brooklynwx99

the major storm signal is still there… all that matters at this range. let’s see what the EPS does in a bit

ECMWF looks good so far

the GEFS has pretty much totally caved to the EPS/GEPS with its handling of the WC S/W. looks like next weekend is now a legit threat given that the models are kicking a shortwave under the block

this is probably the highest potential pattern since March 2018. there will be multiple opportunities for high-end threats

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I had no doubts eventually legit threats would come from this…I just didn’t feel like arguing about it. I let you do the dirty work. 

meteorological intuition won out. thank God lmao I was honestly getting a bit worried for a little while 

nice subtle shift here to provide more wave spacing with the 50/50

this is the most loaded pattern I have seen since 2016, probably. multiple opportunities for high-end threats

GEFS has finally come full circle to the EPS/GEPS. astounding

what in God’s name

MUCH more amped S/W diving into the Rockies on this run. there has been a total cave by the GEFS today. it’s not really a question at this point IMO. something will pop on many members this run

here’s the main thing IMO… look at the trend to have less and less interaction between the ULL in the Pacific and our S/W of interest, as well as the stronger blocking

this lack of interaction (now even a ridge on the 00z run today!) allows for the S/W to escape E rather than get sucked W. this is a huge development towards the more favorable foreign models

Just now, Ji said:

does digital blue really count on the cmc?

it’s better than the GFS, i’d say so

this could be someone’s new avatar

that is absurd lmao

the CMC does eject a stronger vort into the flow… this is really what does it

this doesn’t require any analysis. holy shit.

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Wacky evolution for sure. Probably won’t play out as depicted but hopefully moving closer to the right solution for us

yeah I think this continues to move towards the EPS/GEFS line of thinking. definitely not in the other direction

either way, the main thing will be how the ENS behave. this is such a cracked out and exotic pattern that the OP runs are going to vary wildly

we FINALLY have actual vorticity in the flow on the GFS. can’t believe the day is here 

Just now, pazzo83 said:

sorry brooklyn I should've posted a pic of the R train - but the enthusiasm is the same lol

fuck the R train LMAO

also my name is Kyle  

oh shit. it might actually send a legit vort into the blocked flow. differences from 18z are night and day

wow. this is way different. game on if that southern piece gets booted east

Just now, cbmclean said:

All I need to know is: is @psuhoffman still in?

And by the way as a SE weenie, I am living vicariously through you guys.  Bring this SSW March Miracle to fruition.  I will be enjoying my cold rain, as a sacrificial lamb.

I wouldn’t be so sure with the suppressive pattern. this is probably as good of a pattern as possible for you guys to get late season snow

GFS looks like it’ll eject a healthier vort. block is stronger too

haha i am living in Morristown 95% of the time tho. grew up in Brooklyn and moved out to the burbs for work 

anyway, hopefully we keep the momentum going. the whole MA needs it (yes, including NYC haha)

25 minutes ago, Wxtrix said:

i appreciate the time you spend trying to educate us even if i don't post in this thread a lot. I can read a wx model--your posts teach me how to do more than that. 

thank you! posters from way back when helped me do the same when I was a kid 

so i try and help others gain the same insights that I did! they’re fascinating. and trust me, I learn every day both at my job and even here

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

Bad sign? No posts about 18z eps?

it’s pretty much the same. not really worth posting about