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5/23 to 5/24 severe Weather. day 1 and 2 slight risk.


NaoPos

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1st of, would like to ask everyone to wish/pray/ hope for a fellow member. JOMO from the central section was pretty much in the line of fire of the Joplin,MO tornado. This was his last post:

"Pitch black out, couplet nearly on me... Joplin, MO"

SO far, no word on him. Hoping that it's due to electricity/ cell coverage issues.

Back to the topic. Day 1 SPC outlook:

day1otlk_1200.gif

tornado 2%

Hail and wind 15%

...AR/MO NEWD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS...

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...WITHIN A

BROAD/MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS THAT WILL DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE

AFTERNOON. AN INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY

EARLY SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SHOULD RE-FIRE E OF

THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...NEW DEVELOPMENT

IS FORECAST INVOF THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WHILE A

THIRD AREA OF MORE CONCENTRATED STORMS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE OZARKS

REGION AND INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH A BELT OF FASTER SWLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE

TROPOSPHERE ACROSS THIS REGION...STRONGER/SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY

ORGANIZE -- ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING THREATS FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING

WINDS...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STORMS WILL BEGIN

DIMINISHING AFTER DARK...BUT NOT BEFORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION

AFFECTS A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID MS/TN/OH VALLEYS AND INTO THE

LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

Pretty general, but it is a large area.

day2probotlk_0600_any.gif

...NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...

WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE

SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AND WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL LEE

SURFACE TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER IMPULSE TUESDAY

AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE A BIT MORE UNCLEAR CONCERNING THE STRENGTH OF

THE VERTICAL SHEAR...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL

FOR ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS...AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY NOT BE

OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS COULD IMPACT MUCH OF THE URBAN

CORRIDOR...FROM WASHINGTON D.C./BALTIMORE TO NEW YORK CITY...BEFORE

CONVECTION DIMINISHING/SPREADS OFFSHORE WITH UPPER FORCING BY

TUESDAY EVENING.

..KERR.. 05/23/2011

SHould be interesting the next 2 days so go ahead and discuss.

(side note, out west, we could be talking another historic outbreak):thumbsdown:

Day 2 outlook:

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dont all jump into the discussion at once :whistle: lol

anyhow, new spc outlook:

day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif

day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif

day1probotlk_1300_hail.gif

...MID ATLANTIC...

OH/KY MCS AND ASSOCIATED MCV SHOULD CONTINUE ENEWD LATER THIS

MORNING...AND CRESTING PARTS THE APPALACHIANS BY EARLY AFTN.

DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT

INTENSIFICATION OF REMAINING STORMS...AND/OR DEVELOPMENT OF NEW

ACTIVITY JUST AHEAD OF SYSTEM OVER PARTS OF WV/VA/NC/MD/PA AND NY.

STRENGTH OF LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY

DMGG WIND WITH THE STORMS DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES...AND

POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO INVOF SLOWLY-MOVING WARM FRONT.

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Gotta get the clouds to clear up in the next hour or two to get today's stuff in Ohio to intensify as it comes in...

Yeah. Still early. I'd say if we want anything, it'll have to break by noon - 1pm

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0887

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0933 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL PA...ERN WV...NRN VA...WRN MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231433Z - 231600Z

A WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS

INTENSIFIES. A WW WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION

OVER THE HOUR.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR THE PA-OH STATE-LINE SWD INTO

CNTRL WV IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF THE LINE...MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS

INSTABILITY IS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL PA SWD INTO NRN VA WHERE

SBCAPE VALUES NOW RANGE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. IN

ADDITION...MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED 700 MB JET ACROSS THE

CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM

THE SOUTHWEST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY INCREASE HELPING TO

ORGANIZE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY LATE

THIS MORNING. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY

AFTERNOON AS THE STORMS MOVE ACROSS WRN MD AND CNTRL PA.

..BROYLES.. 05/23/2011

and then the watch box to our west:

ww0338_radar_big.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 338

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1050 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

MARYLAND

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA

NORTHERN VIRGINIA

EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE

COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1050 AM UNTIL 600

PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES EAST

NORTHEAST OF STATE COLLEGE PENNSYLVANIA TO 25 MILES EAST OF

CHARLOTTESVILLE VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH

SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 337...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF MCV FROM WRN PA TO

ERN VA SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS

AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS E OF THE

BLUE RIDGE. THE COMBINATION OF MLCAPE INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG

AND STRONG WLY MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /REF. 12Z ILN SOUNDING/ WILL

PROMOTE UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS INTO AN MCS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL

AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 27035.

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still foggy...Central PA might do well but NAM keeps most of the t-storms to the north/west of Philadelphia this PM...I tend to agree with it at this point. Haven't had one peep of sun...that's not good if you want severe weather.

