brooklynwx99

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

There's a TONI and a RONI? No wonder a met degree is 4 years. You need that many just to remember the acronyms. 

TONI is just regular ONI (traditional), no idea why he calls it that lmao

so the CFS basically shoves the eastern Canadian ridge into the Davis Strait, lol 

it's an unprecedented super Nino but I'll believe that when I see it

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am speaking in the present....I agree there is a chance that this one can become a more prominent hemispheric driver, but we aren't there yet. This is all I meant on Sunday on when I Said El Nino still had work to do.

my thinking as of now is that the El Nino will take a foothold on the pattern as we head into autumn, but we will see. as you know, coupling is always pretty weak in the summer

31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Winter could average +10F with one super KU that dumps 3-4' in this climate. 

yeah, leaning on the 2015-16 or 1982-83 outcomes right now

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Jokes aside aren’t we staring down a likely east based strong to very strong El Niño? I take climatology in the fall but my base teleconnections knowledge say that it won’t snow much. 

my hunch is that there won't be much in terms of number of events but the boom potential always goes up in these years. HECS and nothing else is a distinct possibility

think 1982-83 and 2015-16 (which are both good analogs)

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree...it will also be well above in the mean because were aren't getting cold of that magnitude, nor as protracted later in the season. I am NOT trying to imply that this year will be like the colder basin-wide seasons like 2002 when I call it basin-wide.

1982-83 and 2015-16 are probably my favorite analogs as of now

31 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Does the difference matter at that temp? 97-98 could’ve easily produced a blizzard just like 15-16. Maybe just less cold shots. 

nah i mean we're likely looking at a warm winter for most anyway

28 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it would be less annoying if you people could be objective about it. you didn't even think this would reach super a few months ago

waiting until the spring barrier passes to make an ENSO forecast is pretty standard. I said a couple weeks ago that we are probably getting a super event and that a strong event was likely in early April. not sure what the issue is there

also, let's be real, the only reason why this thread gets 95% of the traffic it does is because of the impact on the following winter, which carries the largest correlation to ENSO, anyway. i doubt anybody cares about the SW monsoon (aside from Raindance) or eastern Pacific algal blooms

these events always begin very EP, that's nothing new. not much support on a persistent EP event... we should see things move basin-wide by the time winter rolls around. looks pretty 2015-16 esque in that regard, not 1997-98

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Okay, I stand corrected. Colder than I recalled.

there was also a major block that was poorly forecasted in February... one of the worst pattern busts I've ever seen. if that occurred, things would have turned out a whole lot differently that month

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Your point? All he did was post the model run

just messing. i agree that we're probably getting a super Nino this year

mario ramirez super nino

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It will also be interesting to see how the burgeoning warm ENSO interacts with the apparent north Pacific phase change, as we have clearly shifted to more of a -WPO base-state. If El Nino does grow as powerful as some suspect, it may be more like a 1982-1983 type of deal, where as the north Pacific was a bit more favorable.

if we go the super route, I actually like 1982-83 quite a bit

for the record, this should be a strong Nino per ONI and even RONI, but taking those +2.5C euro forecasts in early April to heart is silly. wait a couple of months and see if it sticks. the euro has overdone many a Nino in the past

gotta pass the spring barrier. this is like a 10 day EPS forecast but for ENSO at this point in the year

hey, give me a loaded STJ and temps that aren't an abject torch and I'd like to see what happens now that we're in a paradigm of blockier winters. 2023-24 was cursed and I think people are scared about an outcome like that. I find it unlikely, there are much better analogs

paul roundy super Nino part 2?

every model has the signal mid-month, worth watching for sure with the ridge rising out west. airmass is better than you'd think with the PV nearby

classic spring swing here

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This winter's been just morally repulsively enabling to CC deniers in this region of the world.  HAHA

the snow blitzes this winter are just as much a part of CC as the warm bursts IMO

incredible storm, about 13.5" here

9" and some of the heaviest snow i have ever seen

hang it in the Lourve. absolutely sick

really incredible stuff. the low is just getting started