brooklynwx99

GEFS isn’t hanging the energy back nearly as much as 18z

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Because we hate the awful gfs run lol?

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because all of the legitimate improvements of said run were ignored for the result, which was meteorologically dubious anyway. retrograding blocks don’t just plow southward like that

some of you guys are absolutely ridiculous lmao

CMC looks very nice. vort goes right underneath the block. ends up dry verbatim, but this is the 500mb configuration you’d like to see. just a bit messy

the way the GFS handles the block afterwards is bizarre, though. retrograding blocks just don’t do that. i’ve seen a fair amount of them and i’ve never seen them do that before. i wouldn’t worry about it. it’s exotic, to say the least

either way, it’s trending towards the other models with the handling of the vort out west and the CMC has held serve so far

the CMC is also not going anywhere near the previous GFS solutions… looks great so far

vort isn’t hanging back as much into the Pac NW as much this run. bigggg change here

GFS looks improved so far

more poleward ridging into AK like the EPS/GEPS and the vort in the NW US is tilted more positively 

the “hot” and “cold” model stuff is just confirmation bias

it’s the equivalent of playing Call of Duty and saying “as soon as i stop looking around this corner and move somewhere else I die!” when in reality you don’t get shot most of the time. you only pick up on it when it does happen

it’s the same thing

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

I am being sincere.  When you compare the GFS ensemble hour 144 to EPS 144, please explain why you think they are that different.  I just don’t see it, I would like to understand.

i posted about it in detail a few minutes earlier

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Or maybe will know in 3 days

yup, all of this should be sorted by then. probably sooner

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Maybe biggest difference is separation of the troughs? Other than that it looks identical

that is the major feature that determines whether the vort gets booted east or not, that one difference makes all the difference. there is a piece of a ridge on the EPS where the GEFS has a trough in the E Pacific. it’s a big change

they also vary in how they deal with the AK ridging. EPS and GEPS are more poleward

idk if some of you guys are doing like some weird reverse psychology coping mechanism stuff saying that the GFS “won” or whatever, but it makes zero sense and it’s kind of annoying 

i get the cynicism, but come on

18 minutes ago, Heisy said:

This was possibly a trend towards GFS

Here is 18z control vs 12z… posting control because it generally follows the OP

Can see the difference in western energy and the EPS confirms it. Not saying it’s like GFS yet but a clear step. Onto 00z




.

I wouldn’t say so. the way that the vort behaves is still radically different 

the EPS still boots the vort relatively quickly. it’s about the same as 12z in that regard, you can see it moving east. the GEFS actually backs the core of the trough NW. they’re totally different still. wouldn’t say one moved towards the other

the EPS probably amped the trough up a bit more, which explains the W tick, but the way it behaves is the same as 12z due to the differing Pacific layouts

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

How are they much different at Day 6?

18z EPS only goes out to 144

EPS still looks nothing like the GEFS. all is well

15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

What am I missing here? The trend has been to bury that energy in the W and pump the SER, at least based on the trends you posted. Trying to link the stout NAO and building ridge. And yes, that is a ridge please stop saying it is just higher heights between longwaves. It's essentially the same thing?

it’s farther east and at least attempting to get it out of the west, that was the point there

also, I don’t think the adage of models being “hot” or “cold” has merit. past performance is not an indication of future success, and the GFS is far away from the consensus, so I have to lean against it

if some want to be pessimistic, i get it, but we just have to see things shake out

I'm only half kidding, I think this pattern broke the GFS. like what the actual F is this

the EPS and GEPS are in absolute lock step agreement with every major pattern feature and then you have the GEFS in left field picking its nose. idk. I can't believe it right now unless the EPS or GEPS make a big shift towards it

either way, one camp is going to cave soon. let's hope it's the GEFS

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Awesome, looks like GEFS went towards the OP, this winter…



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it almost always goes towards the OP, though. it's a bad ensemble

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You know I always run with the means at range. I'll also go with consensus. Doesn't always work lol.

this is also what I mean. it looks like the GFS is also just having a hard time with the pattern right now and it breaks everything down WAY too fast

like wtf is this? this doesn't even have any waves. just a bunch of smattered crap. compare that with the EPS control, which looks like actual weather

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I have become a believer in the Ji rule.

I'll put it this way. if the GFS/GEFS was the only model showing a favorable outcome and every other model had what the GFS has now, would you believe the favorable outcome? I absolutely would not. it's a game of odds and they're in our favor right now

these differences are occurring at like Day 5-6, so this will be resolved over the next couple of days anyway, regardless of the outcome

there is definitely a trend here to get the vort out faster, though, regardless of whatever weird way the GFS is thinking of doing it verbatim

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

We really need the Euro's superior resolution/computing power/diverse array of data assimilation, or whatever the fuck supposedly makes it better, to be right in this case. Not that the GFS is awful, but we don't have a lot of time here.

the relative consistency of the ECMWF / CMC also give me a bit more confidence that they have the right idea. the GFS has been a bit erratic with its handling of the NW US vort