brooklynwx99

absurd height falls. my god

the taller PNA allows for the NS lobe to drop into the trough. leads to an earlier phase and way more cold air getting infused. beautiful run

that ridge spike is the cause of this, pretty much. so much colder

the taller PNA allows for the NS lobe to drop into the trough. leads to an earlier phase and way more cold air getting infused. beautiful run

ice cold under the CCB too. that's powder away from the immediate coast

UKMET closes S of LI. MECS verbatim

18 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

will 00Z GFS cave to EURO solution?

looks like another shift towards it to me. deeper NS, more favorable height orientation over the EC, trough is more buckled

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Put a side that it’s the icon, that track is possible.

GFS is continuing to move towards the ECMWF. whole trough is more amped

ICON, grain of salt

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This ICON reigns in the start of the 0Zs looking deeper with the N stream at 66 hr

yup. this looks explosive, if nothing else

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

18z euro vs 12z, make of it what you will.




.

NS a bit deeper, but SS probably would have kicked a bit farther SE as it’s not as wrapped up in the trough. looks good, would bomb again

Just now, dryslot said:

The GFS still has more upgrades needed to unseat the Euro, Its still bad with complex coastal systems.

yeah this kind of setup is the GFS’s real undoing. it’s still much too progressive with phasing scenarios

it’s doing its best

EPS is super similar to the OP

lmao seriously though, it would be impressive. but let's get the 500mb down first. long way to go

3 minutes ago, masonwoods said:

There hasn’t been any discussion about wind potential.  Thoughts?

windy

also, as silly as it sounds to mention, -1C is 30 degrees. makes a big difference if the lower levels are that cold. you're also getting adiabatic cooling. it would snow there, no question

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Anytime you get legit heavy rates, it's going to latently cool the sfc to near freezing. With those rates and height falls shown on the Euro, it's going to be heavy snow under the CCB even in low elevations.

If we end with with a system that produces only moderate rates, then the lower levels will definitely play a much larger role in preventing accumulations.

yup, March is go big or go home. nice to see the ECMWF and UKMET agree. that used to be a deadly combo at this range, but who even knows now

the EPS will be interesting. I'd like to see more of these show up

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Too warm for the coast.

nah, 925mb temps drop to -2 to -1 with a massive CCB overhead. would rip to the coast verbatim

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lower elevations would get crushed on the euro solution inside the meat of the CCB.

that kind of solution is where dynamic cooling would actually occur. 925mb temps are more useful here

that is one of the sickest 500mb evolutions i've ever seen. full capture and close E of LI

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sooo.. heh

12z's have either trended warmer, or a big waste of time ... take a pick?

sounds like March D6 forecasting, incarnate.  

 

and then there's this

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wish we could get that H5 bodily under LI, but that is too large of a correction, at this stage...IMO.

the UKMET actually manages to pull that off. absolutely sick 500mb evolution

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The primary needs to die faster

 

if most of SNE wants in on it, the ECMWF / UKMET solution with a quicker transfer needs to happen. GFS is too late

the EPS is pretty crazy. scanning over the individual members, the ones that do nuke the metro are the ones that end up stalling and looping ACK southward. these probably capture the soonest. keep an eye on members 4, 11, 15, 19, 20, 21, 30, 31, 33, 34, and 43... these all have a far S stall and deliver a MECS to the area

whether it happens or not is one thing, but there is certainly potential here