TellicoWx

Original low goes ots while goofy blows up second lp near charleston at 174

Less juiced on that 12z GFS run, precip shield doesn't make it north of TN/KY line.

12z GFS looks to be coming in south and colder than 00z so far.

Just got home from work and looking at the 00z Euro Ens members. Definitely not good south of 40. Here's the numbers compared to 12z: Loc/ % +/- of 3"/ % +/- 1"+

CHAT: 22% (-30%), 32% (-38%)

TYS: 22% (-22%), 48% (-8%)

TRI: 44% (-14%), 82% (+4%)

PLAT: 46% (-16%), 74% (0)

MTN: 72% (0), 94% (+4%)

10 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

Tonight's Euro isn't much in west Tennessee but increasingly gets better the further east you go especially north of I-40 until eventually you get up into my neck of the woods. In total it showed 21-24 inches after 33 hours of consistent moderate snowfall with no hat tricks at any point before during or after. I can dream.

Yeah, you guys get clowned on that run. Euro and Ukie, FV3 to an extent trying to phase the Northern stream in now...should be an interesting week of runs.

To me the 500 and surface don't look bad, it's at the 850 level. There is a vort that is trending further north pulling waa with it. 

The 850 vort came north into the TN valley vs N AL/N GA on the 18z vs 12z, leading to stronger waa and more ice vs snow before the changeover to rain. The surface low can take the same path, but with a weaker high allowing the 850 north most here would end up with a cold rain. GEFS mean lowered some due to a couple more members with that evolution.

Here's the breakdown on the Euro individual members: Loc / % 3+/ % 1+ (% 6+)

NE TN: 58/78 (28)

TYS: 42/56 (18)

CHAT: 52/70 (26)

PLAT: 62/74 (36)

MTNS: 72/90 (48)

Pretty decent numbers being this far out.

Euro Ensembles say OP may not have been off it's rocker.

The algorithms on weather us site must be goofy, cause if not the Euro just told the FV3 "hold my beer, watch this" lol. 

Still a long ways out, and things will trend one way or the other, but right now the key piece to me is how strong and where does the 850 vort track. The stronger it is the more advection and rain we see.

Another view of the temp affection difference between the two, GFS (top) vs FV3 (bot):

12z GFS sounding @156 (rain) top vs 12z FV3 sounding (snow/sleet). On the GFS the DP has already advected warmer vs the FV3.

7 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

I’m pretty sure the FV3 GFS incorrectly assumes sleet and freezing rain as snow on the clown maps. But it is colder overall. Even gives Chatty a front end thump of snow.

The algorithms each site uses varies to a degree, so you end up with two different totals from the same run. The difference between the 12z GFS and 12z FV3 is in the soundings. As the 850 vort passes over N AL/N GA, the GFS has a slightly stronger warm nose that pushes the temp between 700/800 above freezing, the FV3 is weaker and keeps the temp at that column right at or below freezing.

It is definitely the algorithm on tropical tidbits. TT (top), Dupage (bottom).

Wow, just actually looked at FV3 op...lmao. Social media is gonna explode on that one.

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Those snow maps have to have an issue w the algorithm.  But algorithm or not, the FV3 tracks is a nice one.

Same with the mean SLP track on the GEFS, right along the gulf coast to Charleston

12z GEFS mean:

12z GEFS looks good for the mean and individual members, especially for you guys in NE. 

Looking at each of the individual snow depth Euro Ens members, 12z took another step in the right direction. The pct of members has slowly been increasing the last 3 runs from around 20% to 40% for a significant winter storm in our area. Hopefully, the trend comtinues.

Looking at the Euro Ens individual members, at very noticeable shift into the Northern camp (I40 north into KY). Southern solution members dropped from roughly 35% to around 20% for areas south of 40.

Just starting to follow the event since it's within the Euro Ens time frame, but if you need a fix of snow porn lol, some of the individual members go crazy with the depth. It seems on the 12z there is 3 camps, each to a varying degree. 1 takes everything over KY, 2 is the slider solution which focuses on TN and hammers NC, and 3 is nothing to see here. The lean on the 12z was slightly in favor of the 1 camp. Should be fun to watch the trends over the next several days as the individual members should start coming together.

MRX disco for Monday evening:

Per SPC discussion, there is a potential of long-lived tornado
supercells with the southern Plateau and southeast Tennessee
placed in an enhanced potential of severe storms.

Had a possible tornado touchdown just south of Tellico Plains in Coker Creek area. 1 structure damaged alot of trees/power poles snapped. Currently 1048 FLEC customers out of power. No injuries.

lol...06z GFS increases totals across W NC and expands precip NW across E TN