janetjanet998 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 looks like a wide area will be under a slight risk please remember the new rules http://www.americanw...eather-threads/ new RUC has a nice new low dveloping over the mid MS valley may need a bump up to moderate later for wind if this low does indeed develop tornado threat will also iNcrease over TN, MS and AL TN VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED SOUTHERN/BASAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH TO THE TN VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BROKEN BANDS OF RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED QUASI-LINEAR STORMS WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING IN A SPATIALLY EXTENSIVE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED CORRIDOR FROM NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RIVERS TO THE MID-SOUTH/ARKLATEX REGIONS. SOME OF THESE COULD BE STRONG/SEVERE AT LEAST IN AN ISOLATED SENSE...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. A SOMEWHAT NARROW /GULF COAST VICINITY ASIDE/ MOIST INFLUX WILL OCCUR TODAY TOWARD THE TN VALLEY...AHEAD OF A WHAT SHOULD BE A REJUVENATION OF DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT...OR PERHAPS MORE LIKELY FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EARLY DAY OUTFLOW-INDUCED EFFECTIVE BOUNDARIES. IT WOULD SEEM THE RELATIVELY STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION /1000-2000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ AND RESULTANT CONVECTIVE UPSWING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD OCCUR FROM EASTERN LA INTO MS/AL AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AND WESTERN GA. AMID STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW /70-100 KT AROUND 500 MB - ONLY SLIGHTLY LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT/...DEEP LAYER SHEAR LARGELY ORIENTED TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT A DOMINANT QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH EMBEDDED BOWS...THOUGH SOME SEMI-DISCRETE/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE DOMINANT CONCERN. WHILE LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL NONETHELESS SUPPORT 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2 WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR SOME TORNADOES. THE SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY MARGINAL/ISOLATED...WITH HAIL STONES GENERALLY LIMITED TO QUARTER SIZE OR LESS. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND GA/NORTH FL THROUGH THE EVENING AND LIKELY BECOME MORE ISOLATED/MARGINAL BY THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..GUYER/HURLBUT.. 04/11/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 Memphis on board..waiting on new day 1 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 642 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011 DISCUSSION /ISSUED 513 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011/ ..THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE MID SOUTH TODAY... THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH APPEARS TO BE INCREASING FOR TODAY...WITH THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED/POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS AREAS BOUNDED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS AREA INCLUDES MUCH OF SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED FURTHER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASED DESTABLIZATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH WITHIN BROAD WARM SECTOR REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WITH EVEN UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS JUST SOUTH. AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS IN EARNEST THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE NOW STRETCHED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION...EXPECTING MUCAPES TO RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED GREATEST CONCERN AREA. AS A SIGNIFICANT INITIALLY POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE OVER WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING MOVES RAPIDLY EAST AND TAKES ON AN INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL TILT AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID SOUTH...EXPECT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 80 TO 100 METERS TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...A POWERFUL 100KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK NOW ORIENTED SW TO NE FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ENHANCE THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE LIFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 70 KTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEUTRALLY TILTED AND THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS OR GREATER. THIS GIVES RISE TO THE POTENTIAL ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND AREA...BUT AFTER CLOSE DISCUSSION WITH SPC...THERE ARE STILL SOME LIMITING FACTORS SUCH AS RESIDUAL MID LEVEL CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL INVERSION AND LESS THAN IDEAL LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE THAT COULD LIMIT A HIGH END WIND THREAT AND UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK AREA. THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED BY THE DAY SHIFT IN CASE THE WIND POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. PLAN TO CONTINUE MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA IN HWO. LINE OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREAS LATER THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE QLCS WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITH QLCS/SQUALL LINE. IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 SPC mentions possible upgrade DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO NY/PA AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS TX. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND AFFECT THE GULF COAST AND TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS TODAY. A REMNANT LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN AR INTO WESTERN KY AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO OH. THIS BAND OF STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOISTURE OCCURS. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE A RATHER LARGE AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY FROM NY/PA SOUTHWARD INTO TN/MS/AL. ..PORTIONS OF TN/OH AND LOWER MS VALLEY ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE WILL ONLY SLOWLY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOWN ON 12Z BMX/JAN/BNA RAOBS. HOWEVER...APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ERODE CAP AND LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER KY/TN BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE WARM SECTOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 0-3KM SRH VALUES EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2...BUT ALSO SHOW A CONTINUED MID LEVEL INVERSION WHICH MAY LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE NOT UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY IF CONCERNS REGARDING THERMODYNAMICS ARE LESSENED. REGARDLESS...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND CONSIDERABLE WIND DAMAGE REMAINS FROM NORTHEAST MS INTO MUCH OF MIDDLE TN/AL AND SOUTHERN KY. STORMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTH GA TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. ...NY/PA INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A RATHER POTENT ENVIRONMENT WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN NY AND MUCH OF PA INTO WV/VA. