TellicoWx

Just saw a video from just NW Jonesboro, AR...they have changed over to moderate snow sticking to the grass and side streets.

19 minutes ago, John1122 said:

850s have dropped further south at the top of the hour update. The 0 degree line is now S of Nashville I believe and it's touching the Hamilton County line. -1 over the Northern Plateau and Valley. Also notable if Arkansas is seeing snow. the 850 line is barely into northern Arkansas.

The changeover reports and pics in AR was happening halfway between the state line and Jonesboro.

18 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Areas in the valley below Loudon/Blount would have had a greater increase in snowfall, but the Euro warms the 925's during the day tomorrow (850's below 0 across the entire valley)

Lol, just noticed the 925 map looks like the Euro is pointing at NE TN as if to say I'm coming for you.

Difference 1° made in the 850 line over East TN on startup of Euro

20 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Currently the 850 is 80-100 miles south of the NAM/3K/FV3/GFS/CMC/RGEM

Euro actually moved the 850 line 75 miles or so to the south at startup (6hr), but moved it right where it was on the 00z in next frame. 

Just now, PowellVolz said:

Looks like the heavy snow line didn’t move much south but the overall snow line moved 25-30 miles south of Knoxville.


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Precip rates increased but 00z didn't have the warm tongue at 925

Areas in the valley below Loudon/Blount would have had a greater increase in snowfall, but the Euro warms the 925's during the day tomorrow (850's below 0 across the entire valley)

12z Euro (includes 2nd piece)

Interesting, 12z Euro has the second trailing piece as well Monday morning.

12z Euro with more moisture and quicker changeover even in the valley vs 00z

Changeover to snow starting in AR...some decent icing on trees and powerlines from the pics I've seen.

The thing with winter weather/tornado warnings...if you cry wolf too many times, people won't react when the wolf actual comes. NE TN has been almost a lock for several days now, so a warning early out for there only is a good call.

4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

I cannot see how MRX can ignore the trends this morning. I really wish if they were just going with their gut on this they would tell us that and I would respect it. It’s better that way than leaving everyone scratching their heads wondering what they are looking at, especially the northern plateau areas which look almost as good as the NE valley.

 

 

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They erred on the side of caution. At the afternoon update, we will be roughly right at the 18 hr lead time window, and we will see an expansion or issuance of a WWA  (prob knox/Loudon area north). In the public's eyes, it's easier to upgrade then it is the cancel (people always remember the blown forecast to the bad more). We have all seen models lose a system, that was very consistent, between 24-18 hrs out and bust...so they waited for the edge of the issuance envelope.

What little I've seen of the 12z FV3, it stays the course, crazy how consistent it is.

On the 12z NAM, the area between Knox and Monroe/McMinn Co is about 1° to warm at 850 or the snow output would mirror Knox roughly. On the 12z 3k, it's even greate as it blazes the 850s over this area. Starting late tonight the PWS will help tell which is more correct.

There is a PWS up on the Cherohala Skyway near Indian Boundary Lake, I look at it to see the trends up in elevation. My temps here in the valley have been steady for past couple hours at 37. The station up on the mtn has began warming in the last hour and is now above my temp.

12z 3K ups totals in central valley around knox

12z NAm

I believe MRX is holding off until this afternoon to get a complete look at everything, the 850 (what brings the snow/ice) is still back in W TX...plenty of time to hold off. Any snow outside extreme NE TN today is a bonus, the "show" comes with how the 850 comes thru.

Hr27 12z NAM

4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

This is from the WPC regarding the Southern Apps and the GFS vs the other models.

 

You would think they would have pulled at least a WWA for north of 40

4 minutes ago, McMinnWx said:

Raining here in Athens. Hoping we can get at least some accumulating snow, but I’m not getting my hopes up. 

Lol, I'm just trying to find a snowflake. 

12 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Sleet/snow mix has begun in WB. Sticking to ground from what I can tell. 

Radar looks to be filling in nicely there too

38 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I fully expect the WFO to pretty much ride the GFS. JKL is doing it already.

Yep, rode the GFS

6z 3k vs 00z