NYCSuburbs Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Anyone has any thoughts as to whether the GFS or the ECMWF/GGEM could be better with handling the storm? Based on their performances this year, I'd prefer to lean more towards the ECMWF than the GFS, but I'm a little confused with what would lead the storm to move inland like the ECM/GGEM have it. Would it be that the storm intensifies earlier on the GGEM/ECM than the GFS which keeps it more progressive and has it intensifying much later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 And 24+ is a BECS.... hardly. can't be biblical if i've already experienced 3 storms with this total in my 24 year lifetime. id say BECS is 30+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 hardly. can't be biblical if i've already experienced 3 storms with this total in my 24 year lifetime. id say BECS is 30+. You can't view it in a imby fashion though. You have to look at the bigger pictures along w/ the other dynamics that come along w/ the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I'll add this in fairness; Upton measured 37.2" of snow in the last two December's combined, an 18.6" per year average; the 63 year mean for December is 6.88"; so the law of averages would argue for a paltry amount of snow this December... http://www.bnl.gov/w...hlySnowfall.htm Yeah well what the law of averages doesnt know is life isnt a math book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 wow - this thread got mass views/posts lol. lets try to beat it with the 00z's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 wow - this thread got mass views/posts lol. lets try to beat it with the 00z's If the GFS stays with the coastal through 18z that shouldnt be hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Not so sure about that. It has been my experience that as sure as the sun rises in the east, things even out over the passage of time... What things are we talking about here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Not so sure about that. It has been my experience that as sure as the sun rises in the east, things even out over the passage of time... Indeed given enough time any outcome including a crappy December is a possibility but for all we know we can have another 4 or 5 great Decembers before we have a string of lousy ones to even things out. I don't even want to think of when that actually happens. It's depressing just knowing that it will occur at some point or another! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 ...not the injustices of the world.. UHI is one of the injustices of the world-- we should rip out all the concrete of the infestation that is NYC and replace it with a more natural environment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 ...not the injustices of the world.. Yes good point In terms of climate everything works out in the end...I guess you could say the atmosphere is a math book, albeit a chaotic one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 hardly. can't be biblical if i've already experienced 3 storms with this total in my 24 year lifetime. id say BECS is 30+. 36"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Indeed given enough time any outcome including a crappy December is a possibility but for all we know we can have another 4 or 5 great Decembers before we have a string of lousy ones to even things out. I don't even want to think of when that actually happens. It's depressing just knowing that it will occur at some point or another! You know how awful it would be to have another stretch like 87-92 or 96-00 on this board? I cant imagine. You can even extend it to include the earlier 80s, like 86-87 when Monmouth County got like 60 inches of snow and we got less than half that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 36"+ 32"+ because then you'd have a perfect progression..... 4, 8, 16, 32 Not that we use the metric system, but it rounds out evenly in mm.... 100, 200, 400, 800 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Yes good point In terms of climate everything works out in the end...I guess you could say the atmosphere is a math book, albeit a chaotic one Its a kind of math too complex for us to have figured out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 SECS has to be 6" or more in my book..anything less than that is nice but not significant by definition MECS 14-16"+ depending on the type of system HECS 24" or more BECS upwards of 32 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 SECS 4"- 8" MECS 8" - 16" HECS 16" - 24" BECS 24"+ BECS are fairly rare...Boston had no storms exceeding 24" from the start of record keeping until February 6, 1978. ..I don't include the late February 1969 event because the snow fell over more than 48 hours... Maybe the change in measurement techniques has helped lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 SECS has to be 6" or more in my book..anything less than that is nice but not significant by definition MECS 14-16"+ depending on the type of system HECS 24" or more BECS upwards of 32 inches So, the only I-95 station to ever see a BECS is IAD with their 32.4" measurement after 2/5-6 last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 hardly. can't be biblical if i've already experienced 3 storms with this total in my 24 year lifetime. id say BECS is 30+. 