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. RATHER STRONG DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AS 80-100 KT MID LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE REGION. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NY/PA INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND SPREAD QUICKLY EASTWARD. ONSHORE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL LIMIT EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF STORMS TO THE COAST. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT A RATHER CONCENTRATED AREA OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR TODAY OVER THIS REGION. ..HART/GARNER.. 04/11/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 [ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 I am sure everyone down south would love another widespread wind event after last Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 12z RUC and NAM confirm moderate risk needed: the old front from KY into TN will stall and likley become the new warm front,,,a low will develop over AR and move east across TN , NAM has low at 999mb at 00z you can see the new warm sector and cold front on the visible..the outflow boundary(aka "warm front") The air is capped but should erode over N MS by noon the low will keep winds backed south with the SW LLJ remaining at 50 kts and 95-100 kt jet streak later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0409 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0858 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL KY....WRN AND MIDDLE TN...NRN MS...AND SERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 111358Z - 111500Z A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL KY SWWD THROUGH WRN-MIDDLE TN TO NRN MS/SERN AR. AT 1340Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED TSTMS EXTENDING FROM FAR SWRN KY SWWD TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. A LONG-LIVED MCV ATTENDANT TO AN OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS SUPPORTING THE NERN EXTENT OF ACTIVITY...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR WRN TN/FAR SWRN KY. 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ PARALLEL TO AND LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH 400 M2 PER S2/ AS NOTED ON AREA WSR-88D VWPS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND LIKELY PRECLUDING A GREATER COVERAGE OF STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...12Z LIT SOUNDING IS LIKELY MOST REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ENVIRONMENT INVOF THE ONGOING TSTMS...WHICH GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS SUPPORTS BOTH A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT GIVEN ALMOST NON-EXISTENT INHIBITION. SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ADVECTING 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEWD IN ADVANCE OF A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH EXTENDED FROM SRN OH TO FAR WRN KY INTO ERN AR...COMBINED WITH DIABATIC HEATING FILTERED THROUGH HIGHER CLOUDS WILL AID IN DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO THE MID SOUTH AND TN/OH VALLEYS AND STRONG WIND FIELDS SUGGESTS A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 not being handed well by any models futher south meso now..the one that concerns me(see my map a few posts ago) CD SPC MCD 111446 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-111515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0410 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0946 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN-SERN AR....FAR NRN LA AND CENTRAL/NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 111446Z - 111515Z A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON FOR PARTS OF SRN/SERN AR...FAR NRN LA INTO CENTRAL/NRN MS. THIS CONCERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A RECENT INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY OVER SWRN/SRN AR...WITH THE EVENTUAL TORNADO WATCH POTENTIALLY EXTENDING FARTHER NWD INTO TN/KY /REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #409/. MID MORNING OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED AN AREA OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS /2-4 MB PER 3 HRS/ EXTENDING FROM NRN LA INTO SRN AR AND CENTERED ON THE AR/LA BORDER. SURFACE WINDS OVER SERN AR/NERN LA INDICATED BACKING WINDS DURING THE LAST 1-2 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THESE PRESSURE FALLS. THIS COMBINED WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS PER NRN LA WIND PROFILER ARE LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF THE SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF EXPANDING TSTM COVERAGE OVER SRN AR WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING ENE AT 45-50 KT. AS COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER N INTO TN/KY...GREATER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE ACROSS THIS REGION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. THIS COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTING STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG WIND FIELDS AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD TODAY WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORING THE FORMER THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 need to watch that boundary over S TN..that is the old outflow which should stall and move back north from Memphis to nashville.... Memphis may get back into the warm sector just in time as the low passes..not a good place to be first warnings NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 1022 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS... LONOKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS... NORTHERN PRAIRIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS... SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS... EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS... * UNTIL 1045 AM CDT * AT 1020 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF ESTES...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF DWNTWN LITTLE ROCK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 75 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI PARTS OF CENTRAL AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1030 AM UNTIL 500 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE DISCUSSION...STRONG S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD ROTATING EWD ACROSS LWR MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON DEVELOPING A SURFACE WAVE ON FRONTAL ZONE SRN AR. STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY EWD AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE WATCH. THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL SRN AR WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH AN ENHANCED WIND PROFILE SUPPORTING BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES THRU THE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...NRN AL...MIDDLE TN AND PARTS OF SRN KY CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 111541Z - 111645Z ...DAY 1 OUTLOOK UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK FOR PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH AND TN VALLEY... AN INCREASED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS FROM PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH NEWD THROUGH MIDDLE TN TO PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN KY WARRANTS THE NEED FOR A MODERATE RISK. ADDITIONAL DETAILS INCLUDING A TORNADO THREAT WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE UPCOMING 1630Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 SPC AC 111609 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER S-CNTRL KY...MIDDLE TN INTO NRN PARTS OF MS/AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST STATES... ..WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT ..KY/TN INTO LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES A FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SRN PLAINS COMBINED WITH A COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WILL ENHANCE DEEP ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THE SRN PLAINS VORTICITY MAXIMUM /ANALYZED OVER CNTRL AR AS OF 15Z/ WILL DEVELOP NEWD TO VICINITY OF S-CNTRL KY OR NRN-MIDDLE TN BY LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE VA PIEDMONT BY 12/12Z. