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Monday April 11 severe weather thread(16z update MOD)


janetjanet998

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looks like a wide area will be under a slight risk

please remember the new rules

http://www.americanw...eather-threads/

new RUC has a nice new low dveloping over the mid MS valley

may need a bump up to moderate later for wind

if this low does indeed develop tornado threat will also iNcrease over TN, MS and AL

TN VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES

THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED SOUTHERN/BASAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED

TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH TO THE TN VALLEY/GULF

COAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A THE

EAST-SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BROKEN BANDS OF RELATIVELY

WELL-ORGANIZED QUASI-LINEAR STORMS WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING IN A

SPATIALLY EXTENSIVE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED CORRIDOR FROM NEAR

THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RIVERS TO THE MID-SOUTH/ARKLATEX

REGIONS. SOME OF THESE COULD BE STRONG/SEVERE AT LEAST IN AN

ISOLATED SENSE...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.

A SOMEWHAT NARROW /GULF COAST VICINITY ASIDE/ MOIST INFLUX WILL

OCCUR TODAY TOWARD THE TN VALLEY...AHEAD OF A WHAT SHOULD BE A

REJUVENATION OF DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ALONG THE COLD

FRONT...OR PERHAPS MORE LIKELY FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF

EARLY DAY OUTFLOW-INDUCED EFFECTIVE BOUNDARIES. IT WOULD SEEM THE

RELATIVELY STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION /1000-2000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ AND

RESULTANT CONVECTIVE UPSWING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD OCCUR FROM

EASTERN LA INTO MS/AL AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AND

WESTERN GA.

AMID STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW /70-100 KT AROUND 500 MB - ONLY

SLIGHTLY LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT/...DEEP LAYER SHEAR LARGELY

ORIENTED TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT A DOMINANT

QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH EMBEDDED BOWS...THOUGH SOME

SEMI-DISCRETE/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. DAMAGING

WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE DOMINANT CONCERN. WHILE LITTLE

DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM...STRONG

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL NONETHELESS SUPPORT 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-200

M2/S2 WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR SOME TORNADOES. THE SEVERE HAIL

POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY MARGINAL/ISOLATED...WITH

HAIL STONES GENERALLY LIMITED TO QUARTER SIZE OR LESS. THE SEVERE

THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN

APPALACHIANS AND GA/NORTH FL THROUGH THE EVENING AND LIKELY BECOME

MORE ISOLATED/MARGINAL BY THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..GUYER/HURLBUT.. 04/11/2011

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Memphis on board..waiting on new day 1

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

642 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011

DISCUSSION

/ISSUED 513 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011/

..THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL

INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE MID SOUTH

TODAY...

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH

APPEARS TO BE INCREASING FOR TODAY...WITH THE INCREASING

POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED/POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS

ACROSS AREAS BOUNDED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND EAST OF

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS AREA INCLUDES MUCH OF SOUTHWEST

TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED

FURTHER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASED

DESTABLIZATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE

AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH WITHIN BROAD WARM

SECTOR REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE

60S NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WITH

EVEN UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS JUST SOUTH. AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS IN

EARNEST THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE

LINE NOW STRETCHED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION...EXPECTING MUCAPES

TO RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED GREATEST

CONCERN AREA.

AS A SIGNIFICANT INITIALLY POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE OVER WEST

TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING MOVES RAPIDLY EAST AND TAKES ON AN

INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL TILT AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID SOUTH...EXPECT

MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 80 TO 100 METERS TO

OVERSPREAD WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IN ADVANCE

OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...A POWERFUL 100KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK

NOW ORIENTED SW TO NE FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MIDDLE

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ENHANCE THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE LIFT AND

DEEP LAYER SHEAR. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 70 KTS WILL

OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES

NEUTRALLY TILTED AND THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS OR

GREATER. THIS GIVES RISE TO THE POTENTIAL ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND

AREA...BUT AFTER CLOSE DISCUSSION WITH SPC...THERE ARE STILL SOME

LIMITING FACTORS SUCH AS RESIDUAL MID LEVEL CAPPING ASSOCIATED

WITH MID LEVEL INVERSION AND LESS THAN IDEAL LOW LEVEL FRONTAL

CONVERGENCE THAT COULD LIMIT A HIGH END WIND THREAT AND UPGRADE TO

A MODERATE RISK AREA. THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY

MONITORED BY THE DAY SHIFT IN CASE THE WIND POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE

SIGNIFICANT THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. PLAN TO CONTINUE MENTION OF

DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA IN

HWO.

