am19psu Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Behind the major snowstorm affecting the Midwest early this week, leftover shortwave energy will eject out of the Southern Rockies midweek. As has been the theme through most of winter, cyclogenesis will begin anew in the Gulf of Mexico Friday. The core of the coldest air will be west of the area of cyclogenesis and the antecedent airmass in place over the SE will not be particularly cold. Still, this is the type of sneaky overrunning situation that could produce wintry precip across N MS/N AL/N GA. As currently modeled, precipitation would be mostly rain, but watch for later runs to highlight the freezing rain/sleet threats across the SE. By Saturday night, the GFS has low pressure sitting near Gainesville. However, with no block over the North Atlantic and high pressure set up over Bermuda, warm advection will keep things mostly rain across the Mid-Atlantic. Aloft, the 500mb pattern is not conducive for a storm to ride up the Atlantic Seaboard. Confluent, zonal flow would take the low pressure out to sea. Without high pressure sliding down across Hudson Bay (which, if you recall was unmodeled at this time frame for the 1/25-1/27 storm), there is very little synoptic help to drive this up the coast. Obviously, things can change seven days out, and given the seasonal trends, I'm not terribly confident that this won't find a way to trend westward, but I don't think this particular storm has a high chance of being a major hit across the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Texas as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Now, that's the synoptic situation. What could happen to make things better? Here are the 6-10d analogs from the GEFS. If you look in the bottom right, there are two KU storms there. One was 2/7/1967 and the other was 2/8/2003. The 2003 storm had significant northern stream phasing. That's somewhat similar to the 0z European model. In order for that to happen, shortwave energy will have to drop out of Canada perfectly, but it remains possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Texas as well. The thermal profiles are much better back there for wintry precip, but it's a question if you can get enough low level WAA to produce enough lift for precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The thermal profiles are much better back there for wintry precip, but it's a question if you can get enough low level WAA to produce enough lift for precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 The differences between the GFS and the CMC are huge at this time frame. Since the CMC blows everything up farther west, you get strong WAA creating ridging out in front and a 1024 high over the NE, allowing everything to come up the coast. CMC GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Analog: Last week Look for trends in delaying the storm and look for models going too warm along the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Analog: Last week Look for trends in delaying the storm and look for models going too warm along the East Coast. Yeah, especially if the northern stream amplification that the Euro is showing holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 The 0z GFS showed a good phase with the northern stream, but otherwise, most of the other guidance trended toward an offshore solution, which still remains most likely at this time, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 And yet SPS's are flying this morning from Brownsville to Houston regarding -SN/-ZR for Thursday/Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Now, that's the synoptic situation. What could happen to make things better? Here are the 6-10d analogs from the GEFS. If you look in the bottom right, there are two KU storms there. One was 2/7/1967 and the other was 2/8/2003. The 2003 storm had significant northern stream phasing. That's somewhat similar to the 0z European model. In order for that to happen, shortwave energy will have to drop out of Canada perfectly, but it remains possible. Well, it looks like there will be some northern stream help with this system, but it remains unclear when. The 0z Euro and Euro ensemble both show an early phase and bring the system up west of the Appalachians. The GFS and Canadian models show a later phase and bring the storm up the coast with mainly rain along the coast and I-95, except for New England. Multi-model ensemble spread remains large, so there is still hope for the coast if the phase times right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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