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS ACROSS WARM SECTOR SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF RATHER WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF MIDLEVEL JET CORE WHICH WERE RESULTING IN POOR LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SUGGEST THAT RELATIVELY STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. WHEN COUPLED WITH COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /IN ASSOCIATION WITH 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS OF 100-150 M AT 500 MB/...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE TN VALLEY TO 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG THE GULF COAST. LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THAT PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS FROM S-CNTRL KY INTO THE ARKLAMISS WILL ORGANIZE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD AND TENDENCY FOR DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS INTO CNTRL GULF COAST STATES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SE OF MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW TRACK WHERE AN ISALLOBARICALLY BACKED WIND FIELD WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BY THE ANTICIPATED LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE AND THE ABOVE-MENTIONED TENDENCY FOR DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WHICH WILL INCREASE T-TD SPREADS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 so far only outflow grunge crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 510 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN DAVIDSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... EASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... * UNTIL 545 PM CDT * AT 505 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FOREST HILLS...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF FRANKLIN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... FOREST HILLS...BELLE MEADE AND BRENTWOOD AROUND 515 PM CDT. OAK HILL AROUND 520 PM CDT. LP FIELD AND NASHVILLE AROUND 525 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE BERRY HILL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 638 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN BIBB COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA... SOUTHERN TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 730 PM CDT * AT 634 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF MCFARLAND MALL...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF NORTHPORT...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. ------------------------------------------------------------------ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 643 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL BIBB COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA... NORTHERN HALE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... SOUTH CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 730 PM CDT * AT 643 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KNOXVILLE...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF EUTAW...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BRENT...CENTREVILLE...MOUNDVILLE...LOW GAP...MERTZ...EOLINE...WEST CENTREVILLE...TALLADEGA NATIONAL FOREST...MOUNDVILLE AIRPORT AND MOUND STATE PARK. ----------------------------------------------------------------- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 643 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL GREENE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... CENTRAL HALE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 730 PM CDT * AT 638 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WALDEN QUARTERS...OR NEAR EUTAW...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... GREENSBORO...WALDEN QUARTERS...WEDGEWORTH...EVANSVILLE... SAWYERVILLE...GREENSBORO MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...SELDON LOCK AND DAM AND HARPER HILL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 652 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... BLOUNT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 730 PM CDT * AT 648 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF BLOUNT SPRINGS...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF CULLMAN...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CLEVELAND...BLOUNTSVILLE...ONEONTA...BLOUNT SPRINGS...HAYDEN... BANGOR...NECTAR...LOCUST FORK...FAIRVIEW AND ALLGOOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 653 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA... EAST CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 745 PM CDT * AT 647 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF BROOKWOOD...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOLT...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HUEYTOWN...BESSEMER...FAIRFIELD...OAK GROVE...NORTH JOHNS...ALABAMA ADVENTURE...SYLVAN SPRINGS...MAYTOWN...BRIGHTON AND MULGA. THIS INCLUDES... INTERSTATE 459 EXIT NUMBERS 1 THROUGH 10... INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 104 THROUGH 120... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Huge severe warning that encompasses the tornado warnings BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 648 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... BIBB COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA... WESTERN CHILTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA... NORTH CENTRAL DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... HALE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... JEFFERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA... PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA... SOUTHWESTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA... SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA... EASTERN TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... SOUTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 745 PM CDT * AT 648 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OAK GROVE TO DUFFYS BEND...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... GREENSBORO...HUEYTOWN...FAIRFIELD...BESSEMER...HOMEWOOD... GARDENDALE...FULTONDALE AND BIRMINGHAM. THIS INCLUDES... INTERSTATE 65 EXIT NUMBERS 228 THROUGH 272... INTERSTATE 459 EXIT NUMBERS 1 THROUGH 33... US 78 EXIT NUMBERS 78 THROUGH 91... INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 68 THROUGH 147... INTERSTATE 59 EXIT NUMBERS 130 THROUGH 148... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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