brooklynwx99

ICON, grain of salt

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This ICON reigns in the start of the 0Zs looking deeper with the N stream at 66 hr

yup. this looks explosive, if nothing else

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

18z euro vs 12z, make of it what you will.




.

NS a bit deeper, but SS probably would have kicked a bit farther SE as it’s not as wrapped up in the trough. looks good, would bomb again

Just now, dryslot said:

The GFS still has more upgrades needed to unseat the Euro, Its still bad with complex coastal systems.

yeah this kind of setup is the GFS’s real undoing. it’s still much too progressive with phasing scenarios

it’s doing its best

EPS is super similar to the OP

lmao seriously though, it would be impressive. but let's get the 500mb down first. long way to go

3 minutes ago, masonwoods said:

There hasn’t been any discussion about wind potential.  Thoughts?

windy

also, as silly as it sounds to mention, -1C is 30 degrees. makes a big difference if the lower levels are that cold. you're also getting adiabatic cooling. it would snow there, no question

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Anytime you get legit heavy rates, it's going to latently cool the sfc to near freezing. With those rates and height falls shown on the Euro, it's going to be heavy snow under the CCB even in low elevations.

If we end with with a system that produces only moderate rates, then the lower levels will definitely play a much larger role in preventing accumulations.

yup, March is go big or go home. nice to see the ECMWF and UKMET agree. that used to be a deadly combo at this range, but who even knows now

the EPS will be interesting. I'd like to see more of these show up

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Too warm for the coast.

nah, 925mb temps drop to -2 to -1 with a massive CCB overhead. would rip to the coast verbatim

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lower elevations would get crushed on the euro solution inside the meat of the CCB.

that kind of solution is where dynamic cooling would actually occur. 925mb temps are more useful here

that is one of the sickest 500mb evolutions i've ever seen. full capture and close E of LI

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sooo.. heh

12z's have either trended warmer, or a big waste of time ... take a pick?

sounds like March D6 forecasting, incarnate.  

 

and then there's this

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wish we could get that H5 bodily under LI, but that is too large of a correction, at this stage...IMO.

the UKMET actually manages to pull that off. absolutely sick 500mb evolution

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The primary needs to die faster

 

if most of SNE wants in on it, the ECMWF / UKMET solution with a quicker transfer needs to happen. GFS is too late

the EPS is pretty crazy. scanning over the individual members, the ones that do nuke the metro are the ones that end up stalling and looping ACK southward. these probably capture the soonest. keep an eye on members 4, 11, 15, 19, 20, 21, 30, 31, 33, 34, and 43... these all have a far S stall and deliver a MECS to the area

whether it happens or not is one thing, but there is certainly potential here

there is a pretty ridiculous amount of members that completely stall and loop sub-980 lows here. it's very impressive

like there are 10-15 or so that straight up stall over or S of ACK. it's wild

I do like seeing the lower heights in S Canada and the ticking east of the ULL

christ

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I haven't seen the GFS defeat the Euro yet on a significant coastal storm for us since it was the AVN model when it scored a coup in the 12/30/00 storm. Even when the Euro barfed in that run with giving NYC 30" in the Jan 2015 storm...it was like 50 miles too far west....but the GFS was still scraping ORH with like an inch of QPF....lol.

GFS has really seemed to close the gap on the Euro in non-coastals.

even last year with the blizzard, the ECMWF did leagues better than any other model. the GFS was awful

pure coastals are the one thing that still remains as a sore spot for the GFS

I'll take my chances with that if it means I have to flirt with 2" of rain. that's the risk you have to take in mid-March anywhere near the coast

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It’s also extremely unlikely and doesn’t fit the pattern, another clown solution from the long range Euro.  A storm forming way off shore and whiffing like Saturdays is far more likely

how does that not fit the pattern? Tip went on a whole diatribe about how this kind of exotic solution can arise. you have a massive lobe of vorticity over S Canada coinciding with a PNA phase change. it's not a ridiculous concept that a large storm can result

it's very difficult, but I think getting the NS lobe as far south as possible is the best way to get a big storm that can actually get cold enough. the ECMWF basically pulled off a heavy rain to blizzard type deal because of it away from the immediate coast

temps are a problem, but something this dynamic is a possibility. it's intriguing if nothing else

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Another weak storm looks likely, this trends same as Saturday’s storm

ok