brooklynwx99

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Have a hard time buying that.

me too. just weird seeing the most skilled piece of guidance we have end up that aggressive. something will give by tomorrow

this would be quite the flop from the AIFS-ENS

12 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

And the EPS were a whiff, which is why it wasn't posted 

spread tightened up

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Energy over Michigan dives south this run that makes the difference , probably can just toss this run 

if only it wasn't the highest skill model we have at this range

why even look at the euro do this shit when you have the AIFS

well, euro is a full phaser

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro AI waaay south.

its ensemble has consistently been farther north FWIW

this can work. vort is a lot more defined than 00z

still looking like the warmup after the 16th is transient as that -WPO builds poleward and closer to AK while -NAO blocking lingers. we get the TPV back into Canada as well

sure, most of the cold is in the west, but this allows for a more active look here 

still looking like the warmup after the 16th is transient as that -WPO builds poleward and closer to AK while -NAO blocking lingers. we get the TPV back into Canada as well

sure, most of the cold is in the west, but this allows for a more active look here 

11-12th is more coherent on the EPS, pops a few coastals

lol models have no clue. this is the run to run change, not regular 500mb

looks like any warmup is pretty brief with the -WPO building poleward... with some Canadian ridging / low NATL heights lingering, would remain conducive to some marginal threats

thanks for the kind words, snowman. always appreciated

hopefully we see a continuation of this cold and wintry pattern… the beating the SPV is going to take likely helps us there 

well, here we go. not sure when exactly the blocking is going away

this is pretty striking. retrograding block and a legit 50/50 in place... vort over the Four Corners is making its way under the block

18z EPS had almost 1" liquid into Boston and the GFS and CMC both have nothing. what a world we live in

it's odd, one would think that the EPS would be "worse" than the GFS since there is less stretching, but that is not the case at all. such a weird setup

lol. if the 00z holds i will get more excited

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Ive noticed it a lot this winter especially but over the past several years. If 00Z doesnt slide back E, ill be a lot more convinced this is real. Want to see some consistency, lot of waffling right now...but we're still in that range.

woooosh wolfie

yeah if it holds at 00z it's real

5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

It seems the last 48 hours the off run euro runs are west of the 12/00z. Not really sure why, but it’s been consistent like that

yeah, there has been a 18z euro tax. not sure why. but fun to see

they literally made the euro run at off hours so that it could be less accurate and more annoying to use. what a concept

nice trend with the jet streak over ME

EPS tripled precip from 12z lol

huge move by the EPS