brooklynwx99

14 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The late 90s also had a strong La Niña after the record Nino. Either very strong ENSO signal is usually bad for us. 

hey, the 2016 super Nino was a torch but had our biggest storm ever, so I'll take that any day

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

Also, what is it going to take to get a +PNA? That’s our culprit. Wave after wave for essentially 2 winters have just crashed into the west coast.


.check out the 6z GFS, the entire is just -PNA death

Ninas generally suck and we've had 5 in the last 7 years. they overwhelmingly force a -PNA. that's like 90% of it for me

she's not gonna let us out lmao

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Work for who?  It has actually been 5 anomalous -NAOs without producing much if any snow here since we had the last affective one in 2018.  I wrote about it back after the December fail that one of the reasons for our snow drought over the last 7 years is that blocking is not working at the same rate it used to.  It's still too small a sample though to say its more than just a random thing.  But combined with some other unsettling trends its worrying.  

the retrograding block in Feb 2021 produced a historic blizzard for NYC and surrounding areas. was just a bit too far north for most of you guys, but N MD still got significant snow

I'm very curious to see what a legit Nino will do. seems like the potential for a moderate Nino is increasing

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I thought the first ( back in Dec ) was more eastern limb ?   

Either way, this recent one was definitely retrograding, while waning. And fact of the matter is, we did have the moving parts in the deep layer mechanics come into line and climate. The N/stream tucked and subsumed a S/stream wave. Too many 20+" totals in the els to prove it. The devil was the BL lacked cold air and a baroclinic wall to provide a low level cyclogenic frame. Having antecedent sounding between BTV and ACK not appreciably differential prior to delivering those goodies... f'ed this thing up 10 ways from next Tuesday.  Just not for everyone - that's the tell. T

Which frankly... lacking cold is a part of a retrograde NAO that failed.  That is perhaps more the head scratch on this recent pass thru. 

So I guess based on that it doesn't matter. Lol... regardless of east or west or dogs or cats ... neither NAO correlated altogether very well.  

Boy the plague of lacking cold air. That is really what's been endemic to the whole season - and a circumstance that remained consistent right through both NAO episodes. They were unable to overcome that limitation and inject.  The first of the two back in Dec, yeah...I can see that if indeed it was E biased.  There's more of a dice roll with those...  But the recent one? Wow what a major butt bang considering it was even proceeded by a -EPO in the process of relaying into a +PNAP.  

yeah this is what really stumps me. there was a legit -EPO concomitant with the -NAO, so that should have provided cold air, but it didn't. what a weird year

we just didn't have the PV on our side of the globe when it mattered most... it was largely in Asia in December and so far in March. I don't think this level of ineffectualness will occur again though. give us another next winter in a Nino and I'm sure we'll get smoked

but hey the Rockies now are able to get their 1873rd blizzard of the year! good for them, the ski resorts must be struggling

the wave amplifying in the Pacific crushed the ridge in the SW US. what a surprise

two highly anomalous, retrograding -NAOs and nearly nothing to show. I have never seen anything like it... this winter has been an exercise in futility

both patterns produced very big storms, but the devil was in the details. what a cursed winter. if we get another one of these we're gonna cash in. no way 3 in a row can be this ineffectual

also, the -NAO is not overrated in terms of big storm potential... it is the main index that controls whether you can get a 12"+ storm or just a nickel/dime event due to the way it modulates the pattern over the N Atl

two highly anomalous, retrograding -NAOs and nearly nothing to show. I have never seen anything like it... this winter has been an exercise in futility

both patterns produced very big storms, but the devil was in the details. what a cursed winter. if we get another one of these we're gonna cash in. no way 3 in a row can be this ineffectual

also, the -NAO is not overrated in terms of big storm potential... it is the main index that controls whether you can get a 12"+ storm or just a nickel/dime event due to the way it modulates the pattern over the N Atl

two highly anomalous, retrograding -NAOs and nearly nothing to show outside of interior CNE/NNE. I have never seen anything like it... this winter has been an exercise in futility

GEFS looks wayyyyy better than the OP. amped southern stream wave with HP in a good spot over the Northeast 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Gefs better 

i like the ideally placed, strong HP. climo is obviously the issue here 

this is all that needs to be seen. carry on  

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The fun part of this storm is still 96 hours away.. still have plenty of time to trend in any direction. 

yeah this is so finicky with a delicate phasing setup like this. really difficult to see where this is going. you could make a case for the GFS or ECMWF. no way to know

3 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

12z trends are weaker trough off BC, leading to less PNA ridging, leading to wider swing later capture.

the PNA ridge on the ICON is stronger though? it’s the southern stream energy that’s a bit weaker

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

The ridge…right? 

yeah the increased ridging out west lets the northern stream vort dive into the trough, leading to an earlier, colder phase

3 minutes ago, kingbaus said:

Ok so it’s most likely the euro is overdoing temps with that set up.

yeah, 925mb is more useful and those temps are definitely cold enough

this is the difference maker. all by itself

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

 Once it's heavy rates temp should be near freezing.  I mean with cold from 925 on up it has to be while we're getting raked.

yup. 32-33 degree wet snow bomb

2 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

So how realistic are the Euro's snow maps? The surface temps (if correct) show Boston being above freezing  for awhile during the snowfall.

925mb is below freezing, it would absolutely rip verbatim. models are going to overdo sfc temps with that amount of lift

that increased PNA ridging is such a game changer. leads to an earlier phase and way more cold air to tap into 

UKMET did the same thing

absurd height falls. my god

the taller PNA allows for the NS lobe to drop into the trough. leads to an earlier phase and way more cold air getting infused. beautiful run

that ridge spike is the cause of this, pretty much. so much colder

the taller PNA allows for the NS lobe to drop into the trough. leads to an earlier phase and way more cold air getting infused. beautiful run