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new Day2 dropped us from the 30%

and the SPC WRF suffered a "disk failure" which means it did not run at 12z today and might not run tomorrow as well

Back to good ole' nowcasting!

I think it has to do with the shortwave being less vigourous than what was being depicted last night . ( in regards to the 30% risk going to 15%)

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mcd0895.gif

0133 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PA/VA/NC...WRN/CNTRL MD...ERN WV PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 338...

VALID 231833Z - 232000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 338

CONTINUES.

SCATTERED TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS FROM PA

TO NC IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW ISSUANCE TO THE S OF WW 338 WILL

BE LIKELY BY 20Z.

ALTHOUGH AN INITIAL BAND OF TSTMS HAD WEAKENED ACROSS CNTRL PA...A

RECENT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED ACROSS WRN PA INTO

ERN WV IN A LOBE OF FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN REMNANT MCV

CENTERED OVER NWRN PA. RECENT HRRR RUNS REMAIN ADAMANT IN THIS

ACTIVITY INCREASING IN INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS IT DEVELOPS

EWD INTO WW 338. CONTINUED HEATING DOWNSTREAM INTO AND THROUGH THE

80S WILL RESULT IN A LARGELY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT BASED ON A

MODIFIED 16Z IAD RAOB. WITH 50 KT W/SWLYS AT 4 KM AGL SAMPLED IN

FCX/LWX VWP DATA...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS

WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

WITH GREATER BUOYANCY AND INCREASINGLY AGITATED CU NOTED IN VISIBLE

SATELLITE IMAGERY INTO NWRN NC AHEAD OF A SMALL MCV IN SWRN VA...A

DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST TO THE S OF WW 338.

ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MODEST...THE MODERATE TO

STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH A POTENTIALLY MORE DISCRETE

MODE COULD FAVOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IN PORTIONS OF SRN

VA/NRN NC.

..GRAMS.. 05/23/2011

Sun is out here in delaware county. Still a bit cloudy though.

1kmv.gif?1306177027000

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Back to good ole' nowcasting!

I think it has to do with the shortwave being less vigourous than what was being depicted last night . ( in regards to the 30% risk going to 15%)

ugh, you mean I might actually have to look at a sounding or a Skew-T? Man this stuff is hard

And I really haven't been looking into tomorrow's set-up much until I saw SPC's risk area, so I don't know for sure but a weaker s/w could be the reason

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I am so tired of this marine layer-feel like I am in Seattle. The real problems still exists- deep moisture-no drying and available soil moisture way above normal. This leads to possible disastrous conditions for us in our region more flooding especially if an early tropical storms hits our area and or severe thunderstorms with tornadoes. Imagine if the sun would come out in the afternoon with early afternoon sw wind 15-25 mph- the storms that would develop especially in the normal June heat would be remembered. We have been awful lucky the temps have not hit the magic temp of 85 degrees or warmer for good severe storm development. The storms usually develop in the late morning hours between Altoona and Harrisburg to really do some damage in our area. We will see

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Just have to keep an eye on things. Not a bad set up, just waiting on the trigger.

Much better setup south/west than north/east of Philly at this point. Lancaster/Chester/NE MD/New Castle will probably have a shot...

Too much debris clouds and marine influence in the lower levels still around Philly for me to get hopeful but rumbles aren't out of the question later.

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Much better setup south/west than north/east of Philly at this point. Lancaster/Chester/NE MD/New Castle will probably have a shot...

Too much debris clouds and marine influence in the lower levels still around Philly for me to get hopeful but rumbles aren't out of the question later.

RUC_255_2011052318_F00_40.0000N_75.5000W.png

better looking than last week for sure.

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The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...

northeastern Huntingdon County in central Pennsylvania...

central Juniata County in central Pennsylvania...

Mifflin County in central Pennsylvania...

* until 445 PM EDT

* at 408 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a

severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. The storm

containing the possible tornado was near Allensville... moving east

at 35 mph.

* The tornado will be near...

Belleville around 420 PM EDT...

Strodes Mills around 425 PM EDT...

Yeagertown and Burnham around 435 PM EDT...

Milroy and Walnut around 440 PM EDT...

Alfarata and Reeds Gap State Park around 445 PM EDT...

When a Tornado Warning is issued based on Doppler radar... it means

that strong rotation has been detected in the storm. A tornado may

already be on the ground... or is expected to develop shortly.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Heavy rainfall may obscure this tornado. If you wait to see or hear

it coming... it may be too late to get to a safe place.

Take cover inside now. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. Move

to an interior room on the lowest level of a sturdy building. Put as

many walls between you and the outside as you can. Avoid windows.

Protect yourself from flying debris.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM EDT Monday

evening for south central Pennsylvania.

Lat... Lon 4063 7797 4073 7772 4072 7771 4075 7765

4075 7762 4083 7741 4052 7729 4044 7794

time... Mot... loc 2013z 248deg 30kt 4058 7781

Forecaster: kf

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