NaoPos Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 1st of, would like to ask everyone to wish/pray/ hope for a fellow member. JOMO from the central section was pretty much in the line of fire of the Joplin,MO tornado. This was his last post: "Pitch black out, couplet nearly on me... Joplin, MO" SO far, no word on him. Hoping that it's due to electricity/ cell coverage issues. Back to the topic. Day 1 SPC outlook: tornado 2% Hail and wind 15% ...AR/MO NEWD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS... MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...WITHIN A BROAD/MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS THAT WILL DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY EARLY SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SHOULD RE-FIRE E OF THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...NEW DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST INVOF THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WHILE A THIRD AREA OF MORE CONCENTRATED STORMS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION AND INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A BELT OF FASTER SWLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE ACROSS THIS REGION...STRONGER/SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE -- ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING THREATS FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STORMS WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING AFTER DARK...BUT NOT BEFORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION AFFECTS A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID MS/TN/OH VALLEYS AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION. Pretty general, but it is a large area. ...NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY... WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AND WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL LEE SURFACE TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER IMPULSE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE A BIT MORE UNCLEAR CONCERNING THE STRENGTH OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS...AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS COULD IMPACT MUCH OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR...FROM WASHINGTON D.C./BALTIMORE TO NEW YORK CITY...BEFORE CONVECTION DIMINISHING/SPREADS OFFSHORE WITH UPPER FORCING BY TUESDAY EVENING. ..KERR.. 05/23/2011 SHould be interesting the next 2 days so go ahead and discuss. (side note, out west, we could be talking another historic outbreak) Day 2 outlook: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Gotta get the clouds to clear up in the next hour or two to get today's stuff in Ohio to intensify as it comes in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 dont all jump into the discussion at once lol anyhow, new spc outlook: ...MID ATLANTIC... OH/KY MCS AND ASSOCIATED MCV SHOULD CONTINUE ENEWD LATER THIS MORNING...AND CRESTING PARTS THE APPALACHIANS BY EARLY AFTN. DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF REMAINING STORMS...AND/OR DEVELOPMENT OF NEW ACTIVITY JUST AHEAD OF SYSTEM OVER PARTS OF WV/VA/NC/MD/PA AND NY. STRENGTH OF LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND WITH THE STORMS DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO INVOF SLOWLY-MOVING WARM FRONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 Gotta get the clouds to clear up in the next hour or two to get today's stuff in Ohio to intensify as it comes in... Yeah. Still early. I'd say if we want anything, it'll have to break by noon - 1pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Agreed that if we don't get the sun to come out by 1 PM or so, the chances of severe weather this evening will diminish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0887 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0933 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL PA...ERN WV...NRN VA...WRN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 231433Z - 231600Z A WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTENSIFIES. A WW WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE HOUR. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR THE PA-OH STATE-LINE SWD INTO CNTRL WV IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF THE LINE...MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS INSTABILITY IS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL PA SWD INTO NRN VA WHERE SBCAPE VALUES NOW RANGE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED 700 MB JET ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY INCREASE HELPING TO ORGANIZE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY LATE THIS MORNING. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE STORMS MOVE ACROSS WRN MD AND CNTRL PA. ..BROYLES.. 05/23/2011 and then the watch box to our west: URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 338 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MARYLAND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA NORTHERN VIRGINIA EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1050 AM UNTIL 600 PM EDT. HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF STATE COLLEGE PENNSYLVANIA TO 25 MILES EAST OF CHARLOTTESVILLE VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 337... DISCUSSION...TSTMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF MCV FROM WRN PA TO ERN VA SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS E OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE COMBINATION OF MLCAPE INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AND STRONG WLY MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /REF. 12Z ILN SOUNDING/ WILL PROMOTE UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS INTO AN MCS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 South of I-76 might be the sweet spot today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 I wouldn't count on much today thanks to the Marine Layer. 64.3 at noon imby, which is not thunderstorm ingredients tomorrow looks decent though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Just cleared here - 73F. Decent CAPE possible this PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 ^ What are the thunderstorm ingredients for cooking? I'll buy some at the store, maybe flour, sugar, spice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 SE PA should start clearing out in the next hour or so... fog has burned off, getting warmer here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 still foggy...Central PA might do well but NAM keeps most of the t-storms to the north/west of Philadelphia this PM...I tend to agree with it at this point. Haven't had one peep of sun...that's not good if you want severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 new Day2 dropped us from the 30% and the SPC WRF suffered a "disk failure" which means it did not run at 12z today and might not run tomorrow as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Sun is out here in Wayne. Temp is up to 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 meanwhile, the latest (16z) HRRR has rain making it into Philly a little before 7pm, but nothing organized at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 new Day2 dropped us from the 30% and the SPC WRF suffered a "disk failure" which means it did not run at 12z today and might not run tomorrow as well Back to good ole' nowcasting! I think it has to do with the shortwave being less vigourous than what was being depicted last night . ( in regards to the 30% risk going to 15%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 0133 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PA/VA/NC...WRN/CNTRL MD...ERN WV PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 338... VALID 231833Z - 232000Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 338 CONTINUES. