brooklynwx99

as a result of that tiny change in the strength of the Pacific jet, the GFS is much less amplified out west

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Thanks. What’s the ensemble sensitivity based on? Is it the placement of the block?

it seems to be how zonal the Pacific jet is. the GFS is trending towards a more zonal Pacific jet, which helps boot the S/W out of the west instead of letting it dig. this is key to getting a coastal storm here

the trend is continuing on the 12z GFS... look at the E PAC ridge weakening and the increase in interaction between the S/W and ULL over the Pacific. look off of the CA coast

not all events are the same. the GFS is clearly the outlier and will be treated as such

1 minute ago, Dabuckeyes said:

ICON looks to be flattening out compared to previous runs

yup, pretty much zonal out west now

10 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

6z GFS plowing this thing up into Minnesota and trying for a handoff over Michigan LOL. Basically Cuts to frontal passage. Looked as if it was starting to cave 0z last night, but doubles down this morning on burying it 

nah, it was improved. not much change in sensible weather, but it was a step in the right direction

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

6z gefs was a disaster compared to 00z

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they were pretty similar

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

What is gfs doing?

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trending

the progression on the EPS is quite similar to that of Feb 2021 with the vigorous S/W getting forced underneath the block. it's not very far off. what a shift here

just keep in mind that this is not the end solution at all... but the overall synoptics might not be failing us as we previously thought. gotta trust the pattern to produce

it's clear that the relationship between the Pacific jet and S/W is extremely delicate and OP runs won't really show us much when the setup is this chaotic. the Pacific jet has also been undermodeled all year, which actually works in our favor this time. just wait for the EPS

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GEFS is a fairly classic Miller B sig. Hopefully by this time tomorrow we still have something. 

yup, great shifts on both ENS so far at 12z. probably has to do with the faster Pacific jet allowing the S/W to scoot E without amplifying so much

GEPS is also vastly improved. great 12z ENS runs so far

looking like a redevelopment/Miller B type event here with a dying primary in the OH Valley and baggy isobars off OBX

GEFS is night and day. love seeing the trough link up with the confluence as well. block is farther N, leading to a lower chance of linking with the height rises ahead of the trough

great run. this is a major step in the right direction

GEFS is night and day. love seeing the trough link up with the confluence as well. block is farther N, leading to a lower chance of linking with the height rises ahead of the trough

great run. this is a major step in the right direction

wow. GEFS is much, much improved due to the more zonal Pacific jet

GEFS is way less amped

23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GFS is slightly improved. notice the lower heights out in the E Pac at the same latitude of the trough on the WC and higher heights towards AK

this is a shift towards more Pac jet interaction and the ECMWF solution 

same on CMC

CMC made the same improvements with the Pacific jet and poleward ridging into AK. should be better this run

i know we didn’t get what we wanted out of it, but these are noticeable shifts in the right direction

lower heights over the E Pac, higher heights over AK and a shallower trough. all good stuff

GFS is slightly improved. notice the lower heights out in the E Pac at the same latitude of the trough on the WC and higher heights towards AK

this is a shift towards more Pac jet interaction and the ECMWF solution 

GFS is slightly improved. notice the lower heights out in the E Pac at the same latitude of the trough on the WC and higher heights towards AK

this is a shift towards more Pac jet interaction and the ECMWF solution 

06z EPS made another shift towards knocking down the WC ridge due to a more zonal Pacific jet… the incoming S/W is weaker as a result

big improvement on the EPS

yup, the ECMWF had a stronger Pacific jet that led to the S/W getting booted out under the block faster… the EPS is following with that idea