brooklynwx99

i do think that 2013-14 is a solid analog for other reasons, though... ENSO strength and orientation is a dead ringer along with similar QBO and solar

On 9/7/2025 at 12:48 PM, weathafella said:

The NPAC is kind of delicious.

yeah, lots of warm water off the WC and in the GoA

no chatter about NPAC SSTs lately? PDO rose quite a bit in the last couple of weeks. that's also a ton of warm water off the WC

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

For the I-95 corridor from DC to Boston this has been the lowest 7 year snowfall stretch ending in 2025 that these areas have ever seen. The main difference between this one and past snow droughts has been this time it has been warmth holding back the snowfall.

Past 7 year stretches with much lower snowfall were mostly the result of drier patterns since they occurred back in much colder climate eras relative to the last decade. This time we have been getting warm storm tracks too far north and warm winter background patterns. 

NYC and Boston just surpassed the 1986 to 1992 snow droughts That era was much colder than the current 2019 to 2025 period. Plus we got the historic 1993-1994 and 1995-1996 seasons ending the snow drought. Our climate has warmed significantly since then making a repeat of those two historic winters unlikely. 

So it’s going to take an historic volcanic eruption not seen in hundreds or thousands of years in order to cool the climate enough for maybe 2-7 years before the effects wear off and the warmth rebounds. Unfortunately, we don’t have the current technology to make a reliable long range volcanic eruption forecast.

So my long range out look outlook from DC to Boston contains several scenarios. The scenarios aren’t necessarily listed in order of probability. Just what each scenario would entail.

#1….Lower snowfall regime continues similar to the last 7 seasons through the remainder of the 2020s.

#2…Small bounce off 7 year lows through the remainder of the 2020s with slightly higher snowfall during one of more of the next 5 seasons. 

#3 …historic volcanic event not seen since early 1800s or even before that era dramatically cools the planet for 3 to perhaps 7 years before temperatures resume rise again. This scenario has very low predictability. And could lead to much colder and perhaps snowier winters for a time.

Boston to DC record low snowfall last 7 season average from 2018-2019 to 2024-2025 and previous record 7 year lows

Boston…2025…26.6”…….1992….29.9”

NYC…….2025….14.9”…….1992…..16.3”

Philly…...2025….10.5”…….1933…..12.5”

DC…….…2025….8.5”…….1995…..10.1”

 

 

 

 

so you think that we're going to need a major volcanic eruption to see a 50"+ snowfall winter in NYC? I find that hard to believe given how much more moisture is available when cold air is around. seems like a bit of a stretch

3 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Agreed, but the reversion is rather extreme. I mean c'mon:

2021-2022: 17.9"

2022-2023: 2.3"

2023-2024: 7.5"

2024-2025: 12.9 " (despite the sustained cold).

That streak is more anomalous in my opinion than the snowy 2010s pattern.

is it really? we had four 50"+ winters out of six from 2009-10 to 2014-15. it was ridiculous

we also had similarly crappy stretches in the 70s-90s, we just had a lot more 10-15" winters than the single digit ones (not all that much better IMO)

1 hour ago, anthonymm said:

We always find ways to avoid getting snowstorms in the 2020s. It's like nature is overcorrecting massively for the snowy 2000s-2010s. I really think no matter what kinda 500 mb pattern we get we aren't gonna get a >30" winter for the next few years.

i earnestly believe that some of what's been occurring for the last few years is regression to the mean

that 20 year stretch was insane... NYC averaged 34" of snow from 2002-03 to 2020-21. that was not going to last

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

QBO is not unfavorable this year and La Niña is still going to be weak. This seems like splitting hairs to me...and believe me, I want a repeat of last winter like a hole in the head.

although I didn't like the results, I would run the 500mb pattern back in a heartbeat. that winter was a clinic on how to get the least amount of snow with favorable 500mb patterns

45 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m not disagreeing with the 500mb +AO/+NAO, however, there are many big differences I see, namely last year’s Nina didn’t get going this early, it was a late-bloomer event, we didn’t have a strong -IOD and the AAM was the complete opposite. We had the very strong Nino like +AAM right into November, this year, deep -AAM. The PMM is and has been very negative this year, was not negative at this time last year. The North Atlantic didn’t have the south of Greenland to Davis Straight cold pool last year. Also, the marine heatwave around Japan in the NW PAC was getting bombarded with recurving tropical cyclones and extratropical storms coming off the coast, which was upwelling and cooling the SSTS in that area, not the case this year, in fact SSTS are 11 degrees F above normal in that area currently. Further, the QBO has flipped 

looking at RONI, the MJJ this year is -0.4 and last year it was -0.45. i also don't take the N ATL SSTs into account all that much, I find correlations with our weather pretty weak. even though the heatwave near Japan is stronger, the SSTs off the WC are also higher, so the PDO is about the same. if anything, it was more consistently under -3 last year

overall, I think there are a lot of big picture similarities. I don't like to get too granular with LR forecasting

10 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

I know several consider last winter to be a top analog, but there really has been a lot of change in the SSTA pattern in just about every basin. The observed pattern also feels very different. We had a high of just 70 F today in Tulsa for the 5th coldest on record, which is on top of a cool and extremely wet summer...very different from last year at least at this juncture. 

looking at the 500mb patterns over the last two summers, last year is a good match... had the same +NAO/+AO as well as the dual ridges over the western and eastern US. last year is also a good PDO, solar, and overall ENSO match as well. I think it holds a good bit of weight