30 inches is not biblical. I would consider any storm over 1-2 feet of snow Biblical that has the potential to achieve the following conditions: 1. Achieve blizzard conditions- (wind speed and dropping temps) and maintain those conditions for 8 hours or more 2 . Stay as an all-snow event for a 300--500 mile radius. Rain for longer than 4 hours in a 24 hour period along the immediate coast will be ruled as disqualification as a BECS 3. Achieve drifts of 3-8 ft in height which virtually gridlocks the transportation system - airlines, interstates etc for longer than 24 hours 4. Governors or local municipalities declaring a state of emergency for 24 hours or longer 5. The federal govt declaring a disaster area for the entire area for snow removal and or flooding threat 6. Thundersnow gets a plus for consideration as a BECS if not all the blizzard conditions are met 7. Low pressure has to below 925 mb or lower 8. Power outages are a significant plus to be considered a BECS 9. The storm is predicted three three days out with complete model consensus of the GFS, NAM and Euro on the track and Qpf 10. This weatherboard goes in lockdown mode 24 hours before the storm event because of the storm event. to prevent overloading of the servers. 11. All grocery stores and gas stations are packed to the gills with people and fighting breaks out over milk and bread Lastly back to back 12 to 18 inch snow events would be considered Biblical if they occur under a 3 day time period. These should be the criteria for BECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 SECS has to be 6" or more in my book..anything less than that is nice but not significant by definition MECS 14-16"+ depending on the type of system HECS 24" or more BECS upwards of 32 inches SECS 6"+ averaged MECS 10"+ averaged HECS 18"+ averaged BECS 24"+ averaged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 SECS 4"- 8" MECS 8" - 16" HECS 16" - 24" BECS 24"+ BECS are fairly rare...Boston had no storms exceeding 24" from the start of record keeping until February 6, 1978. ..I don't include the late February 1969 event because the snow fell over more than 48 hours... It definitely differs by location...but 4 inches is not a significant snowstorm to me, won't even trigger a warning here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 It definitely differs by location...but 4 inches is not a significant snowstorm to me, won't even trigger a warning here. If 4 inches falls during the rush hour in NYC it will KILL traffic lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 It definitely differs by location...but 4 inches is not a significant snowstorm to me, won't even trigger a warning here. Im assuming that a historic snowstorm is one that occurs on average once every 10 years and a historic snowfall season occurs once every 10 years on average also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Almost all of us here have seen a 2 foot snowstorm, that is why it can't be considered biblical. Maybe it s semantics but just think about that word... BIBLICAL. To me, it's only a biblical event if most haven't experienced it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 It definitely differs by location...but 4 inches is not a significant snowstorm to me, won't even trigger a warning here. 4" depends on quite a few things. 4" that was not forecast CAN cause a lot of problems! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I consider a 4 inch snowstorm "plowable"..which is the threshold I utilize for being significant...though I don't think a 4" storm warrants a WSW...and the NWS agrees. 2" is plowable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I consider a 4 inch snowstorm "plowable"..which is the threshold I utilize for being significant...though I don't think a 4" storm warrants a WSW...and the NWS agrees. Ive seen WSW issued for 4-8" amounts though. Even 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Almost all of us here have seen a 2 foot snowstorm, that is why it can't be considered biblical. Maybe it s semantics but just think about that word... BIBLICAL. To me, it's only a biblical event if most haven't experienced it. It would be biblical if it was 2 feet plus averaged over a large area, like jan 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Ive seen WSW issued for 4-8" amounts though. Even 4-6" 4-8, yes, 6" averaged. 4-6, no more. There would have to be ice on top of it or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 4" depends on quite a few things. 4" that was not forecast CAN cause a lot of problems! 4 inches of snow that falls one inch per hour between 5 am and 9 am on a rush hour morning-- even when its forecasted well can cause a ton of problems lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 4-8, yes, 6" averaged. 4-6, no more. There would have to be ice on top of it or something like that. Yeah I think it was actually.... something like 4-6" of snow with some glaze on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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