free_man Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Nice SW/W New England storm threat on the gfs for early next week, timing differences aside. Some support from 0z Euro Maybe a gloomier days across the east (to start), early showers/storms, while later W NE gets very warm and a late-breaking line of storms Tuesday. Most of the 00z gfs ensemble have measurable Tuesday PM, anway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Perhaps a much better shot further to our west (PA/NY) and northwest (Canada). Seems like we lose a great deal of jet dynamics out this way...perhaps we get some dieing convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 19, 2011 Author Share Posted May 19, 2011 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190828 SPC AC 190828 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2011 VALID 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SIGNIFICANT DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES AND ULTIMATELY THEIR INFLUENCE REGARDING ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION. WITH UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS THE SERN U.S. AND THE PROPENSITY FOR MODEST SWLY FLOW FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD EASILY EVOLVE BENEATH THIS BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION. SHORT OF OUTLOOKING THE ENTIRE ZONE FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY DISCRIMINATION POSSIBLE...WILL HOLD OFF FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN TO MORE READILY CLARIFY SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. Looks okay for now, something to watch. Maybe Pete and Mike will score a few stronger storms. Better than rationalizing drizzle fog and 49 as a joyous Spring festive time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 22, 2011 Author Share Posted May 22, 2011 Nice SW/W New England storm threat on the gfs for early next week, timing differences aside. Some support from 0z Euro Maybe a gloomier days across the east (to start), early showers/storms, while later W NE gets very warm and a late-breaking line of storms Tuesday. Most of the 00z gfs ensemble have measurable Tuesday PM, anway. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT A COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL WILL COMBINED WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND PROBABLY TRIGGER HIT AND MISS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT...INSTABILITY AND WIND PROFILES MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BY LATER SHIFTS. not bad for a five day outlook, at least something to watch tomorrow and Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.