brooklynwx99

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's a really bad model though. It might just be running with the likelihood of a scenario. 

it's the largest ensemble that's run on the consistently best performing model lmao

not sure if you can even draw it up better at this range. this is ridiculous

i get all the skepticism and pessimism, but how can this not get you excited? this is a perfect synoptic progression on the EPS. crazy

EPS looks amazing. what's the issue here? it even made positive changes compared to 00z

aleet aleet on the ECMWF

GFS and CMC ENS are maintaining the same high-end pattern progression around the 10th of March as the S/W over the WC ejects and the -NAO decays over N central Canada. there's even signs of ridging into the SW US

I expect the EPS to hold, but we'll see in an hour or so

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

does seem to get squished in later frame...234...compared to 6z

yeah, the 06z GEFS illustrates this well

7 minutes ago, LP08 said:

For whatever reason, this map looks wild to me.  The SER will not die.

it gets flattened on the ENS as the S/W in the west gets booted into the Plains. it will pop at first, though

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Just like how this wasn't a head fake? Always 10 days away

there was a significant snowstorm over NNJ, S NY, and CT today, so the blocking has produced for the NE US. sorry you guys got unlucky, can't nail down specific regions that are impacted 10 days out. sucks, but it is what it is when it comes to LR forecasting

be as pessimistic as you want for whatever reason you see fit, but don't shit on people that are posting in good faith because you're annoyed about the weather. that's petty

also, that post was saying talking about how the -NAO would occur, which it has in earnest. it was a good forecast in that regard... the two patterns are very similar aside from typical near-term magnifications

the post doesn't even mention any snowfall impacts. at least quote the whole post if you're going to bump troll, dude

it’s also worth noting that the GEFS made a big step towards the EPS/GEPS with regards to the strength of the blocking and the orientation of the 50/50 ULL

this is very encouraging, as it was a bit of a holdout yesterday at 12z. much more ENS agreement now

also, the AK blocking is forced by the strong MJO pulse into Phases 7/8 and the -NAO is forced by the SSWE. there is much more confidence in the HL blocking occurring due to the anomalous pattern drivers… this is not a head fake 

4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Different up top or larger SD features but the mid and low lats generally look the same...trof building on West Coast, ridge flexing near the GOM. I realize it is after this period ppl are honking on, but the progression is still 10 days+ away. I suppose the fact it's March and this pattern could work with smaller wavelengths has folks excited for at least a chance. I see the rationale. But realistically and based on track record we've been duped into believing these day 10+ epic potential pattern changes a few times this season. If we get to March 5 or so and the progression still looks favorable headed out past March 8 I cam begin to think this could be different. I hold out hope for mid month, but remain cautiously skeptical for now.

I mean, the retrogression of the -NAO to the Davis Strait occurs in a week, so that’s likely just going to happen at this point… the block in increasing in strength as well. also I don’t really see that much of a similarity to Dec, as the -PNA gets shunted due to much more favorable tropical forcing. much more of a true 50/50 dipole too

overall, the combination of the decaying, west-based -NAO, highly anomalous -EPO/-WPO, and deep, stalled 50/50 ULL makes this a better pattern than what we saw in December

you can even see the S/W eject from the W/C and get forced under the block on a 52 member mean at 10 days out! it’s an amazing signal. the GEFS and GEPS are also enthused… the GEFS made a big step to the EPS at 00z

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just spend like 3 hours the other day blogging about it. Check my outlook thread.

Additionally, odds are always strongly against rolling snake eyes twice in one season in a pattern like that.

this is some absolutely ridiculous shit. as loaded is it gets, no exaggeration. that is telegraphing a KU verbatim

holy shit

I think it’s becoming clear that even though the primary SLP likely tracks well inland, the confluence in place may still lead to wintry impacts, as shown on the GFS and CMC

I would also not be surprised if it continued to tick stronger given the blocking in place, similar to what happened with the ongoing system

the EPS (and GEPS to a lesser extent) is basically a perfect pattern progression. every synoptic feature is here for a major storm somewhere on the EC around the 10th:

• highly anomalous, decaying -NAO over the Davis Strait
• anomalous -EPO/-WPO to deliver Arctic air into the E US
• highly anomalous, semi-permanent 50/50 ULL
• signal for a vigorous S/W ejecting out of the Rockies as the PNA trends neutral... likely ending up slightly positive due to the Pacific Rex block

