 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 994mb over Michigan at hr 168, cold front near Pittsburgh draped southwest from there. hr 168 low over central va rain up and down the coast and all northeast Wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Wait He's talking about the secondary...the primary surface low is in Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 If this run is correct you will need to be in Wisconsin to see the CCB. So we went from model continuity to a complete mess with the GGEM and GFS now being the most similar in terms of surface depiction. Not exactly what I expected but I'd rather have the models all over the place at this point if they're not showing a hit for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 168 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 lol 850 0 line is in the central gulf of mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 front comes through at hr 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 northern Florida is colder than sne at hr 186 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Looks like what occurred on December 1st, but further east with the 2nd low, but with colder air behind the storm. Either way, an awful and rather crazy run, it seems very different from the 12z run. I'm not so sure about the whole Michigan primary with Virgina secondary, I like what the Ggem and gfs showed, it made more sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 this storm is going to pump one heck of a -nao, this is for sure...new storm coming down the pipeline at hr 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 What i find pretty amazing is how this went from what it was to what it is ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 What i find pretty amazing is how this went from what it was to what it is ... It is early December, we shouldn't be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 this proves my point from before that models 7-10 days out are unreliable as can be. Let this one work itself out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 the area get 1-1.5 inches of rain from this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 It is early December, we shouldn't be surprised. Actually what surprises me is how models such as the ECM have been so inconsistent with the pattern over the days...yet alone the storm tracks. This is something I would expect more out of the GFS & not the ECM...but it seems like every other 6-12 hrs its a completely different solution.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 Hey sorry this isn't nyc related, but you're the only one giving Euro details. Is there any precip in the cold air, especially when the low starts to transfer to eastern PA? Thanks. this can be deleted if neccesary. nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Verbatim, the 0z euro would imply more of a strong cold front moving through than a big lake cutter with another low forming on top of the cold front giving us some heavy rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Here was 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 epic flooding for maine on this run, the front has stalled over them and a new wave has developed on it in the atlantic, 4-6 inches of rain so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Actually what surprises me is how models such as the ECM have been so inconsistent with the pattern over the days...yet alone the storm tracks. This is something I would expect more out of the GFS & not the ECM...but it seems like every other 6-12 hrs its a completely different solution.... Let us look at the model scales of justice: Trending toward a stronger solution [check] Early December [check] Negatively tilted trough west of the Apps [check] Early December [check] Lack of a Banana high [check] Early December [check] Now let us answer this question: How many major east coast snowstorms can you remember prior to December 15, which had a very strong central pressure and lack of a banana high? I can't remember many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 hr 222 lol sub 984 backing in from the atlantic towards sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 the cold front has stalled over nyc at hr 228 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Retrograding snows at hour 228, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 if someone can post the hr 216 map, the -nao is nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 980 over the b/m at 234 and snowing in NYC and NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 234 snowing nyc to phl from the retrograding low this is epic lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 maine is closing in on 7-8 inches of rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Let us look at the model scales of justice: Trending toward a stronger solution [check] Early December [check] Negatively tilted trough west of the Apps [check] Early December [check] Lack of a Banana high [check] Early December [check] Now let us answer this question: How many major east coast snowstorms can you remember prior to December 15, which had a very strong central pressure and lack of a banana high? I can't remember many. None of the above however, negates the fact that we have seen different runs from the ECM over its past 4 runs & each one has been basically different... and then the ensemble means are completely different as well...There has been no consistency! I am not even talking about precipitation types at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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