brooklynwx99

really nice change for the GEFS. that block keeps getting stronger… great signal for that range

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm... I know we've been over this so often the earth is now packed into concrete but I really don't want a big west based elephant ass. 

Not accusing you of doing so, but the jest tends to ensue a following of posts where people love the big 500 mb magenta, chart edging blob over D. Straight and I cannot underscore enough, that is not really what you want if you want ... E19 ( see above post)... 

Particularly if the -PNA/ southern warm wall isn't going away - which I don't suspect it is... It's anchored by 3 years of Nina momentum and more intangible angst than Sleepy Hollow.    In fact, if the elephant sits on our trampoline height field, it may look like the southern warm wall is in abeyance but that would be an allusion - a lie betrayed by the fact that the wind between Denver and NS will be 120 kts as a base state velocity. 

Wrong... no E19 for you, ONE YEAR!

yeah, it’s really when the block decays. that’s when you get the big dogs historically

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Weenie davis straight block on gfs with a WC ridge to boot. Patience.

absolute monster block. wild

blocking is also trending stronger and moving forward in time on the EPS. nice trends with the PNA out west too

retrograding ridge is now showing up on the mean. nice to see

again, most of the members with a SE ridge don't have the blocking at all or they keep it east-based and over Iceland. the vast majority of members with a legit central/west-based -NAO have the typical 50/50 response

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

 

At least this is forming in a classic manner…when we get big UK/Scandi ridge retrograding into an NAO block, it is more believable than other evolutions. Sometimes we’ll get duped by shallower wave-breaking events in the North Atlantic or Labrador and they seem to fall apart easier in guidance. 
 

Hopefully this one is real. 

i mean... this is kinda sorta how that December block formed. same kinda Scandi retrograding block, and it got picked up around the same time

I agree with you in that this is how you'd want to see a block evolve. it's certainly more reliable than the shitty wave-break stuff. the SSW also bolsters the case for it

I'm also looking at the indies and it looks like if we get that block, there most likely won't be SE ridge issues. the vast majority of members with a SE ridge are the ones that keep the block over Iceland or don't develop it at all

only a couple members with the blocking truly link it with a SE ridge

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah let’s get that to move SW. 

nice to see the retrogression on the mean, too. that is legit

blocking is becoming stronger and moving up in time. this is compared to 12z yesterday

that is a very strong signal for this range

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah nobody should count on it being right…but if your looking for optimism, I can’t remember the last time we got a lot of weenie GFS runs before the last few days. Probably have to go back to early December at the beginning of that blocking period. It’s a sign that the pattern is more favorable than it was…but still keep caution flags up for all the reasons we’ve already discussed. 

this retrograding Scandi block is pretty classic looking. hopefully we can keep this on guidance

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL, same ole story.

 

hey, I’m good with that if we end up here

8 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

kinda odd its not a concern of yours given the depth of the WC trough, SE ridge has been under modeled in the extended all winter.  I would say the main concern is any blocking that does develop actually moves too far south like we saw in Jan and links up with the SE ridge for a mega ridge.  Having the MJO try and fail repeatedly in phase 8 just reinforces this idea.

I don’t think it’s impossible, but the GEFS indies show that if a legit -NAO develops, it is far more likely that it forces the typical 50/50 response rather than a full latitude ridge

therefore, I’ll keep it in the back of my mind, but I’m not gonna say it’s likely or anything 

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yes but you can see higher heights over Alaska and western Canada in March 2018

If you're just relying on the -NAO then that could easily link with the SE ridge under a strong RNA pattern. 

This is not a 2018 look. SE ridge would likely correct stronger

i know, I’m not making a direct comparison, just stating that I don’t think a -PNA would be that big of a deal this late in the year if we get a legit block to develop

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The block is coming IMO...two ways we can get porked. Some flukey crap with the PV, like December, or more likely via compression between the block and any RNA derived se ridging.

 

 

i think it’s harder to see the -PNA screw things up than in December due to the shorter wavelengths 

March 2018 had a pretty deep -PNA but the block worked its magic

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s just something to watch. If we lose any confluence it’s over.  There is no stopping the tendencies out west. 

I agree. if we don’t get the block, we’re screwed. if we do, we could be in for a nice period due to the confluence

i think it’s kinda all or nothing. the scenario where the block links up with SE ridging isn’t too much of a concern of mine

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

that would literally spit out a KU 75% of the time

41 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Lets see if it translates to an improving h5 pattern. Oh look, a SE ridge about to link up with a -NAO!

We are stuck with the same general mild pattern with storms tracking west until that Aleutian ridge weakens. Some of the extended products get there, but might be too late for most of us. Always the chance we time something perfectly as the boundary briefly shifts southward heading into early March.

i’m not sure how “real” that SE ridge on the mean is. most of the members that do have a legit SE ridge have no blocking. I think it might be skewing things a bit

a few members link the block and the SE ridge, but most force a big 50/50 and/or a trough over the EC… basically the classic response to a west based block

around half of the members do have a SE ridge, but this is mainly from a lack of blocking, and this is making it look like we’d have more of a SE ridge than we would if we had a legit block

if we end up getting one, we’d likely see the typical response from it, not a SE ridge

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Heights start rising over the SE and we sort of lose the 50/50 near the end. We need that to stay. 
 

 

I’m not sure how “real” that SE ridge on the mean is. most of the members that do have a legit SE ridge have no blocking. I think it might be skewing things a bit

a few members link the block and the SE ridge, but most force a big 50/50 or a trough over the EC… basically the classic response to a west based block

damn, this is the strongest we’ve seen the -NAO yet. some members likely have a legit west-based block here

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

18z Gfs ftw.

Feb 2021 redux and then another blizzard immediately after. the weeniest of weenie runs lmao

1 minute ago, vegan_edible said:

18z gfs decided to hit the crackpipe this evening and have some delusions of grandeur

Feb 2021 redux to a T lmao

not sure if I've prayed harder for anything more in my life

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Very true but I don’t think it’s foolish to realize that day 10-15 looks mean nothing and we should wait until it’s inside day 7 before getting excited that the persistence is ending. Especially when those day 10 looks continue to be versions of the same tease that mutates in the same way into the same crap. 
 

Simply relying on persistence would be bad science but so would crying wolf 50 times a winter at every half decent day 10-15 look. 

I get what you mean. I'm not getting excited by any of it, though. just noting that there may be some changes due to the SSW and potential blocking as a result

I think it's worth mentioning possible changes

47 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 

Yeah, it has worked out well for us in the LR so far

I mean, guidance is guidance regardless of how the winter has gone so far. it's not very wise to just ignore it

I get the frustration, but persistence is always genius until it's wrong at the worst time