brooklynwx99

here’s the main thing IMO… look at the trend to have less and less interaction between the ULL in the Pacific and our S/W of interest, as well as the stronger blocking

this lack of interaction (now even a ridge on the 00z run today!) allows for the S/W to escape E rather than get sucked W. this is a huge development towards the more favorable foreign models

Just now, Ji said:

does digital blue really count on the cmc?

it’s better than the GFS, i’d say so

this could be someone’s new avatar

that is absurd lmao

the CMC does eject a stronger vort into the flow… this is really what does it

this doesn’t require any analysis. holy shit.

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Wacky evolution for sure. Probably won’t play out as depicted but hopefully moving closer to the right solution for us

yeah I think this continues to move towards the EPS/GEFS line of thinking. definitely not in the other direction

either way, the main thing will be how the ENS behave. this is such a cracked out and exotic pattern that the OP runs are going to vary wildly

we FINALLY have actual vorticity in the flow on the GFS. can’t believe the day is here 

Just now, pazzo83 said:

sorry brooklyn I should've posted a pic of the R train - but the enthusiasm is the same lol

fuck the R train LMAO

also my name is Kyle  

oh shit. it might actually send a legit vort into the blocked flow. differences from 18z are night and day

wow. this is way different. game on if that southern piece gets booted east

Just now, cbmclean said:

All I need to know is: is @psuhoffman still in?

And by the way as a SE weenie, I am living vicariously through you guys.  Bring this SSW March Miracle to fruition.  I will be enjoying my cold rain, as a sacrificial lamb.

I wouldn’t be so sure with the suppressive pattern. this is probably as good of a pattern as possible for you guys to get late season snow

GFS looks like it’ll eject a healthier vort. block is stronger too

haha i am living in Morristown 95% of the time tho. grew up in Brooklyn and moved out to the burbs for work 

anyway, hopefully we keep the momentum going. the whole MA needs it (yes, including NYC haha)

25 minutes ago, Wxtrix said:

i appreciate the time you spend trying to educate us even if i don't post in this thread a lot. I can read a wx model--your posts teach me how to do more than that. 

thank you! posters from way back when helped me do the same when I was a kid 

so i try and help others gain the same insights that I did! they’re fascinating. and trust me, I learn every day both at my job and even here

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

Bad sign? No posts about 18z eps?

it’s pretty much the same. not really worth posting about 

some people, like myself and a handful of others, find the way weather patterns evolve interesting and try and forecast them. and then try and determine threats and track them too 

7 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Bring it home brklynwx99

This is your storm!

haha trust me, myself and some others here have been tracking this threat window since the SSWE popped up on radar. this threat window is like a month in the making lmao

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You know damn well that even when a blizzard pops on the OP runs, which they will, you will weenie tag people for mentioning it lol. General pattern is NOT zzzz you are delusional. Could we get unlucky again...sure.

looks like the GEFS is finally caving towards the EPS/GEPS with its handling of the WC S/W

it now has a legitimate storm signal with multiple <980 SLPs that are suppressed. this is the ideal spot for the GEFS to be IMO. strong and suppressed. this is the first run that has had anything close to this kind of coastal signal

it's also worth noting that if there is a legit coastal, it will almost certainly be cold enough. there would be no concerns about precip type if you have a sub-1000mb low passing to your south

here we go. the GEFS has a legitimate storm signal with multiple <980 SLPs that are suppressed. this is the ideal spot for the GEFS to be IMO. strong and suppressed. this is the first run with anything even close to this kind of coastal signal

straight up cave. I'm becoming more and more confident that the EPS has the right idea with the overall evolution

definitely an improvement on the GEFS. should get more of the vorticity out of the west on this run. notice the increase in heights over S CA

Just now, Heisy said:

It does have some support though looking at Canadian and UKIE, JMA a bit too. I wouldn’t write off the GFS evolution yet. I’ve thought all along that our best shot will be at end of pattern change, more towards mid month or so. Either way I agree, we “should” get something out of this. Would just be nice to get some snow snow up on an OP run under 9-10 days soon lol. Patience is dried up honestly.


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the CMC's evolution does not agree with its own ensemble... the GEPS agrees with the EPS. as of right now, I am highly prioritizing the ENS due to the uncertainty of the pattern features

also the GFS does end up popping a big coastal at the end of the run. there will be lots of chances in this pattern. not one and done

12 minutes ago, Heisy said:

.

yeah, the GFS basically retrogrades the main vort into the ocean instead of shooting it east like the GEPS/EPS. it's so different from everything else that I still can't really believe its depiction yet

either way, it seems like it's keying in on the later timeframe between the 13-16th. either way, we will probably get something. don't see how we get out of this unscathed

idk. I feel like people are focusing more on the +50 meter anomaly dying SE ridge instead of the other highly anomalous pattern drivers that will make more of a difference

sure, there could be an unfavorable outcome, but it would not be due to that... suppression or a lack of a vort entirely is more likely to screw this

I don't even mean to be argumentative. I'm just kinda confused