brooklynwx99

even after allllll that, the GFS still redevelops. we literally get a coastal from this. that’s why this pattern is so good. you can still get a somewhat favorable end result from garbage

look at these run-to-run changes. it’s just a cracked out OP run. look at the consistency of the CMC/ECMWF and whatever the hell that is. just follow the ensembles

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

12z cmc delivering for next Sat. 

yup, the CMC is insane, very similar to 00z yesterday

also the CMC is still absurd. might be to the west verbatim but I don’t care. this is sick at 500mb and closely resembles 00z

Just now, stormtracker said:

It's trying to build heights out in front, but it can't so far.

this is why I hate hate hate when people say -NAOs are overrated. bullshit. this thing would be over the Dakotas and we’d be in the 70s if not for it

instead, it might actually force a 3 sigma trough to the south. unreal

any strong wave versus this block is basically an immovable object versus a not completely unstoppable force (the vort). a block of this magnitude will win the vast majority of the time 

look at the persistent negative height anomalies from the gyre in the N Atl 

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So far

 

So far, your pronouncement is looking more right than not.  It's digging in and being pushed south a bit.  Again, doesn't mean is gonna play out that way, just relaying what is going on current.  Can't make a prediction yet

any strong wave versus this block is basically an immovable object versus a not completely unstoppable force (the vort). a block of this magnitude will win the vast majority of the time 

look at the persistent negative height anomalies from the gyre in the N Atl 

look at the NW flow in place over the NE US. this is not gonna be a typical solution that you’d see with a S/W that strong over the SW US. this might just go underneath

that still doesn’t even look bad with the absolutely insane block in place. let the run play out and then look at the ENS

here come the sweeping freakouts over one OP run

17 minutes ago, Heisy said:

6z eps trended stronger with incoming wave at end of run, thinking we’d like to start reversing that soon…



.

the blocking also got stronger so I don’t mind that shift

I’d rather a vigorous wave coming out of the west than a piece of crap

EPS gone wild. like holy crap

absolutely insane signal for this range

this still looks amazing. wow

the EPS made a pretty significant shift towards a farther SW 50/50 that would help suppress height rises ahead of the main S/W

overall, still looks mint

the EPS made a pretty significant shift towards a farther SW 50/50 that would help suppress height rises ahead of the main S/W

overall, still looks mint

EPS runs inland but the 500mb is super ripe for a major storm. fine for this range

the major storm signal is still there… all that matters at this range. let’s see what the EPS does in a bit

ECMWF looks good so far

the GEFS has pretty much totally caved to the EPS/GEPS with its handling of the WC S/W. looks like next weekend is now a legit threat given that the models are kicking a shortwave under the block

this is probably the highest potential pattern since March 2018. there will be multiple opportunities for high-end threats

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I had no doubts eventually legit threats would come from this…I just didn’t feel like arguing about it. I let you do the dirty work. 

meteorological intuition won out. thank God lmao I was honestly getting a bit worried for a little while 

nice subtle shift here to provide more wave spacing with the 50/50

this is the most loaded pattern I have seen since 2016, probably. multiple opportunities for high-end threats

GEFS has finally come full circle to the EPS/GEPS. astounding

what in God’s name