I want to see increased ENS support for this progression, mainly from the GEFS, but this is about as high-end of a pattern progression as you can get. compare this to the 7-day preloading composite for NYC's 18"+ storms... there are any of the same pattern features, namely the decaying west-based block and deep 50/50 ULL. this composite applies for you guys, as well. the same pattern is needed for NYC south to see its biggest storms

I don't mean to honk this early, but this is the best looking pattern progression since Feb 2021, which was the last classic MA blizzard (unfortunately scraped you guys to the N). many of the same features show up there, as well. it's not a coincidence

the EPS (and GEPS to a lesser extent) is basically a perfect pattern progression. every synoptic feature is here for a major storm somewhere on the EC around the 10th:

• highly anomalous, decaying -NAO over the Davis Strait
• anomalous -EPO/-WPO to deliver Arctic air into the E US
• highly anomalous, semi-permanent 50/50 ULL
• signal for a vigorous S/W ejecting out of the Rockies as the PNA trends neutral... likely ending up slightly positive due to the Pacific Rex block

I want to see increased ENS support for this progression, mainly from the GEFS, but this is about as high-end of a pattern progression as you can get. compare this to the 7-day preloading composite for NYC's 18"+ storms... there are any of the same pattern features, namely the decaying west-based block and deep 50/50 ULL. SNE also gets large storms with this kind of composite, but it is admittedly harder N of BOS

I don't mean to honk this early, but this is the best looking pattern progression since Feb 2021, which was the last blizzard spawning from this type of pattern. many of the same features show up there, as well. it's not a coincidence

the EPS (and GEPS to a lesser extent) is basically a perfect pattern progression. every synoptic feature is here for a major storm somewhere on the EC around the 10th:

• highly anomalous, decaying -NAO over the Davis Strait
• anomalous -EPO/-WPO to deliver Arctic air into the E US
• highly anomalous, semi-permanent 50/50 ULL
• signal for a vigorous S/W ejecting out of the Rockies as the PNA trends neutral... likely ending up slightly positive due to the Pacific Rex block

I want to see increased ENS support for this progression, mainly from the GEFS, but this is about as high-end of a pattern progression as you can get. compare this to the 7-day preloading composite for NYC's 18"+ storms... there are any of the same pattern features, namely the decaying west-based block and deep 50/50 ULL. this composite applies for you guys, as well. the same pattern is needed for NYC south to see its biggest storms

I don't mean to honk this early, but this is the best looking pattern progression since Feb 2021, which was the last classic MA blizzard (unfortunately scraped you guys to the N). many of the same features show up there, as well. it's not a coincidence

sorry for the LR OP run, but this is absolutely absurd 

ECMWF is literally showing a HECS setup and there are concerns voiced about the SE ridge. what in God's name

26 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This is real life.  Our winter is over.

see you next week. I highly doubt it

I understand the frustration tho

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The GEFS has the same pacific progression its just losing the blocking way faster and flipping the AO back positive.  So the question you have to ask is after such a SSW that did lead to a total wind reversal and subsequent obliteration of the SPV which then coupled with the TPV leading to blocking...do we believe the slower progression there of the EPS or the quick rebound of the GEFS.  

ETA: FWIW the GEPS is more in the EPS camp 

I would believe that the blocking wouldn't just evaporate into thin air like that after the SPV has been torn to shreds. it usually sticks around into April, even

here's to hoping the EPS is correct, because this is pretty much as good of a look you could have for a high-end storm

strong -EPO providing Arctic air, decaying west-based -NAO, stout semi-permanent 50/50, and a strong S/W ejecting out of the west and amplifying underneath the block

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The h5 look on the EPS is much better than the GEFS for that period.

 

here's to hoping the EPS is correct, because this is pretty much as good of a look you could have for a high-end storm

strong -EPO providing Arctic air, decaying west-based -NAO, stout semi-permanent 50/50, and a strong S/W ejecting out of the west and amplifying underneath the block

the UKMET is awful with thermals. I wouldn't pay too much attention to its accumulation forecasts in marginal situations. I'd expect 1 - 3" in the city