LINE OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE

FORECAST AREAS LATER THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE QLCS WILL THEN

SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST

MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH

DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...STILL CANNOT

COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH

EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITH QLCS/SQUALL

LINE. IN

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SPC mentions possible upgrade

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0728 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO

NY/PA AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH

ROTATING ACROSS TX. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND

AFFECT THE GULF COAST AND TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS TODAY. A REMNANT

LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN AR INTO WESTERN

KY AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO OH. THIS BAND OF STORMS WILL LIKELY

PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED BY

EARLY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOISTURE

OCCURS. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE A RATHER LARGE AREA OF SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY FROM NY/PA SOUTHWARD INTO TN/MS/AL.

..PORTIONS OF TN/OH AND LOWER MS VALLEY

ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE

WILL ONLY SLOWLY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL

TEMPERATURES SHOWN ON 12Z BMX/JAN/BNA RAOBS. HOWEVER...APPROACH OF

UPPER TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ERODE CAP AND LEAD TO SEVERE

STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER

KY/TN BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR

OVER THE WARM SECTOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 0-3KM SRH VALUES

EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2...BUT ALSO SHOW A CONTINUED MID LEVEL INVERSION

WHICH MAY LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE NOT

UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE MAY

OCCUR LATER TODAY IF CONCERNS REGARDING THERMODYNAMICS ARE LESSENED.

REGARDLESS...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND CONSIDERABLE WIND

DAMAGE REMAINS FROM NORTHEAST MS INTO MUCH OF MIDDLE TN/AL AND

SOUTHERN KY. STORMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTH GA TONIGHT BEFORE

DIMINISHING.

...NY/PA INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A RATHER POTENT ENVIRONMENT WILL

DEVELOP LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN NY AND

MUCH OF PA INTO WV/VA. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE

LOWER 60S WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.

RATHER STRONG DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AS

80-100 KT MID LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE REGION. CURRENT INDICATIONS

ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON OVER

PORTIONS OF NY/PA INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND SPREAD QUICKLY

EASTWARD. ONSHORE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL

LIMIT EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF STORMS TO THE COAST. HOWEVER...IT

APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT A RATHER CONCENTRATED AREA OF DAMAGING WINDS

AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR TODAY OVER THIS REGION.

..HART/GARNER.. 04/11/2011

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12z RUC and NAM confirm moderate risk needed:

the old front from KY into TN will stall and likley become the new warm front,,,a low will develop over AR and move east across TN , NAM has low at 999mb at 00z

you can see the new warm sector and cold front on the visible..the outflow boundary(aka "warm front")

The air is capped but should erode over N MS by noon

the low will keep winds backed south with the SW LLJ remaining at 50 kts and 95-100 kt jet streak later

post-142-0-23688900-1302530352.gif

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0409

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0858 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL KY....WRN AND MIDDLE TN...NRN

MS...AND SERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 111358Z - 111500Z

A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING ACROSS

WRN/CENTRAL KY SWWD THROUGH WRN-MIDDLE TN TO NRN MS/SERN AR.

AT 1340Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED TSTMS

EXTENDING FROM FAR SWRN KY SWWD TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. A

LONG-LIVED MCV ATTENDANT TO AN OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE

COMPLEX WAS SUPPORTING THE NERN EXTENT OF ACTIVITY...CURRENTLY

MOVING INTO FAR WRN TN/FAR SWRN KY. 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ PARALLEL TO

AND LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL

DIRECTIONAL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH 400 M2 PER S2/ AS NOTED ON AREA

WSR-88D VWPS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM IS

MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND LIKELY PRECLUDING A GREATER COVERAGE OF

STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...12Z LIT SOUNDING

IS LIKELY MOST REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ENVIRONMENT INVOF THE ONGOING

TSTMS...WHICH GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS SUPPORTS BOTH

A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT GIVEN ALMOST NON-EXISTENT

INHIBITION.

SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ADVECTING 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEWD IN ADVANCE

OF A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH EXTENDED FROM SRN OH TO FAR

WRN KY INTO ERN AR...COMBINED WITH DIABATIC HEATING FILTERED THROUGH

HIGHER CLOUDS WILL AID IN DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION. THIS COMBINED

WITH STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO THE MID SOUTH AND TN/OH

VALLEYS AND STRONG WIND FIELDS SUGGESTS A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE

NEEDED THIS MORNING.

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not being handed well by any models

futher south meso now..the one that concerns me(see my map a few posts ago)

CD

SPC MCD 111446

MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-111515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0410

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0946 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN-SERN AR....FAR NRN LA AND CENTRAL/NRN

MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 111446Z - 111515Z

A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON FOR PARTS OF SRN/SERN AR...FAR

NRN LA INTO CENTRAL/NRN MS. THIS CONCERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A

RECENT INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY OVER SWRN/SRN AR...WITH THE

EVENTUAL TORNADO WATCH POTENTIALLY EXTENDING FARTHER NWD INTO TN/KY

/REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #409/.

MID MORNING OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED AN AREA OF SURFACE PRESSURE

FALLS /2-4 MB PER 3 HRS/ EXTENDING FROM NRN LA INTO SRN AR AND

CENTERED ON THE AR/LA BORDER. SURFACE WINDS OVER SERN AR/NERN LA

INDICATED BACKING WINDS DURING THE LAST 1-2 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO

THESE PRESSURE FALLS. THIS COMBINED WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS

PER NRN LA WIND PROFILER ARE LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS

SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF THE SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS PER IR SATELLITE

IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF EXPANDING TSTM COVERAGE OVER SRN AR

WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING ENE AT 45-50 KT. AS COMPARED TO AREAS

FARTHER N INTO TN/KY...GREATER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE ACROSS THIS

REGION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. THIS COMBINED

WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTING STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL

SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG WIND FIELDS

AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD TODAY WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN

TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT

EXPECTED...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORING

THE FORMER THREAT.

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need to watch that boundary over S TN..that is the old outflow which should stall and move back north from Memphis to nashville....

Memphis may get back into the warm sector just in time as the low passes..not a good place to be

first warnings

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR

1022 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...

LONOKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

NORTHERN PRAIRIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT

* AT 1020 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES

SOUTH OF ESTES...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF DWNTWN LITTLE ROCK...AND

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 75 MPH.

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THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS

PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY

MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI

PARTS OF CENTRAL AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1030 AM UNTIL

500 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

DISCUSSION...STRONG S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD ROTATING

EWD ACROSS LWR MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON DEVELOPING A SURFACE WAVE ON

FRONTAL ZONE SRN AR. STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY EWD

AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE WATCH. THUNDERSTORMS

INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL SRN AR WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD AHEAD OF THE

SURFACE LOW WITH AN ENHANCED WIND PROFILE SUPPORTING BOTH DAMAGING

WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES THRU THE AFTERNOON.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1041 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...NRN AL...MIDDLE TN AND PARTS OF SRN KY

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 111541Z - 111645Z

...DAY 1 OUTLOOK UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK FOR PARTS OF THE MID

SOUTH AND TN VALLEY...

AN INCREASED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS FROM PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH

NEWD THROUGH MIDDLE TN TO PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN KY WARRANTS THE

NEED FOR A MODERATE RISK. ADDITIONAL DETAILS INCLUDING A TORNADO

THREAT WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE UPCOMING 1630Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE

OUTLOOK.

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SPC AC 111609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1109 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER S-CNTRL

KY...MIDDLE TN INTO NRN PARTS OF MS/AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND

WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL/ERN GULF

COAST STATES...

..WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT

..KY/TN INTO LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES

A FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS VORTICITY

MAXIMUM OVER THE SRN PLAINS COMBINED WITH A COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET

STRUCTURE WILL ENHANCE DEEP ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THE SRN PLAINS VORTICITY MAXIMUM

/ANALYZED OVER CNTRL AR AS OF 15Z/ WILL DEVELOP NEWD TO VICINITY OF

S-CNTRL KY OR NRN-MIDDLE TN BY LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE VA

PIEDMONT BY 12/12Z. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD/SEWD

THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES.

