brooklynwx99

as expected, snowfall is farther SE. this is an absolute monster signal for this range

colder and farther S as a result of those changes. this is the second GEFS run in a row to make this shift 

GEFS is more favorable than 12z… lower heights in SE Canada and a slightly less amped S/W

24 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Insane post coming from you, like mind blowing

I have said nothing even close to resembling that. not even close to the same thing

there's a difference between comparing a potential pattern to one that has produced KUs in the past with like 10 different caveats applied and whatever that post was to start the thread. they aren't comparable

EPS is really nice. stronger S/W but also more confluence, leads to a colder, stronger storm

that's why you just don't say things like that more than 48 - 72 hours unless you have a pristine synoptic setup

I am really not one to bump stuff, but omfg

the GEFS also has a legit KU pattern once towards the 10th but we can put that on the backburner for now

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Which model is better in your opinion at handling the upper features at this range which is causing the output we see?  Would you put more stock in the GEPS EPS or GEFS?  Thanks for your optimism.  

it's really tough to say at this point in time. I'm leaning towards the GEPS/EPS only because they have more confluence, which is what you'd expect with a developing block. this isn't really relevant to you guys, but this has been happening with the Monday system... confluence has been steadily increasing over the last day or so, which is leading to a farther S track

not to say that this will happen here, but I would lean towards that rather than a complete lack of confluence

wow

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You don't want that ++EPO. The cold air will get cutoff. 

there's enough cold air if the SLP runs to the south with all of that confluence over SE Canada

this is what you want. stout S/W over Ark-La-Tex with lots of confluence over SE Canada 

just a massive signal for a storm of some sort on the 4th

definitely better. not great, but a big improvement. definitely more similar to 00z than 06z

improvement on the GEFS... lower heights out ahead of the trough and in SE Canada. should be colder

I would consider this a general improvement to the height field over SE Canada. OP runs gonna OP run

this cuts because the GFS phases with the NS vort in MN/IA. if that vort kicks ahead and interacts with the ULL in SE Canada, this would be much farther S. really no way to tell with that kind of stuff at this range

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looking ahead to Chuck's window/our Hail Mary period, pretty nice h5 look on the EPS. Anomalously cold too.

yeah, climo won't matter as much when you have cross-polar flow like that. you can snow until the 20th to the coast with that look. the 10-20th period does look very good, but we'll see if we can cash in on the 4th beforehand. tons of time to go

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEFS is stronger with the NW low and lost all of the S and E clustering. Strong signal again for a low to the N and W...at least of the major cities in our regions. Damn this model is stubborn asf. When it gets an idea it really holds onto it.

seems to me like it's being inconsistent. it flip-flopped between 18, 00, and 06z. doesn't inspire much confidence, IMO

I can guarantee if the OP is less amped at 12z it will follow lock-step. it's not a good ensemble for illustrating spread. the EPS is easily the best for that. not to say that it's wrong or anything... we can get an inland runner, but it's just been making big shifts on a whim

luckily the GEFS is underdispersive, so it'll follow the OP nine times out of 10. not surprising that it's quite rainy

I'll take this at 8 days out. very dynamic solution with hints of confluence and there's cold air around

LMAO

Just now, BristowWx said:

Yes the only constant is a storm in the eastern US in 8 days.  That keeps shifting north on every op run.  Worth watching.  

I wouldn't say that... the ECMWF is suppressed

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

snowfall mean definitely better than 0z... but temps are not good.

the thing with ensemble mean temps is that much of the members that show snow will probably be between 28 - 34, but the ones that cut and show rain can be like 50 - 60 degrees, so temps are prone to being skewed high. the 500mb and track of the SLPs looked great, though

this is pretty nice for the 4th. the initial wave establishes some confluence over the NE so that it's harder for the main wave to cut

main wave tracks underneath. should look good snowfall wise and temp wise. absolute ton of moisture with this thing as well