brooklynwx99

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the interesting thing is that favorable patterns that produce and "favorable" patterns that don't produce seem to run in bunches, this is evidence that it isn't random....there is some outside variable that isn't being factored in, which makes the "favorable" pattern that doesn't produce less favorable than it might seem.

 

I don't think that's the case. the weather is inherently chaotic and there's no way we could ever figure out how to decipher that chaos more than 5 or so days in advance with any kind of certainty. it's not possible and luck will always play a factor

at this point I wouldn't pay much attention to the GFS/GEFS unless the EPS/GEPS move towards it in a significant way. it's on a complete island right now, and the EPS/GEPS became more favorable, if anything. definitely dug their heels in at 12z while the GEFS has been shuffling about... the GFS OP moved towards them in a big way

this is nearly perfect. the EPS is holding serve on a legitimate KU evolution for next weekend

this is nearly perfect. the EPS is holding serve on a legitimate KU evolution for next weekend

this is nearly perfect. the EPS is holding serve on a legitimate KU evolution for next weekend

EPS has been trending better and better. stronger -NAO, AK ridging trending more poleward, and a quicker exit of the WC trough. this run looks explosive

jesus christ. KU incoming on the ECMWF, no exaggeration

ECMWF holding serve, booting the S/W out of the west. the GFS still remains alone here at 12z

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It picked up on more interaction with the western trough/NS energy and the resulting NW track for the March 3-4 storm first.

I know, that's probably the one thing that it's gotten right all by itself this year. usually happens once a year or so. still the worst performing model out of all the globals

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

The model King thing is so dumb lol. 

the GFS usually gets one thing right all year and then flubs as soon as there's an impactful coastal storm. I have seen it so many times

it sucked with Monday's system up here anyway so I'm not even sure what people are talking about 

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Quite interesting to see  those differences in the handling of the western energy.  The GFS was on its own for this upcoming weekend event as it shifted north to where we are now before the other models...the others moved toward it slowly but surely hence all those "King GFS" posts....why do you think this period of time is different? 

first off, it's because it's been rather inconsistent, it's underdispersive, and it's outnumbered by the other two ENS

I'll put it this way... if the GEFS was the only ENS that was showing a KU setup and the GEPS/EPS were slower or less clear, I would absolutely, 100% guarantee that everyone would discount the GEFS. no question in my mind

the whole evolution it shows is also bizarre to me, and I would expect something more like the other two ENS, it just makes more sense in my head. the GEFS solution is not impossible, but I would lean more towards the EPS/GEPS considering they hold the majority and are becoming stronger in their signals, if anything. we'll see what the EPS does in a bit

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

But that could also lead us to sheared out storms that’s slide off the coast could it not?

yes, but that's the risk you have to take to avoid cutters. overall it's a very favorable pattern

also the GEPS still looks great for next week. absolutely nothing like the GEFS, more so following the EPS

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Agree with Allsnow, great calls all winter and was one of the few that dismissed the "favorable" December pattern when even Forky was on board. 

the pattern was favorable. full stop. its lack of production is a different story

GEPS still looks great for next week. absolutely nothing like the GEFS, more so following the EPS

GEFS is still pretty much the same in the west, which is annoying, but it is really ratcheting up the blocking now, so that's a plus. that C US ridge is also getting squashed. the GEFS is pretty much on its own with this look by Thursday... the GEPS looks like it's going to hold serve from 00z last night

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It drops the avocado. Cold but not much precip.

I'm cool with that. the ideal pattern progression is there and we get a big, dynamic solution. good run

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I am willing to learn how that last pattern is good for our latitude. We don’t get snowstorms on the downward side of a trough.

the 50/50 ULL locks in confluence and keeps storms from cutting. it's probably the most important feature for any 6"+ snowstorm in the MA

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

This winter will find many ways to screw us. 

GFS led the charge in this Fridays cutter. 

I know I just think it's funny how this winter will find multiple ways to screw us

use the ensembles and take a breath

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Big cutter on the GFS

it made a positive shift in the west. you're going to get weird OP solutions at 10 days out

no comments on the CMC? 

Just now, Brasiluvsnow said:

I will ask the question and I hope that some other people want this answered as well but what exactly is KU ? I apologize in advance for my ignorance 

basically a storm that qualifies for a NESIS ranking... a notably high-end storm

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

So close on the CMC.

so close indeed, but this is a KU setup. near textbook

CMC holding serve with booting the S/W out... this looks very good

really nice trend here with the ULL from the Rex block and the S/W of focus over the last few runs... we've see increased separation between the two features, and 12z is even showing ridging popping up between the two... this would allow for the S/W to get booted E instead of getting trapped W

this is what the ECMWF/CMC ENS had, and hopefully it's a sign that they're handling the pattern better

here are the effects of that small change only a day later... seems like a legit shift towards the more favorable pattern evolution