brooklynwx99

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The fun part of this storm is still 96 hours away.. still have plenty of time to trend in any direction. 

yeah this is so finicky with a delicate phasing setup like this. really difficult to see where this is going. you could make a case for the GFS or ECMWF. no way to know

3 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

12z trends are weaker trough off BC, leading to less PNA ridging, leading to wider swing later capture.

the PNA ridge on the ICON is stronger though? it’s the southern stream energy that’s a bit weaker

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

The ridge…right? 

yeah the increased ridging out west lets the northern stream vort dive into the trough, leading to an earlier, colder phase

3 minutes ago, kingbaus said:

Ok so it’s most likely the euro is overdoing temps with that set up.

yeah, 925mb is more useful and those temps are definitely cold enough

this is the difference maker. all by itself

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

 Once it's heavy rates temp should be near freezing.  I mean with cold from 925 on up it has to be while we're getting raked.

yup. 32-33 degree wet snow bomb

2 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

So how realistic are the Euro's snow maps? The surface temps (if correct) show Boston being above freezing  for awhile during the snowfall.

925mb is below freezing, it would absolutely rip verbatim. models are going to overdo sfc temps with that amount of lift

that increased PNA ridging is such a game changer. leads to an earlier phase and way more cold air to tap into 

UKMET did the same thing

absurd height falls. my god

the taller PNA allows for the NS lobe to drop into the trough. leads to an earlier phase and way more cold air getting infused. beautiful run

that ridge spike is the cause of this, pretty much. so much colder

the taller PNA allows for the NS lobe to drop into the trough. leads to an earlier phase and way more cold air getting infused. beautiful run

ice cold under the CCB too. that's powder away from the immediate coast

UKMET closes S of LI. MECS verbatim

18 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

will 00Z GFS cave to EURO solution?

looks like another shift towards it to me. deeper NS, more favorable height orientation over the EC, trough is more buckled

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Put a side that it’s the icon, that track is possible.

GFS is continuing to move towards the ECMWF. whole trough is more amped

ICON, grain of salt

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This ICON reigns in the start of the 0Zs looking deeper with the N stream at 66 hr

yup. this looks explosive, if nothing else

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

18z euro vs 12z, make of it what you will.




.

NS a bit deeper, but SS probably would have kicked a bit farther SE as it’s not as wrapped up in the trough. looks good, would bomb again

Just now, dryslot said:

The GFS still has more upgrades needed to unseat the Euro, Its still bad with complex coastal systems.

yeah this kind of setup is the GFS’s real undoing. it’s still much too progressive with phasing scenarios

it’s doing its best

EPS is super similar to the OP

lmao seriously though, it would be impressive. but let's get the 500mb down first. long way to go

3 minutes ago, masonwoods said:

There hasn’t been any discussion about wind potential.  Thoughts?

windy

also, as silly as it sounds to mention, -1C is 30 degrees. makes a big difference if the lower levels are that cold. you're also getting adiabatic cooling. it would snow there, no question