brooklynwx99

wow

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You don't want that ++EPO. The cold air will get cutoff. 

there's enough cold air if the SLP runs to the south with all of that confluence over SE Canada

this is what you want. stout S/W over Ark-La-Tex with lots of confluence over SE Canada 

just a massive signal for a storm of some sort on the 4th

definitely better. not great, but a big improvement. definitely more similar to 00z than 06z

improvement on the GEFS... lower heights out ahead of the trough and in SE Canada. should be colder

I would consider this a general improvement to the height field over SE Canada. OP runs gonna OP run

this cuts because the GFS phases with the NS vort in MN/IA. if that vort kicks ahead and interacts with the ULL in SE Canada, this would be much farther S. really no way to tell with that kind of stuff at this range

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looking ahead to Chuck's window/our Hail Mary period, pretty nice h5 look on the EPS. Anomalously cold too.

yeah, climo won't matter as much when you have cross-polar flow like that. you can snow until the 20th to the coast with that look. the 10-20th period does look very good, but we'll see if we can cash in on the 4th beforehand. tons of time to go

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEFS is stronger with the NW low and lost all of the S and E clustering. Strong signal again for a low to the N and W...at least of the major cities in our regions. Damn this model is stubborn asf. When it gets an idea it really holds onto it.

seems to me like it's being inconsistent. it flip-flopped between 18, 00, and 06z. doesn't inspire much confidence, IMO

I can guarantee if the OP is less amped at 12z it will follow lock-step. it's not a good ensemble for illustrating spread. the EPS is easily the best for that. not to say that it's wrong or anything... we can get an inland runner, but it's just been making big shifts on a whim

luckily the GEFS is underdispersive, so it'll follow the OP nine times out of 10. not surprising that it's quite rainy

I'll take this at 8 days out. very dynamic solution with hints of confluence and there's cold air around

LMAO

Just now, BristowWx said:

Yes the only constant is a storm in the eastern US in 8 days.  That keeps shifting north on every op run.  Worth watching.  

I wouldn't say that... the ECMWF is suppressed

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

snowfall mean definitely better than 0z... but temps are not good.

the thing with ensemble mean temps is that much of the members that show snow will probably be between 28 - 34, but the ones that cut and show rain can be like 50 - 60 degrees, so temps are prone to being skewed high. the 500mb and track of the SLPs looked great, though

this is pretty nice for the 4th. the initial wave establishes some confluence over the NE so that it's harder for the main wave to cut

main wave tracks underneath. should look good snowfall wise and temp wise. absolute ton of moisture with this thing as well

main wave tracks underneath. should look good snowfall wise and temp wise. absolute ton of moisture with this thing as well

this is pretty nice for the 4th. the initial wave establishes some confluence over the NE so that it's harder for the main wave to cut

ENS are much improved overall for the 3/4 threat. lower heights over the E US seems to be the theme

not gonna lie, the ENS look great so far. the OP runs are cool and all, and their solutions aren’t ridiculous or anything, but the ENS improving holds way more weight at this range

GEPS also much improved. way lower heights over the E US

the GEFS actually has lower heights in the E US before the wave arrives, unlike the OP

i’ll take it. at this range I just wanna see a strong storm consistently showing up

if it was perfect people would be saying “well you don’t wanna be in the bullseye 8 days out” so you can never truly win at this range

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Okay 

Still liking the trends?

no, not really, but it's 4-5 days away. confluence is always a bear for modeling so we'll see where it goes

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Even with a negative NAO

Smfh

that's not how that works

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s more than moderate. Spoiled millennials. 

that is a significant to major event lmao hell, I'm 23 and I know that after living through the 10s in NYC