brooklynwx99

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Maybe biggest difference is separation of the troughs? Other than that it looks identical

that is the major feature that determines whether the vort gets booted east or not, that one difference makes all the difference. there is a piece of a ridge on the EPS where the GEFS has a trough in the E Pacific. it’s a big change

they also vary in how they deal with the AK ridging. EPS and GEPS are more poleward

idk if some of you guys are doing like some weird reverse psychology coping mechanism stuff saying that the GFS “won” or whatever, but it makes zero sense and it’s kind of annoying 

i get the cynicism, but come on

18 minutes ago, Heisy said:

This was possibly a trend towards GFS

Here is 18z control vs 12z… posting control because it generally follows the OP

Can see the difference in western energy and the EPS confirms it. Not saying it’s like GFS yet but a clear step. Onto 00z




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I wouldn’t say so. the way that the vort behaves is still radically different 

the EPS still boots the vort relatively quickly. it’s about the same as 12z in that regard, you can see it moving east. the GEFS actually backs the core of the trough NW. they’re totally different still. wouldn’t say one moved towards the other

the EPS probably amped the trough up a bit more, which explains the W tick, but the way it behaves is the same as 12z due to the differing Pacific layouts

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

How are they much different at Day 6?

18z EPS only goes out to 144

EPS still looks nothing like the GEFS. all is well

15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

What am I missing here? The trend has been to bury that energy in the W and pump the SER, at least based on the trends you posted. Trying to link the stout NAO and building ridge. And yes, that is a ridge please stop saying it is just higher heights between longwaves. It's essentially the same thing?

it’s farther east and at least attempting to get it out of the west, that was the point there

also, I don’t think the adage of models being “hot” or “cold” has merit. past performance is not an indication of future success, and the GFS is far away from the consensus, so I have to lean against it

if some want to be pessimistic, i get it, but we just have to see things shake out

I'm only half kidding, I think this pattern broke the GFS. like what the actual F is this

the EPS and GEPS are in absolute lock step agreement with every major pattern feature and then you have the GEFS in left field picking its nose. idk. I can't believe it right now unless the EPS or GEPS make a big shift towards it

either way, one camp is going to cave soon. let's hope it's the GEFS

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Awesome, looks like GEFS went towards the OP, this winter…



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it almost always goes towards the OP, though. it's a bad ensemble

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You know I always run with the means at range. I'll also go with consensus. Doesn't always work lol.

this is also what I mean. it looks like the GFS is also just having a hard time with the pattern right now and it breaks everything down WAY too fast

like wtf is this? this doesn't even have any waves. just a bunch of smattered crap. compare that with the EPS control, which looks like actual weather

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I have become a believer in the Ji rule.

I'll put it this way. if the GFS/GEFS was the only model showing a favorable outcome and every other model had what the GFS has now, would you believe the favorable outcome? I absolutely would not. it's a game of odds and they're in our favor right now

these differences are occurring at like Day 5-6, so this will be resolved over the next couple of days anyway, regardless of the outcome

there is definitely a trend here to get the vort out faster, though, regardless of whatever weird way the GFS is thinking of doing it verbatim

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

We really need the Euro's superior resolution/computing power/diverse array of data assimilation, or whatever the fuck supposedly makes it better, to be right in this case. Not that the GFS is awful, but we don't have a lot of time here.

the relative consistency of the ECMWF / CMC also give me a bit more confidence that they have the right idea. the GFS has been a bit erratic with its handling of the NW US vort

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

18z GFS depicts a bit less interaction out west with the Pac trough. Western US energy might eject eastward quicker.

yup, exactly... continuing the trends from 12z. block is stronger too

Just now, CAPE said:

I mean, its not impossible. As I have said, give me one solid 6" snow event that sticks around for a day and I'll be content after this disaster of a winter.

looks like a true block as well with a trough stretching from the E US into Europe. kinda like your avatar   

1 minute ago, Chris12WX said:

Of course this is probably all a useless discussion as this will probably transition into a repeat of the Christmas bomb. Maybe we'll get severe out of it?

this pattern looks way different than that one

Just now, snowman19 said:

Everyone discounting the GFS and throwing it out needs to remember it was the first one to show Friday/Saturday as being a non event. The Euro and CMC kept showing a snowstorm this weekend run after run. Not saying the GFS is going to be right, but I would not just toss it in the trash either

I agree that you can't completely throw it out, but a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then. I'm sticking with the higher skilled majority as of now

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS suite was on an island for this weeks storm for several days too

not to say it's absolutely, 100% wrong, but a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then

I'm just leaning on the more consistent, higher scoring majority as of now

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the interesting thing is that favorable patterns that produce and "favorable" patterns that don't produce seem to run in bunches, this is evidence that it isn't random....there is some outside variable that isn't being factored in, which makes the "favorable" pattern that doesn't produce less favorable than it might seem.

 

I don't think that's the case. the weather is inherently chaotic and there's no way we could ever figure out how to decipher that chaos more than 5 or so days in advance with any kind of certainty. it's not possible and luck will always play a factor

at this point I wouldn't pay much attention to the GFS/GEFS unless the EPS/GEPS move towards it in a significant way. it's on a complete island right now, and the EPS/GEPS became more favorable, if anything. definitely dug their heels in at 12z while the GEFS has been shuffling about... the GFS OP moved towards them in a big way

this is nearly perfect. the EPS is holding serve on a legitimate KU evolution for next weekend

this is nearly perfect. the EPS is holding serve on a legitimate KU evolution for next weekend

this is nearly perfect. the EPS is holding serve on a legitimate KU evolution for next weekend

EPS has been trending better and better. stronger -NAO, AK ridging trending more poleward, and a quicker exit of the WC trough. this run looks explosive