brooklynwx99

13 minutes ago, George001 said:

It’s not irrelevant, yes that’s warmer than other datasets but the weekly data has enso 3.4 at +1.2, that is still very impressive for this time of the year. The nino is on track to become strong by September, and super by November.

the forcing is going to be more important than the raw ONI... that seems to have become clear at this point. besides, the WPAC warm pool likely leads to a MEI that's significantly lower anyway. this is already evident

a 2.1C Nino might only act like a 1.7C Nino. there is a big difference. I think we'd need to get to 2016 levels for this to actually act like a super event

again, years like 1982 and 1972 still need to be considered at this point, but it seems like we're leaning towards a more favorable outcome than not. we're almost into September at this point. to deny that would be like seeing a near-unanimous blowtorch and saying "well, they could all be wrong and it could still be quite snowy!"

that person would be called a weenie, and rightfully so. not sure why when it's the other way around, everyone gets all skeptical

I would say if modeling still looks like this by the early October runs, years like 1986, 2002, and 2009 will be serious considerations. for now, they're just more years to think about until everything shakes out through the fall

also, if we're going to be completely honest with ourselves for a moment, which set of years does the C3S look like? the moderate to low-end strong years with Modoki-esque forcing, or the classical super Ninos?

not even trying to say which scenario is more likely to be correct, but I'm not sure how you can say it doesn't look more like the former than the latter

my assumption is that the farther west forcing is leading to a farther W Aleutian LP, which helps height anomalies out west remain more neutral than negative and increase blocking. blocking will be a key feature this year, and the -QBO and ascending solar activity close to a max leans towards more blocking than less

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think its going to be frigid. I agree with that, however, it depends where the forcing is in terms of the PNA because if its west of about 160W, then the GOA low is going to be further off of the west coast.

i mean, looking at 2010, one could envision the "flooding with Pacific air" that would occur... look at how far east that Aleutian low is. basically in the GoA. that obviously did not happen. blocking + split flow FTW!

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Region 3.4 is obviously going to warm a lot (very likely become super) over the next few months but IMO this event stays a classic Eastern Pacific/EP El Niño right into this winter. One of the big factors I think that prevented this one from evolving into a more Modoki or west-based event is and has been the very persistent -PMM. The -PMM has been strong and firmly entrenched since last fall and I believe is one of the main reasons why this event has remained so east-based. Had the PMM flipped positive I think the way this event would have developed and configured itself quite a bit differently

I don’t think we’re going to need this to become a classic west based event… basin wide will be fine for most intents and purposes 

i’m expecting a warm start, though 

that should lead to the trickling west of the greatest SST anomalies, leading to a more basin-wide Nino

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Great consensus. ONI can be 4.2 for all I care, if it looks like that. 

this is the super ensemble mean… sign me up

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the November runs show the exact same forcing then things will be interesting

I know, I really don't know what to think here. 95% of the time, a Nino that strong is a complete torch, but there are factors that we've never seen before

I'm like the opposite of last year... 65% optimistic and 35% pessimistic. we'll have a better idea once into the fall

I mean, for the sake of argument, the French model has the Nino peaking at like 2.5C and still has a very favorable EC pattern. I don't think it's a coincidence that the majority of seasonal models are showing this regardless of if the raw ONI gets above 2C... there is more at play here

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO the forcing moves east by December but that’s a wait and see obviously. And if I’m a betting man, the CANSIPS and UKMET show a super El Nino on the next updates like the Euro, JMA, POAMA already do. The CFS is also warming

the CanSIPS, JMA, ECMWF pretty much have one, but they still look favorable due to where they have the greatest forcing. the raw ONI isn't as useful as it usually is here

call these fantasy model projections all you want, but this is not what a typical super Nino looks like by any stretch. the WPAC warm pool is likely the reason for that... the MEI is likely closer to 1.3-1.7 and the forcing is likely dragged west as discussed ad nauseam by this point

the thing is that the raw SST anomalies have almost zero impact at this range

the forcing has remained far west, and this is going to become basin wide anyway. not sure what the EP circle jerk is about right now. it’s kinda pointless