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS FROM PA TO NC IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW ISSUANCE TO THE S OF WW 338 WILL BE LIKELY BY 20Z. ALTHOUGH AN INITIAL BAND OF TSTMS HAD WEAKENED ACROSS CNTRL PA...A RECENT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED ACROSS WRN PA INTO ERN WV IN A LOBE OF FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN REMNANT MCV CENTERED OVER NWRN PA. RECENT HRRR RUNS REMAIN ADAMANT IN THIS ACTIVITY INCREASING IN INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS IT DEVELOPS EWD INTO WW 338. CONTINUED HEATING DOWNSTREAM INTO AND THROUGH THE 80S WILL RESULT IN A LARGELY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT BASED ON A MODIFIED 16Z IAD RAOB. WITH 50 KT W/SWLYS AT 4 KM AGL SAMPLED IN FCX/LWX VWP DATA...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND. WITH GREATER BUOYANCY AND INCREASINGLY AGITATED CU NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INTO NWRN NC AHEAD OF A SMALL MCV IN SWRN VA...A DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST TO THE S OF WW 338. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MODEST...THE MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH A POTENTIALLY MORE DISCRETE MODE COULD FAVOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IN PORTIONS OF SRN VA/NRN NC. ..GRAMS.. 05/23/2011 Sun is out here in delaware county. Still a bit cloudy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Back to good ole' nowcasting! I think it has to do with the shortwave being less vigourous than what was being depicted last night . ( in regards to the 30% risk going to 15%) ugh, you mean I might actually have to look at a sounding or a Skew-T? Man this stuff is hard And I really haven't been looking into tomorrow's set-up much until I saw SPC's risk area, so I don't know for sure but a weaker s/w could be the reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 Just some quick meso looks: Just have to keep an eye on things. Not a bad set up, just waiting on the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 I am so tired of this marine layer-feel like I am in Seattle. The real problems still exists- deep moisture-no drying and available soil moisture way above normal. This leads to possible disastrous conditions for us in our region more flooding especially if an early tropical storms hits our area and or severe thunderstorms with tornadoes. Imagine if the sun would come out in the afternoon with early afternoon sw wind 15-25 mph- the storms that would develop especially in the normal June heat would be remembered. We have been awful lucky the temps have not hit the magic temp of 85 degrees or warmer for good severe storm development. The storms usually develop in the late morning hours between Altoona and Harrisburg to really do some damage in our area. We will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Just have to keep an eye on things. Not a bad set up, just waiting on the trigger. Much better setup south/west than north/east of Philly at this point. Lancaster/Chester/NE MD/New Castle will probably have a shot... Too much debris clouds and marine influence in the lower levels still around Philly for me to get hopeful but rumbles aren't out of the question later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 Much better setup south/west than north/east of Philly at this point. Lancaster/Chester/NE MD/New Castle will probably have a shot... Too much debris clouds and marine influence in the lower levels still around Philly for me to get hopeful but rumbles aren't out of the question later. better looking than last week for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Up to 73 here now, with mostly sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 i think the storms in WV, NVA, WMD are gonna pop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 i think the storms in WV, NVA, WMD are gonna pop http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_lite.php They already have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 http://radar.weather...theast_lite.php They already have. well don't i look silly::mapstorm: lol I didn't look at them before i posted that. Too hung up in the out west radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 TOR warn out near Lewistown in Central PA...cell will pass way to our north but is heading towards Selinsgrove and eventually the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Check out that supercell near State College Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a * Tornado Warning for... northeastern Huntingdon County in central Pennsylvania... central Juniata County in central Pennsylvania... Mifflin County in central Pennsylvania... * until 445 PM EDT * at 408 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. The storm containing the possible tornado was near Allensville... moving east at 35 mph. * The tornado will be near... Belleville around 420 PM EDT... Strodes Mills around 425 PM EDT... Yeagertown and Burnham around 435 PM EDT... Milroy and Walnut around 440 PM EDT... Alfarata and Reeds Gap State Park around 445 PM EDT... When a Tornado Warning is issued based on Doppler radar... it means that strong rotation has been detected in the storm. A tornado may already be on the ground... or is expected to develop shortly. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Heavy rainfall may obscure this tornado. If you wait to see or hear it coming... it may be too late to get to a safe place. Take cover inside now. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. Move to an interior room on the lowest level of a sturdy building. Put as many walls between you and the outside as you can. Avoid windows. Protect yourself from flying debris. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM EDT Monday evening for south central Pennsylvania. Lat... Lon 4063 7797 4073 7772 4072 7771 4075 7765 4075 7762 4083 7741 4052 7729 4044 7794 time... Mot... loc 2013z 248deg 30kt 4058 7781 Forecaster: kf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.