brooklynwx99

GEFS is more amped than 12z

this is pretty impressive

GEFS is obscene

NOT advocating for this kind of solution but it is kinda eerie how similar these are

almost the exact same ridge/trough alignment

can’t ask for much better at this range

can’t really ask for much better at this range

EPS is much more amplified

might not have gotten it done this run, but this is much better

really nice 00z suite. improvements all around

yeah, this is much better

ECMWF has more stream interaction

definitely more interaction now

should be a bit better, higher EC heights and more stream interaction

GEPS looks much better

GEFS has much more stream interaction

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I'd call that a minor change in the right direction. The southern-most vortmax is still on the wrong - upstream side, and the primary shortwave trof is not sharp or amplified enough. This won't get it done, even for DC.

the end result isn’t a hit, but this is as much of a positive change as you can really see inside of five days

GFS is much improved

this is much improved

GFS really looks improved

NS more amped, SS not getting as trapped

much more confluence as opposed to 18z thanks to more phasing of the ocean storm with the TPV early on… let’s see where this goes

to put this into perspective, the OP GFS has the low much farther west than the farthest west GEFS member… which is already an outlier

the vast majority of the tracks are near perfect, and it seems as if the real threat to this storm is a missed phase over the Rockies ala the ICON

to put this into perspective, the OP GFS has the low much farther west than the farthest west GEFS member… which is already an outlier

the vast majority of the tracks are near perfect, and it seems as if the real threat to this storm is a missed phase over the Rockies ala the ICON

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

so did the OP

nah, the OP at the same lead time significantly raised heights over New England (look over NH/ME), which helped lead to the farther W track. interesting that the GEFS didn’t buy it whatsoever and actually moved the other way

the GEFS actually has stronger confluent flow over the NE than 12z… this will allow for a farther SE track even if the shortwave is more amplified

the GEFS, as a result, shows that the OP remains a significant western outlier. the vast majority of the members are near or just inside the BM. even the most W members aren’t really close to PA where the OP had it

as expected, given the stronger confluence, the OP GFS is a significant western outlier compared to the GEFS

looks like the GEFS actually increased the confluent flow over the NE, this is great to see

the vort itself is stronger as well. confluence will almost always exert itself more than a shortwave, so a mixture of both would still result in a more favorable track the majority of the time