I'm a fan of the EP Nina look showing up. most seasonals keep the EP Nina into the winter, which would bode well for EC cold/snow prospects overall

2 hours ago, anthonymm said:

So 25-26 is dead in the water. Nice. Crazy the snow dropoff that has occured since 19-20. Really only one good winter since then, or really only one good month (Feb 2021).

i wouldn't say that considering that -EPO and some +PNA is favored. definitely doesn't look like a disaster

this is what i'm thinking for the winter pattern this year when looking at preliminary analogs. overall, I think we'll be looking at a winter with lots of ridging over the WC (or least nearby), likely pushing poleward into AK and north of Siberia, promoting -EPO and +PNA. this will displace the TPV SE at times, and although a SE ridge likely shows in the mean, it's likely suppressed for a decent portion of the winter

Dec can feature some blocking, aided by the -QBO. I think the blocking certainly eases by Feb, but even then, the propensity for +PNA/-EPO should prevent a full on torch in the East. Jan is likely more +PNA driven, becoming warmer late in the month

my main reasoning is that we're going to enter into a cool neutral ENSO state (weak Nina per RONI), and it's increasingly likely that the Nina influence will be more east-based, allowing for more ridging into the WC and AK rather than a flat ridge over the NPAC. we're also looking at high solar, a -QBO, and a -PDO

overall, my top analogs are 2024-25, 2021-22, 2001-02, and 1989-90 (I don't think we'll see an AK vortex like 2001-02, but it scored well with ENSO, PDO, and solar). I think the best analog for this winter is last winter, as the ENSO, PDO, solar, and similarities to last summer's pattern are hard to ignore

temps are slightly AN in the east with solidly BN precip (though it shouldn't be quite as dry as last winter)

19 hours ago, hosj III said:

the coastal plain is never "due" for a blizzard. especially under the new climate paradigm

 

with variance due to climate change, I would argue that the large storms that do occur, even with lower frequency, would be bigger than the ones that we've classically seen. 2016 wouldn't have been quite as impactful 30 years ago

5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

It’s not rotten luck. The Pacific Jet oriented in a way and strength that systematically destroyed our chances especially south of I-90 to PHL. Historically when it’s been cold enough in NYC it’s found a way to snow because there would be a PNA ridge that would stick around long enough or NAO blocking to slow the pattern down. Now the Pacific Jet knocks it all down like bowling pins and storms either can’t amplify in time or amplify too much. 

I suppose you can say that the Pacific jet helped the for parts of the MA and South then, which saw snowfall far above normal last winter

4 hours ago, anthonymm said:

So is 22-23 a good analog year? If so coastal mid atl-sne is screwed.

it isn't. last year is actually the best analog that i've found

although the PDO is exceedingly negative right now and must be accounted for in winter forecasts, I wouldn't lose tooooo much sleep over it given the anticipated -EPO pattern, especially in Dec/Jan. we could very easily see behavior similar to last year where it ended up closer to neutral as the winter went on... we're likely going to see a bounce upwards with the way SSTs are behaving right now

ECMWF seasonal is pretty close to what myself and some others are thinking... pretty solid tendency for -EPO early on with the TPV likely displaced into SE Canada at times. also a bit of a signal for blocking early on, too? wouldn't be shocking with the -QBO

sure, it likely ends up 1-2F AN, but nothing prohibitive, and there will be spells where the pattern is actually conducive for snowfall. i'll take it

from what i've seen, last winter looks like a really good analog for this one. when taking all relevant years into account, there should be a decent amount of poleward AK ridging with some blocking potential early on. however, Feb looks warm and should push the winter's temps AN

from what I noticed while forecasting last winter, it was pretty damn windy with all of the NW flow days... I'd imagine the reason why it felt much colder was because daytime highs were typically cold for those troughy patterns and you got much less of those radiational cooling nights that really tank temps, keeping minimums up

wouldn't be surprising if we had another -EPO dominant winter with intervals of blocking. still some -PNA, obviously. likely AN temps in the mean, but we'll probably have some colder intervals with blocking... overall, doesn't seem like too much of a deviation from last winter's vibe, which I would run back and see if the dice can roll a bit better

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CC probably did play a role in that, too....I am in agreement with the idea that it fosters greaters variability with the overall trend line pointed downward, but that doesn't mean that you have to go robocop on people to tie it to every missed opportunity for a snowstorm. There have always been misses and rough stretches during which the misses far outnumbered the hits.

there was a span of time where pretty much every KU pattern hit from like 2016 through 2021, and people got spoiled and thought that would continue... I am one of those people and have tried to remove that bias. it just happened so often that it was easy to assume that kind of loaded WB -NAO pattern would give a 75-90% hit rate - in reality it's much lower

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's been time for about 7 years   ... just imho -

CC is absolutely a factor, that is not a debate. snowfall is just so prone to variance and we came off of such a torrid stretch that I want to give it another 10 year span to make sure that this isn't just regression to the mean. it'll probably be 75% bust, 25% boom seasons from here on out with very little in the way of true average

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe it edged a bit east, but it never looked great.

agreed, that was always the main issue with that setup and made it a lot more precarious. if it had a true +PNA, easy KU. one could attribute that to CC, but we were never going to see perfect +PNAs with every setup. I think a lot of it is regression to the mean

i agree with you that if this is still happening in a decade, it's time to have a serious convo