brooklynwx99

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this is a wx board, right? don't you find these changes interesting? 

interesting and real, but indeed depressing

winter is over forever. might as well close up shop. base state and all

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I guess by "high end", I mean the type of season where I end up with like 90"+...

it was more prolific NYC south. NYC had 44.7" and BWI had 43.0"

makes sense when you had this pattern for the last three months of the season. basically 2009-10 lite

an evolution like 1957-58 wouldn't really be that farfetched given where all the warmth is under the surface right now. the CanSIPS has a pretty similar evolution with the stronger east-based anomalies migrating westward during autumn

49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

57-58? 

57-58 was strong and also came off a stretch of three Ninas. honestly, not a far-fetched SST configuration given the subsurface anomalies. it's somewhere between basin-wide and Modoki. ended up becoming a prolific winter, regardless

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

 

Of course not

We don't want anything strong 

O well onto winter 2024-2025

you realize 2002-03 and 2009-10 were both borderline strong, right? the placement of the anomalies matters more, anyway. I would much rather have a strong Modoki instead of a weak-moderate east-based Nino

3 hours ago, Ji said:

Yikes

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/#region=NINO34

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

I'm cool with that. anything with a chance at a 3 footer is fine by my book with an STJ that strong

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

09-10 was horrible. I've never seen 3 blizzards melt in 3 days each time like that. Would have rather there been no snow. That's why the start of the warm/stagnant pattern was somewhere 05-08. 

holy fuck lmao 

absolutely insane take 

49 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Tbh I feel myself losing interest...I'll bet this board goes the way of the SE forum if we continue to have winters like the last 7 years. I don't know about anybody else, but I came here and was drawn to the science of it for the snow. Without that, or with it becoming increasingly difficult and even less of a ROI than it was in what used to be a "bad" year before this drought.

you say that, but wait until we get an onslaught of cutoffs like the west has been getting recently. what goes around comes around 

there has been plenty of discussion about how climate change is making it harder for the MA to get consistent snow, but what I can say with certainty is that when it rains, it pours. put Jan 2016 in this winter and BWI gets a 30 burger

forky with the weenies lmao

39 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I still don't fully understand Modoki EL Nino. Does this involve or incorporate SSTA's off the west coast of the US?

Also, I think it gets alot harder to correlate EL Nino strength b/c of when EL Nino typically peaks and how rapidly it can weaken. One thing I find interesting is majority of EL Nino events prior to 1960 seemed to remain pretty steadfast through the winter season, but since then there has been a greater tendency for events to rapidly weaken during the late fall/early winter months. I'm actually working on trying to do breakdowns of weak, moderate, strong but finding it a bit challenging. There are also some events which peaked in the late summer/early fall, so do you classify based off peak strength or whatever the strength was maybe in the trimonthly period or two before winter (DJF)? 

Modoki is just when the greatest positive anomalies are centered near the Dateline, forcing a deep trough in a really nice spot south of the Aleutians. they're also quite blocky in the Atlantic

Nino 1+2 can also have negative anomalies, but it's often just the least warm portion of the ENSO domain

5 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said:

"we" as in ya'll.

West-based please.

west-based and central-based are the same thing, just different wording. they're great for both NYC and BWI due to the persistent Aleutian LP

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Almost no chance of getting another La Nina with a subsurface that looks like this

 

 

yeah that look makes me more inclined to think that we might get the holy grail moderate Modoki this year. all that warmth near the Dateline has to go somewhere. the CanSIPS has a nice evolution with the warmth migrating towards the Dateline as the Nino matures

PDO also becomes neutral, W Atlantic really cools down. I'm honestly quite excited for next winter

2 minutes ago, 512high said:

Great ! Get this Nina shit out of here! (No offense to my wife, her name is Nina lol) Ray is there a chance come late Fall this trend could go back to "Nina"?

we have never ever had four -ENSO years in a row, if that's any consolation. ENSO is a self-destructive process

seasonals almost never predict below average temps for entire months at that range, so the CanSIPS showing a solidly below average February is quite impressive

if we get a central-based Nino we're probably going to clean up. those are almost always money

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like we will finally turn the page on la nina and enter el nino.

