brooklynwx99

12 minutes ago, Heisy said:

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yeah, the GFS basically retrogrades the main vort into the ocean instead of shooting it east like the GEPS/EPS. it's so different from everything else that I still can't really believe its depiction yet

either way, it seems like it's keying in on the later timeframe between the 13-16th. either way, we will probably get something. don't see how we get out of this unscathed

idk. I feel like people are focusing more on the +50 meter anomaly dying SE ridge instead of the other highly anomalous pattern drivers that will make more of a difference

sure, there could be an unfavorable outcome, but it would not be due to that... suppression or a lack of a vort entirely is more likely to screw this

I don't even mean to be argumentative. I'm just kinda confused

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yea, but the lead isn’t. What we’re seeing is the pattern change and not necessarily a good storm threat because of the lead in. We’ll see what happens, we’re all rooting for the same thing.



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how? there's going to be mild height rises ahead of a trough like that, and there's a beastly 50/50 in place. not to mention the blocking

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

What does 204 look like? 

the whole evolution is wild. the S/W slides under the block and amplifies as the block decays. 50/50 in place. it's a great setup

lmao if this is the pattern projected by the best ENS at 8 days out and everyone wants to downplay it for whatever reason, then whatever, but it's a bit foolish to me. I personally don't understand it at all

Just now, Ji said:

sure it does--the GFS saw the March 4 event 8 days away and hardly wavered

that has absolutely nothing to do with this event

14 minutes ago, MANDA said:

None of the 51 members (or the OP) of the EPS are really excited (as of yet anyway) despite the impressive looking 500 mb. anomalies.  At least as of now none of them seem to be sniffing out anything noteworthy in terms of snow for THIS FORUM.  Control is off the rails for Central and Northern New England and upstate NY but nothing so far is suggestive of a KU type event or any event of note for that matter for our forum.  Control does have soaking 1-2" rain event here next weekend.

Not at all saying pattern is not interesting and does not need to be watched but as of now needs to trend better to deliver the goods this far south.

I personally don't care what the snowfall outputs are when the longwave pattern is this favorable. something big usually pops there, and it often favors BOS to DCA

compare this to the pattern one day before all of NYC's 18"+ storms. the pattern shown here and the composite are very similar. that's why it's exciting

20 minutes ago, Heisy said:

My point illustrated like a 6 year old….. we need better push from “X” to allow more spacing for “L” because of the ridge linkup leading into the event. 12z run yesterday did this. Todays eps favors snow in NE and lakes because of the spacing issue between X and L here… long way to change this and allow better amplification for backside low…




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I get what you mean, but I feel like you're missing the forest for the trees here. the longwave setup is almost perfect. will it produce? we can't say that yet, but this pattern gives us a much, much better shot than normal

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

I need to see blue--over my backyard. Not 500mb blue....not 2temp anomoly blue...not 850 anomoly blue---i need to see mutha fookin snow blue on the model map...over my yard. 

lmao it's like 8 days out. the ensembles are way more important than the OP

the OP is basically betting on one ENS member to give you snow. makes no sense at this range

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

I’ll be in the minority here and don’t want to get flamed, but I just don’t agree. It kind of looks like a smoothed out version of the OP. The lead up to that wave still has too much Ridge link up that’s why the lead wave on all the OP models and ensembles favors snow into the Midwest and lakes. The only hope is for a low to develop on the backside of that trough, a miller B. Looks like EPS does that but mostly favors NE. Not trying to be negative. We’re still far out I just think the devil is in the details here…


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I say this with all due respect, but I am not sure what else you'd want to look for on a Day 8 ENS output for major storm potential. it checks every box

I don't care about snowfall output when I see that high-end 500mb configuration. lots of members pop coastals, but of course there's going to be a lot of spread at this range when 52 members are involved

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

can we just go out with a bang and bring on spring? Seems like the NAO goes poof afterwards...

the bang usually occurs when the -NAO decays. that's why this signal is so compelling

I do think that the models are overdoing just how fast the NAO decays, though. we should see some semblance of it for much of the month, but this is the main event

EPS is absurd for next weekend 

there's pretty much everything here for a major storm

• vigorous S/W digging over the Plains
• decaying -NAO over north central Canada
• highly anomalous 50/50 ULL
• ridging building upstream

EPS is absurd for next weekend 

there's pretty much everything here for a major storm

• vigorous S/W digging over the Plains
• decaying -NAO over north central Canada
• highly anomalous 50/50 ULL
• ridging building upstream

Just now, mattie g said:

I think I speak for many when I say I don't quite know why we're calling on the Good Shepherd with this look.

there's pretty much everything here for a major storm

• vigorous S/W digging over the Plains
• decaying -NAO over north central Canada
• highly anomalous 50/50 ULL
• ridging building upstream

jesus christ

GEPS is gorgeous. -NAO decays, +PNA moves east, and the S/W amplifies with the 50/50 in place

GEPS looks absolutely mint

GEFS looks like it should eject more of the vort this run

high amplitude blocking patterns like this are absolute hell for modeling. I would just focus on the ensembles and really try not to place too much emphasis on OP runs. there are going to be so many wildly different solutions

either way, I find it hard to believe that an impactful storm won't pop from this at some point through the 15th, even if most OP runs don't see it now. this is a powder keg setup

Just now, stormtracker said:

Finally moving out at 198..it needs to dig tho

CMC looks similar to 00z so far anyway

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I dunno man.  Was just about to come type that it doesn't look like it want's to move that Western S/w out still

I think it's lost

3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Just curious about temp expectations if the favorable heights progression occurs. Looking at 3/13/22 for example here in Hillside and we were 35/21 on the day. Would expect we’d need to see temps move in that direction and start to adjust lower as we move forward? 

Just curious and asking, not suggesting an issue. 

would definitely be cold enough if we get a coastal SLP, not really worried about temps as of now

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Fuck it.  Your enthusiasm have made me put my chips back in.  Let's do it.

hey, based on what I’ve seen, the EPS/GEPS are on the right track and the GEFS is slowly caving. the GEFS made a bigggg move last night towards them

the EPS continues to improve, and the GEFS made a huge shift last night towards the EPS/GEPS with regards to booting the S/W out of the west. gets a lot more of the vort into the Plains. good ENS runs last night

06z EPS made some nice improvements. the S/W is a bit less held back, the block is stronger, and so is the 50/50… less downstream ridging and the 50/50 pokes more into the NE US