brooklynwx99

26 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This is real life.  Our winter is over.

see you next week. I highly doubt it

I understand the frustration tho

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The GEFS has the same pacific progression its just losing the blocking way faster and flipping the AO back positive.  So the question you have to ask is after such a SSW that did lead to a total wind reversal and subsequent obliteration of the SPV which then coupled with the TPV leading to blocking...do we believe the slower progression there of the EPS or the quick rebound of the GEFS.  

ETA: FWIW the GEPS is more in the EPS camp 

I would believe that the blocking wouldn't just evaporate into thin air like that after the SPV has been torn to shreds. it usually sticks around into April, even

here's to hoping the EPS is correct, because this is pretty much as good of a look you could have for a high-end storm

strong -EPO providing Arctic air, decaying west-based -NAO, stout semi-permanent 50/50, and a strong S/W ejecting out of the west and amplifying underneath the block

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The h5 look on the EPS is much better than the GEFS for that period.

 

here's to hoping the EPS is correct, because this is pretty much as good of a look you could have for a high-end storm

strong -EPO providing Arctic air, decaying west-based -NAO, stout semi-permanent 50/50, and a strong S/W ejecting out of the west and amplifying underneath the block

the UKMET is awful with thermals. I wouldn't pay too much attention to its accumulation forecasts in marginal situations. I'd expect 1 - 3" in the city

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

7 more degrees to go!

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better than nothing

UKMET made a really nice change with the confluence in SE Canada. probably the most important takeaway from this run

GEFS is improved. weaker vort, but the main change is in the confluence, which is notably stronger and further S over SE Canada 

leads to a colder tick. not amazing, but it's something

yeah, I liked seeing the initial confluence tick stronger, that's big in this kind of setup

GEFS should improve... weaker vort and slightly better confluence

holy crap

I'm inclined to believe the GFS is in outer space, but let's wait for the ECMWF

crusher

CMC is actually stronger with the confluence. looks like the GFS is on an island so far

CMC is more like the ICON than the GFS so far

the biggest difference between the ICON and GFS is that the ICON breaks a piece of vorticity from the trough and sends it east while the GFS phases it into the trough. which one is correct? who the hell knows, but they are both possible at this point

25 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Z icon is SE, TBlizz back in the game. Strong confluence, whiffs SNE. 

actually became a lot stronger with the confluence. the GFS probably won't care though and end up cutting to Chicago lmao

much more confluence. it's the most important thing in this setup, and models are going to have fits with it, as per usual. might be one of the hardest things to forecast at range due to the proximity of the TPV

this looks great with the potent 500mb low running into strong confluence. would result in heavy precip

nice. big shift south here. hopefully this starts 00z off right

ICON looks like it'll be colder. weaker vort and significantly lower heights downstream due to more confluence

3 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Didn't realize we were at verification time with either system.

you would think we'd learn after the medium range debacle for the Monday storm

doesn't look as good today, but I would not be surprised to see confluence increase again with the blocking finally in place. either way, even with the crappier solutions, a front-end thump is still possible, similar to what the 12z ECMWF OP showed earlier

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Let me ask ya something...why the frickle does it take 30 years every time?

PDO stands for Pacific Decadal Oscillation

I wouldn’t consider a threat dead at 5 days out. no need. models often do a horrible job with handling confluence 

I would agree that it’s not looking good, though, but Boston had 12-18” 4 days out for Monday and they’re getting like 2-4” now

GFS is a step in the right direction though. lower heights in SE Canada and a weaker vort 

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Not much help for us, but yeah...I did notice that early on

hey, anything is something. stopping the bleeding at least