BEASTLY EP NINO with a MEI of +0.3

give me a break

in terms of MEI, the new reading for JJ came out at +0.3

1997 had a MEI for those months of +2.1, 1982 was +1.9, and +1.7

2002 was +0.4, 1986 was +0.8, and 2010 was +0.4

this year literally has a lower MEI than those moderate years and isn't in the same galaxy as the super years listed above. hence my skepticism of a super Nino blowtorch this year. this doesn't take the location of the forcing into account either

54 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

In your hypothetical scenario yes, it would make things interesting possibly even with a super El Niño in place. However, I’m not so sure the WPAC will look exactly like it does now by December. Once the +IOD forcing really gets going I think the whole complexion changes out that way. All we can do is watch. That said, if we do in fact see a trimonthly ONI of +2.3C for NDJ, I still would not go with a cold winter, gotta agree with Griteater there

near normal is totally fine if there's blocking and a potent STJ if you're looking for big snow. doesn't have to be all that cold. Feb 2010 and Feb 1983 are good examples of that

1 hour ago, George001 said:

I guess it could be different, but based on how previous east based ninos and super ninos behaved I am concerned. Betting against historical precedent expecting things to be different this time usually doesn’t work out. This is true for most things. I hope im wrong, but I don’t like our odds of having even an average winter never mind a big one this year. 

but this is literally different than every nino in history. historical precedent isn’t as meaningful as it usually is

that does NOT look like a classic EB Nino. no idea what he’s talking about 

34 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

  

i’m not even sure what he’s getting on about here… the Nino becomes basin wide on the C3S and forcing remains near the dateline. this would work well once into Jan and Feb. weird tweet

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not worried about the ONI number...my focus in on H5 and vp.

Webb’s tweet is dumb. no idea what he’s complaining about here… deep trough by Jan with forcing a tick east of the dateline. this will work

not sure what Webb is even talking about. i’m praying this verifies. deep trough once into Jan with forcing near the dateline? sign me up

34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Once again, it is not even worth looking at model projected forcing 4+ months from now. This has been said ad nauseam. I don’t care what it shows for forcing, east-based, west-based, central-based. Once again, let’s see where the forcing is in November. Remember the great forcing the models were showing at this point in time for the 19-20 winter???

so we can look at the modeled SST anomalies at 8 months out all we want, but we can't look at the modeled forcing, which is the thing that actually influences the pattern? why is that

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, that is the thing...the forcing really isn't associated with it right now. MEI, RONI nor forcing currently portend a classic, east-base super el nino. Look back at every super el nino event and see where MEI,etc were as of June-July...not even close. Its not crazy to think that the residual la nina/war west PAC regime will alter things to a degree.

20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ray, wasn’t it a record -PNA last year too..trough into Mexico city(ok maybe just Baja) lol a lot of the time.   

yeah there was great blocking in Dec and Mar... the Dec blocking was picked up quite well by analogs

just got ruined by a mix of awful luck and an insane -PNA. this year should not feature that -PNA, so blocking will be far more beneficial combined with the STJ

I'm pretty confident in blocking given the Nino state as well as the -QBO

3 hours ago, George001 said:

There is still time for things to change but yeah things look really bad right now for winter prospects in New England. Super nino sucks, statistically it is the least favorable ENSO state for New England. Hopefully the models are wrong about the strength of the El Niño.

no they don’t 

way better than it looked last year. last year looked like shit and boy did  it deliver 

3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

.So much of the discussion in here is idiotic.

sorry it doesn’t live up to your lofty expectations 

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

How do you or anyone else for that matter know exactly what the WPAC is going to look come December and thereafter? Besides the Nino, the developing +IOD is also going to alter the WPAC SSTs and forcing. To say that if this Nino becomes super (looks very likely now) that it’s definitely not going to have the same bite or behave as other past super El Niños this winter is disingenuous at best. Unless some people are psychic and clairvoyant and know exactly what is going to happen 4, 5, 6, 7 months from now. It’s the beginning of August and things can and will change, possibly dramatically

i don’t think it’s disingenuous at all. it hasn’t behaved like one in the past whatsoever. why would it later on? perhaps, but I’m not banking on that

and it’s not for no reason. every other super Nino had that SST dipole with colder water in the WPAC. this one doesn’t, and it will have an impact