brooklynwx99

GFS continues to compress the height field over SE Canada… leads to a crippling solution verbatim

this solution can’t be thrown out, as very cold air filtering into a wave of LP is similar to what happens in the Plains. this is an anomalous setup

the GFS being this cold is certainly a red flag. it often underdoes CAD, so I would imagine that it would be even colder at the surface if this synoptic setup verifies with a 1044 mb HP in an ideal spot for cold air drainage

scary stuff. let's see how this trends over the next couple of days

SN BLSN, down to 24. probably at 4-5" but the drifting makes any accurate measurements impossible

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What have you measured so far ?

I tried earlier, and it's not even really possible anymore. there's so much drifting

heavy, blowing snow in Bay Ridge. winds probably gusting up to 40 mph

absolutely dumping in Bay Ridge. very gusty winds as well

ripping here. tiny flakes, but quite windy and the flakes are coming down fast. some BLSN as well

radar looks immaculate. metro and E are in for a good night

wow… 700mb FGEN draped across the NJ coast into NYC

incoming!

what a joke

banding is headed into the metro, here we go

gorgeous 

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

What’s this mean 

frontogenesis is a tightening of a thermal gradient, which can help signal vertical motion, in this case, at 700mb. it's probably helping force the snow over there right now

700mb FGEN has developed over JFK-ACY-ILG

HRRR might be reeling it back in…

this is unreal

way more amped when everything was east at 18z

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The few cases we’ve seen in the last decade where this was modeled the end result was often in the middle where there was a secondary low but you didn’t see the massive pulling of the precip field with it 

exactly. if I was solely basing this off of the mid and upper levels, I would go 10-16" or even 12-18". PVA is aimed right at the metro, the 700mb closes S of LI, and the jet dynamics are nearly perfect

however, there's some weird stuff going on at the surface. I'm not discounting it at all, it could be right, but I just can't be confident in a depiction like that

this really all comes down to the consolidation of the trough and then the handling of the dual low. the first can be handled somewhat well by modeling, but the second is really a no-go. some models have to parameterize the convection, which leads to assumptions being made, and everything goes south very quickly

I really just think that we're just going to see how this one plays out over the next 24 hours. I have no more confidence than I did yesterday, if anything, even less

this is not to say that these changes will be for the better, they could be for the worse, too! we're just not going to have a good idea until we can see what the system is doing in real time

If I had to take a stab at it, I would say 8-14" for the metro, but this is low confidence and I can't even put much weight behind it

what do you even say to this? would be 3-4”/hr rates at 15F and 60 mph gusts 

this is absolutely unreal.

I am in shock. if the ECMWF even ticks west, the metro may actually have a legitimate shot of seeing major (12+) totals

I'm feeling good about this one. the trends are undeniable, and the GEFS/GFS finally caved in a big way. coupled with the nice shifts from the NAM/RGEM as well as the 12z EPS, I am becoming increasingly optimistic for a more high-end solution for the metro

as of now, I agree with Upton, around 6-10" looks good. but the potential for more is rearing its head a bit more now

NAM looks great so far. initial disturbance is much improved 

everything on the ECMWF is improved

the NAM is nothing like the 18z as expected, was just a hiccup earlier

both streams are more favorable