brooklynwx99

3 hours ago, EasternLI said:

January looks quite promising actually. Look at the direction of travel on the EPS. We're starting out the month with what looks increasingly likely to be strong blocking. So it's a time to keep eyes open simply due to that.

Then, beyond that, the big Pacific block was taken out. There's a trough now in the Aleutian Islands forcing a +PNA. With what very well could be a decaying west based NAO block by then... There's some really good potential in all of that as we head into peak climo. 

yeah, legitimately exciting... that -NAO is uptrending, too. the 5-7th is our first legit shot at a larger region-wide storm. pattern becomes even more favorable after that, too

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I was just going to comment on that.  Forget the weird solution for sensible weather, the set up is loaded...right out of the KU book.

this poses some promise

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z EPS depicts an an impressive west based -NAO with a TPV lobe underneath. Pacific isnt perfect but hints of some energy taking the southern route and some sort of interaction/phasing with the NS around the 6th. Details sketchy as expected but a signal for something is there.

 

yeah, starting to get excited. that's legit

and the pattern is only becoming more favorable as the PNA rises and EPO drops

22 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Radar returns have moved east of Morris County, but it's still snowing steadily. Looks a bit like an inverted trof. I suspect it's low level stuff below the radar beam. Let's keep it going a few more hours!

yup, still light-mod snow here, measured 2.4” 10 mins ago… very happy to end up getting close to 3” when all is said and done given how the event began

looking squally

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

yea i saw i just posted that, NAM, 3K, and RAP as well...

associated with the main vort moving through, makes sense

RGEM is doing a better job with the main 700mb FGEN axis than the NAM, which looks too far north

looks like we're seeing 700mb WAA/FGEN get going, as well as some nice PVA... we should see snow blossom over the next couple of hours

the vort trending more amplified is actually good… we get mid level forcing along with the WAA, allowing for more liquid initially (which is when most of the snow falls, anyway)

34 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I actually think BGM is more likely to mix with sleet than western LI as crazy as that sounds... because of the track of the 700mb low. Otherwise I agree, good map.

yeah, would angle it more NW-SE than that map implies

i would go with 2-4” here in Morristown and 3-6” in the city. def could be on the low side, but would rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed 

it’s been a while since we’ve been looking at potential warning snowfall in the city in the middle of the holiday season. everyone in the metro should enjoy 

NAM has the main vortmax over upstate NY rather then into the metro like the euro and other models… i suspect that’s erroneous 

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

I don't love how close we are to the cutoff line on some models and future trends can easily doom us (or it can trend better) but that's pretty much a given with most storms here. 

gotta be near the mixing line to get the best snow 

really looking good for the metro’s first warning level snow in quite some time. we can see 1-2”/hr rates as FGEN pushes in during the evening, especially NW towards 287

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

Unless there is strong coupling between the stratosphere & troposphere it really does not matter.

 

same exact thing happened last year, though it was even more impressive with a lack of a SSW. gives more credence to prolonged blocking with the EPS reloading in the LR

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

It probably is a result of smoothing and averaging, but that would be something pretty damn good to work with...if we got the TPV to dig exactly as shown. There really is no way to see each member, is there? The OP doesn't dig as aggressively and we would probably need to see the OP more in line of the ENS to really make this potentially noteworthy. I'd be curious to know where each member stands 

that isn’t even the animation of the run though, that’s the trend for the same valid time. it’s so drastic it looks like the same run 

can also see the jet beginning to extend in the LR as another MJO wave traverses the MC along with strengthening +EAMT... as this wave enters the WHEM in mid-late Jan, we might have another favorable period

lol this is an absurd shift

this is pretty comical. NYE is now a legit timeframe to watch with that amplifying trough

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is pretty nice for far SW CT for Saturday. Rest of SNE is light snow that is probably getting shredded…prob 1-2” type deal. 

really likes the NYE timeframe. has the TPV take a trip south and boom 

lol at this trend in the Pacific. went from an AK trough of doom to legit +PNA

26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Moisture slamming into a cold dome could yield a lot of snow but agree that it's very unlikely to be this far south unless blocking is very strong 

there is a nearly 3 sigma -NAO developing as this system moves in, so I would argue that blocking is indeed very strong

EPS continues to tick colder. mean is about 4" for NYC

i generally like this kind of event... shove moisture into HP and you usually have success

lol

this is a potent setup