TellicoWx

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

LOL.  Yeah, go check out those low temps that accompany that.  There is another cold shot after next weekend on the GFS that delivers those accums...question is does the cold get into the SE after next weekend?  EPS and Euro are kind of dodgy regarding that time frame with the EPS breaking in continuity from its 0z run and a ridge over the East for d10-15(this has been going on for a couple of weeks).  GFS just goes all-in.  Will be interesting to watch if that cold does come SE.  

Definitely would like to see the GEFS start to have some agreement with the OP, GEFS in same type camp as Euro...more of a glancing shot for the SE. Those temps tho on that run lol...fun to see what a little snow can do. After the last few years, starting to think whatever used to be normal output for the analogs, ENSO, and everything else we use...now just needs flipped. Atmosphere almost acts in reverse compared to normal as far as long range.

Still was able to generate first weenie map of the winter lol..

18z Goofus was close to something..

Lots of energy in the modeling across the northern stream, driving that high south. If somehow could get a little more action from the southern stream.... 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Growing up I had never heard of a downslope wind in this area.  Great find.  We have our own chinook... Folks that wonder what we talk about during winter storm downsloping events can get a good idea what we deal with from that map.  Sometimes I wonder what we called the "warm nose" was actually just a downslope event.  Now, obviously the warm nose is its own thing...but sometimes I think it is made worse by a downslope event.

Completely agree with the mini "Chinook" effect Carver. Today was a good example of the tons of microclimates around the area. Due to the angle approach of the wind field with the front, the downsloping was not as pronounced over the southern foothills and valley....which is why I think there was more wind energy (and damage) across the central/northern valley counties. As far as winter storm effects, Tellico is a great area to study exactly what you are referring to. We sit in a horseshoe here in town, so it's easy to watch how the downsloping plays out. What I've noticed is when there is a warm 850 layer, with decent wind speeds, it does seemingly mix the 850 temps to the surface quicker....kinda going hand in hand with each other (downslope/warm nose). End result is usually Tellico has a quicker changeover to rain in that scenario, compared to all the other locations in the county.

45 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

@Blue Ridge has some great satellite photos in the severe thread of the downslope.  Looks like things were really rolling in Knox Co now.  Severe line now headed for NE TN.

Graph of how the downsloping kicked in this morning as the front approached 

7 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Nice,but that would just be such a big tease to me

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR
844 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019

TNZ088-311545-
Shelby-
Including the cities of Bartlett, Germantown, Collierville,
Memphis, and Millington
844 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...Light snow falling over portions of Shelby County...

A band of light snow was falling across portions of southeastern Shelby
County, and may affect portions of Germantown and Collierville in
the next 15 to 20 minutes. This light snow is not expected to
accumulate.

 

Lol, mother nature def pulling out all the Tricks for Halloween...not so much on the Treats.

NWS Memphis receiving reports of light snow/flurries across northern Shelby Co.

Front just reached the plateau, always interesting to see how quickly the cold can spill over it.

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see some light accumulations above 5,000' in the NE TN mountains and NW mountains of NC.

3k def would agree with you Carver, and with how quick the drop is in temps, plus the upslope squeezing whatever moisture trails behind I wouldn't be too surprised.

Almost 30° swing across the state behind the front...Happy Halloween lol.

11 hours ago, Greyhound said:

Any idea where I can find gust speeds for Cherohala Skyway? We did a Jeep ride over/across it this afternoon and had some strong winds to deal with.

Sent from my XT1710-02 using Tapatalk
 

I live in Tellico on the Skyway, highest station in elevation was at Indian Boundary on the TN side but it no longer reports. There is a couple of military areas near the peak, but have never seen anywhere you can access the info. 

3 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Euro has an old fashioned autumn cold front Halloween evening coming through the Valley,i say old fashioned because we haven't seen one in a few years  where temps could drop behind it  15-20 degrees after it passes right after.First time it's showed it so use caution

Yeah been watching the 10/31-11/1 timeframes on the GEFS for a few days now. It's been showing a fairly decent front passage in that window. 18z temps for the for the 30th have been trending up each day (+16° so far). Frontal timing has been wavering between early morning hours on 31st and during the overnight on 31st. Fairly decent chance of first potential freeze following here.

The common analog on SARS the last several runs is 4/18/69. That system produced an F4 in Greenville, AL killing 2. A total of 13 tornadoes formed, mostly in the F0-F2 range. A 218 mi path was also recorded in southern GA and rated F2. Storm caused 50 injuries, besides the 2 deaths in the F4.

22 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

The EF5 was in Lawrence County.  Only one ever in TN (I think).  Also known as the forgotten one.  The Nashville one was EF2/3.

I am thinking the Nam is way off.  We shall see.

Yeah, I got the counties crossed. 00z backed off. With the main low trending further north, the threat is lessening some. 

By no means am I saying this is how it will play out, but it is a little unnerving the date of the analogs on the 18z NAM. April 1998 was the F5 in Davidson Co.

3.3 earthquake Maynardville area

Flash Flood Watch for Whitley Co due to a possible dam about to fail:

Including the cities of Corbin and Williamsburg
351 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for a portion of south central Kentucky,
  including the following area, Whitley.

* Through Tuesday afternoon

* Recent heavy rains have led to the strong potential of a dam
  failure on a dam on located along Corinth road in the Little
  Spruce Creek drainage about 2 miles southwest of Woodbine.

* If the dam were to completely fail, flash flooding is expected
  for a couple of miles downstream of the dam.

Almost time to breakout the purples again unfortunately...12z GEFS 

1 hour ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Think I am going to bust high on Precip for the day.  Already at .75" and precip rates are running pretty high at times, looking at radar and current rates I anticipate around 2" minimum today, way above forecast.

Will bust a little higher than most modeling (way higher than MRX/local forecasts). Most areas between Huntsville and southern Mid TN picked up around 1.5" 

13 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Models are showing the Atmospheric River cranking back up into the 2nd week of March.WPC has already highlighted parts of the East into the Valley with heavy rain.Even though we see weak systems until then the FFG should still be rather low.

Yeah, GEFS has been putting a bullseye across parts of the upper/mid south for a couple days now...EURO has too, but with a little lesser amounts.

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Looks to me like it is already worse than pretty much every model predicted for today, even 6z suite this AM:

 

0z ARW2 wasn't too bad with it's progression. 

I understand the yellows/ oranges on NEXRAD aren't exact equivalencies to a models 6/3 hr precip. or projected radar depiction, but still, those look like pretty high rates moving in. 

Most of the bright returns over west TN is brightbanding. 3k was a little to slow and Euro a little too far south, but so far amounts in west TN are close to what GFS had. Big question is does the convection develop over central/southern AL robbing the moisture transport north.

Picked up 1.14" so far here and still pouring

Big jump N on the 18z NAM...hopefully on overcorrection 

Definitely need to keep an eye on the weekend system across SE TN...Euro/NAM/CMC 12z suite showing 3"-5" across NW GA. GFS has similar range further south over Atlanta.