Just to be clear, this is just early conjecture and I am not claiming that these are viable analogs in anyway....not a forecast.

El nino following triple-dip cool ENSO:

1957, 1976, 1986, 2002, 2014

 

El nino following consecutive cool ENSO adds five more years to the list:

1963, 1968, 1972, 1997, 2018.

 

 

 

2009-10 also followed two consecutive Ninas, one of them strong during 2007-08

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I remember way before the insane CC debates trying to attribute 7 year trends to it, we used to discuss back in college how inflated the 1951-1980 or 1961-1990 snowfall normals were compared to 1971-2000 (after those came out while in the middle of college)....and whether 1971-2000 was a sign of decreasing snow or just a really shitty period because it had the brutal 1980s but didn't have a prolific decade in it anymore like the 1960s.

It turned out that it just happened to be a shitty period in the 30 year record....as we quickly returned to larger snowfall winters. No guarantee that always happens, but it was am interesting conversation at the time which parallels some of the discourse on here.

imagine how people in the west felt during 2013-14 and 2014-15 when they were parked under a 578dam ridge all winter. that was ALSO due to climate change. it all is.

people only attribute its influence to less snowy periods when it made the snowy periods a bit more insane, too 

5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Man, the euro really crapped the bed with this event….



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look at it this way, this shift helps the Rockies get their 43rd blizzard of the year! they’ve really been starved for snow out there, good for them 

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You live in Philly lol you really think you have a shot at a snowstorm next week?

he never said that lmao

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Funny…except this region struggles to get snow even in good years. It’s only the extremely rare 1-2 a decade years like 96/03/10/14 that snow comes easy. The rest, even ones you probably remember as great in your area, were a struggle with long frustrating periods and lots of fails mixed with a few victories. That was our climo to begin with, without accounting for any degradation. 

i know, I was being facetious. either way, next winter seems like the best shot for the MA to get it good in a while. I want to break the spring barrier, but if we're staring down a moderate Nino by June, I will be pretty excited

if we get a moderate Modoki I would say there's a much higher than normal chance for a 30"+ winter for BWI. they're that good. even basin-wide would give a great shot at it. just happy that we're incinerating this multi year Nina

wait a second. i forgot. we are going to see 95 Ninas in the next 110 years. and they will all suck. and maybe 5 Ninos in there, but they will be +3.0 and have the Pacific jet stretching to Iowa. the other ten will have no snow because base state

here's something for you guys to drool over for a bit. the CanSIPS is basically forecasting a high-end moderate Modoki that would have an insane February. ideal tropical forcing, neutral PDO, Pacific is mint, and there's a very active STJ along with blocking

nice to see, at least

well... this would do. I would pay for this to verify

basically migrates the east-based Nino into more of a Modoki. kinda makes sense when you see all the subsurface warmth near the dateline right now. the location of the tropical forcing looks great, too

obviously, we aren't going to have a feel on the location of the greatest anomalies for a few more months, at least, but I don't think this is a lock to be east-based by any means. basin-wide or Modoki make more intuitive sense looking at the state of the subsurface right now

42 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

It’s technically dead now, but I think we need to go through the summer to fully flush this atmospheric pattern out and allow a new one to set in. 

yeah there’s a bit of a lag so it’ll take until mid-late spring

3 hours ago, Heisy said:

So I’ve finally checked out lol, but it’s really amazing to me how the pattern of waves tracking from around Alaska down to the Southwest continues until the end of month and shows no signs of stopping. What is it going to take to get a stable +PNA?

Here is the 12z euro at the end of the run. Does this pattern look familiar to anyone?!?! A developing block, but we have a SE ridge bridge connecting to it. An overly strong wave coming out of the southwest and seemingly another ready to head that way too. Feel like we’re stuck in purgatory. We’ve been unable to mute the SE ridge all year.




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La Niña