12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS ACROSS WARM SECTOR SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF

RATHER WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF

MIDLEVEL JET CORE WHICH WERE RESULTING IN POOR LAPSE RATES.

HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SUGGEST THAT RELATIVELY

STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.

WHEN COUPLED WITH COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /IN ASSOCIATION WITH

12-HR HEIGHT FALLS OF 100-150 M AT 500 MB/...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO

BECOME WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM

500-1000 J/KG OVER THE TN VALLEY TO 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG THE GULF

COAST.

LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD

AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THAT PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS FROM S-CNTRL

KY INTO THE ARKLAMISS WILL ORGANIZE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE INCREASING

LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE

DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND

FIELD AND TENDENCY FOR DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WITHIN THE WARM

SECTOR...SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD

DAMAGING WIND EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS

INTO CNTRL GULF COAST STATES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SE OF MIGRATORY SURFACE

LOW TRACK WHERE AN ISALLOBARICALLY BACKED WIND FIELD WILL ENHANCE

LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE

LIMITED BY THE ANTICIPATED LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE AND THE

ABOVE-MENTIONED TENDENCY FOR DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WHICH WILL

INCREASE T-TD SPREADS.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN

510 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN DAVIDSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

EASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT *

AT 505 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FOREST HILLS...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF FRANKLIN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...

FOREST HILLS...BELLE MEADE AND BRENTWOOD AROUND 515 PM CDT.

OAK HILL AROUND 520 PM CDT.

LP FIELD AND NASHVILLE AROUND 525 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE BERRY HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

638 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN BIBB COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...

SOUTHERN TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 634 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM

WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF MCFARLAND MALL...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF

NORTHPORT...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

------------------------------------------------------------------

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

643 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL BIBB COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...

NORTHERN HALE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

SOUTH CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 643 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM

WAS LOCATED NEAR KNOXVILLE...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF EUTAW...AND

MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

BRENT...CENTREVILLE...MOUNDVILLE...LOW GAP...MERTZ...EOLINE...WEST

CENTREVILLE...TALLADEGA NATIONAL FOREST...MOUNDVILLE AIRPORT AND

MOUND STATE PARK.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

643 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL GREENE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

CENTRAL HALE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 638 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM

WAS LOCATED NEAR WALDEN QUARTERS...OR NEAR EUTAW...AND MOVING EAST

AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

GREENSBORO...WALDEN QUARTERS...WEDGEWORTH...EVANSVILLE...

SAWYERVILLE...GREENSBORO MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...SELDON LOCK AND DAM

AND HARPER HILL.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

652 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

BLOUNT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 648 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM

WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF BLOUNT SPRINGS...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF

CULLMAN...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

CLEVELAND...BLOUNTSVILLE...ONEONTA...BLOUNT SPRINGS...HAYDEN...

BANGOR...NECTAR...LOCUST FORK...FAIRVIEW AND ALLGOOD.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

653 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...

EAST CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 647 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM

WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF BROOKWOOD...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF

HOLT...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

HUEYTOWN...BESSEMER...FAIRFIELD...OAK GROVE...NORTH JOHNS...ALABAMA

ADVENTURE...SYLVAN SPRINGS...MAYTOWN...BRIGHTON AND MULGA.

THIS INCLUDES...

INTERSTATE 459 EXIT NUMBERS 1 THROUGH 10...

INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 104 THROUGH 120...

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Huge severe warning that encompasses the tornado warnings

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

648 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

BIBB COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...

WESTERN CHILTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...

NORTH CENTRAL DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

HALE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

JEFFERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...

PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...

SOUTHWESTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...

SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...

EASTERN TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

SOUTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 648 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A LINE OF

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN

EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING

FROM OAK GROVE TO DUFFYS BEND...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

GREENSBORO...HUEYTOWN...FAIRFIELD...BESSEMER...HOMEWOOD...

GARDENDALE...FULTONDALE AND BIRMINGHAM.

THIS INCLUDES...

INTERSTATE 65 EXIT NUMBERS 228 THROUGH 272...

INTERSTATE 459 EXIT NUMBERS 1 THROUGH 33...

US 78 EXIT NUMBERS 78 THROUGH 91...

INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 68 THROUGH 147...

INTERSTATE 59 EXIT NUMBERS 130 THROUGH 148...

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