brooklynwx99

the progression on the EPS is quite similar to that of Feb 2021 with the vigorous S/W getting forced underneath the block. it's not very far off. what a shift here

just keep in mind that this is not the end solution at all... but the overall synoptics might not be failing us as we previously thought. gotta trust the pattern to produce

it's clear that the relationship between the Pacific jet and S/W is extremely delicate and OP runs won't really show us much when the setup is this chaotic. the Pacific jet has also been undermodeled all year, which actually works in our favor this time. just wait for the EPS

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GEFS is a fairly classic Miller B sig. Hopefully by this time tomorrow we still have something. 

yup, great shifts on both ENS so far at 12z. probably has to do with the faster Pacific jet allowing the S/W to scoot E without amplifying so much

GEPS is also vastly improved. great 12z ENS runs so far

looking like a redevelopment/Miller B type event here with a dying primary in the OH Valley and baggy isobars off OBX

GEFS is night and day. love seeing the trough link up with the confluence as well. block is farther N, leading to a lower chance of linking with the height rises ahead of the trough

great run. this is a major step in the right direction

GEFS is night and day. love seeing the trough link up with the confluence as well. block is farther N, leading to a lower chance of linking with the height rises ahead of the trough

great run. this is a major step in the right direction

wow. GEFS is much, much improved due to the more zonal Pacific jet

GEFS is way less amped

23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GFS is slightly improved. notice the lower heights out in the E Pac at the same latitude of the trough on the WC and higher heights towards AK

this is a shift towards more Pac jet interaction and the ECMWF solution 

same on CMC

CMC made the same improvements with the Pacific jet and poleward ridging into AK. should be better this run

i know we didn’t get what we wanted out of it, but these are noticeable shifts in the right direction

lower heights over the E Pac, higher heights over AK and a shallower trough. all good stuff

GFS is slightly improved. notice the lower heights out in the E Pac at the same latitude of the trough on the WC and higher heights towards AK

this is a shift towards more Pac jet interaction and the ECMWF solution 

GFS is slightly improved. notice the lower heights out in the E Pac at the same latitude of the trough on the WC and higher heights towards AK

this is a shift towards more Pac jet interaction and the ECMWF solution 

06z EPS made another shift towards knocking down the WC ridge due to a more zonal Pacific jet… the incoming S/W is weaker as a result

big improvement on the EPS

yup, the ECMWF had a stronger Pacific jet that led to the S/W getting booted out under the block faster… the EPS is following with that idea 

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

I’d honestly laugh if the EPS trended the opposite way

nope. the 00z EPS has a much more zonally oriented Pacific jet… this should lead to the same positive changes that we saw on the OP

it’s really coming down to seeing how much of an impact the Pacific jet can have on the S/W

more of an impact and you flatten the +PNA, kick the S/W under the block, and you get this kind of solution. and if less, well…

the worst thing is that models are HORRIBLE with that kind of stuff. good luck getting that resolved

this was not what I was expecting, to say the least. wow

this is actually really close to a big solution with the confluence parked over the NE US… the block overhead should force this east

i know we haven’t seen exactly what we’ve wanted today, but this run just shows how extremely touchy everything is out west and how prone it all is to change. it’s not an aphorism that things will change… it’s almost a certainty with this amplified and as finicky of a setup as this one

ECMWF is actually much improved… the stronger Pacific jet might allow for the S/W to roll under the block

changes in the E Pac are significant

3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Think you posted this in one form or another this year at least 10 times.  What’s your seasonal snowfall total this year?

what in that post was incorrect? tell me. give me details 

also, I only post about good stuff because it’s already suffocating when people are posting 10 times about a dogshit solution… I don’t feel like it’s needed to pile on unless there’s incorrect analysis or anything like that

there’s nothing wrong with being an optimist. there’s already enough pessimistic viewpoints