brooklynwx99

pretty clear trend here since 18z yesterday. weaker primary and a much quicker transfer. also note the increasing pressure N of ME

even better. holy crap. a touch more confluence and a stronger, farther S shortwave

Just now, dmillz25 said:

Boxing Day was a B right? Jan 27 2011 was an A?

nah BDB was definitely an A. came right up from the GoM. luckily it occluded right over us

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mean, it’s 5 days out on the 00z runs tonight (at least the onset). I don’t see how we don’t get this inside of 5 days. 
 

The main shortwave responsible for this is already onshore (at least partially) over the Pacific Northwest so we don’t have any major data assimilation issues for that part of it. I really think the two main factors are going to be the block (which has been slowly ticking stronger) and that second shortwave that tries to phase on the euro (doesn’t quite get there on GFS). 

yeah, it hinges on the block, IMO. if that trends weaker, the positive shifts today completely reverse as it'll speed up the flow and lead to a less amped and warmer solution. if it trends stronger, the system slows and ticks S, putting a SNE-HV-NYC bomb on the table

in terms of the second piece, I think we want to see that half-assed Plains ridging tick up in strength. if it does, there's a greater chance that the second piece dives in, phases, and bring the potential through the roof. the ECMWF seemed increase the strength of it at 12z

also, the off-hour EPS runs are in range, which is huge. those are a real blessing

the GEFS is much more favorable... pretty big shift to the EPS with a lot more confluence. increases the snow mean by a ton as a result

this is easily the best threat the NYC metro has had all winter. beats late December by a mile

this is easily the best threat for CNE/SNE towards NYC that we've had all winter. not close

hopefully we can hold until it's within 4-5 days

holy shit GEFS

FWIW i do think this is thread worthy. but why does it have to be prefaced like that

GEFS has much more confluence than 12z and a more amped S/W. the GEFS usually follows the GFS at this range, but i’ll take it. it’s a good shift

dude.

futility 

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not that great for WCT into NYC verbatim but we’ll figure that out later. Just nice to see euro leading the way…for now. Good signal and it’s real.

one more shift like this and NYC-BOS is hammered. the block is slowing down and amplifying the flow

everyone is going to win here. wow wow wow.

this is a definitive shift towards the ECMWF. stronger block forcing more confluence. S/W is more amped as well. all things we want to see

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

or 2016.....

not to get off topic, but I actually rank 2016 as a good to great winter. can't be a bad winter when you have a record-breaking blizzard IMO. just doesn't make sense to me

but also, we don't really have snowpack or anything like that in NYC, so it's more of a bonus than anything... the lack of other snow doesn't bother me there

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Any reason why the GFS solution is being discounted. Seems equally likely to verify 

because it's the least skillful and it has a noticeable progressive bias with coastals

I don't think anyone is discounting it, it's just that the EPS is holding strong, we're getting to 5 days, and other models are moving towards it. the GFS can be put on the backburner in those situations

EPS made some good changes here

1. slightly stronger 50/50, which leads to the block nudging further W
2. slightly higher heights over the SW US - increases amplitude of the incoming S/W
3. then there's also a stronger and more E lobe of vorticity N of MT that increases phasing potential

the blossoming of riding in SE Canada north of the S/W is also indicative of a blocking regime... it can't gain latitude like that and is then forced to redevelop offshore. this is getting close to looking really damn good. give it a few more days

this kind of setup favors New England, but potent Miller B setups can still deliver significant snow to the NYC metro. there are a bunch of <990mb members

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Has my negativity been wrong? I have .4 of snow so far this winter! This pattern can work for Boston but not us. The tpv is going to the other side of the globe and the -pna is here to stay 

this type of setup can impact NYC to Boston. I would feel worse if I was in Philly, but many Miller Bs do heavily impact that axis. would be a bit silly to count the NYC metro out at this range

I feel like this is the straw that breaks the back of persistence

this is the feature that I'm referring to, btw, if it was unclear. this essentially prevents the S/W from gaining latitude and forces it to go offshore. this feature was more downstream of the S/W yesterday, causing it to gain latitude rather than where it is now

and look at those redevelopers as a result. sheesh. this is easily the best look that we've had at this range all year

yup, EPS made some good changes here

1. slightly stronger 50/50, which leads to the block nudging further W
2. slightly higher heights over the SW US - increases amplitude of the incoming S/W
3. then there's also a stronger and more E lobe of vorticity N of MT that increases phasing potential

the blossoming of riding in SE Canada north of the S/W is also indicative of a blocking regime... it can't gain latitude like that and is then forced to redevelop offshore. this is getting close to looking really damn good. give it a few more days

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This needs a "preliminary" awareness thread -

sorry, it does. 

I've seen enough - tell you what... I'll wait it out through the release of the 12z EPS mean... But the GEFs mean did trend, as did the GEPs....   This isn't just the Euro with 2 runs of consistency, it's consistency over top of a multi-sourced, multi-day -NAO situating up there is a climate friendly ( most importantly)  NON overly suppressive position.  

It's also inside D6 as it crossing into the OV and is very physically integrated into the determinants of the entire local hemisphere. These ICON this and GGEM that's are really not accidents. 

I agree. this has to do with the development of the -NAO and the semi-permanent confluence that it's forcing as a result. the synoptic evolution makes sense

I'm excited for the EPS

Just now, stormtracker said:

It doesn't

that's ok. I'll roll the dice with that setup. that 50/50 and -NAO is essential for a larger storm, so it's good to see that

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This fucking euro run.  

not even over yet. I mean holy shit, this synoptic setup is pretty great

a true -NAO with a massive 50/50 suppressing heights over the NE US. might cut verbatim, but that's what you want to see for a larger coastal

i do like this. huge 50/50 and -NAO dipole with a S/W coming out of the SW US. might not work verbatim, but there are some big pieces here