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brooklynwx99

Meteorologist
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Posts posted by brooklynwx99

  1. 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

    Thanks. What’s the ensemble sensitivity based on? Is it the placement of the block?

    it seems to be how zonal the Pacific jet is. the GFS is trending towards a more zonal Pacific jet, which helps boot the S/W out of the west instead of letting it dig. this is key to getting a coastal storm here

    the trend is continuing on the 12z GFS... look at the E PAC ridge weakening and the increase in interaction between the S/W and ULL over the Pacific. look off of the CA coast

    ezgif-1-53225c36d4.thumb.gif.6eb71645999b47ba5a4cee9ca001137f.gif

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  2. the progression on the EPS is quite similar to that of Feb 2021 with the vigorous S/W getting forced underneath the block. it's not very far off. what a shift here

    just keep in mind that this is not the end solution at all... but the overall synoptics might not be failing us as we previously thought. gotta trust the pattern to produce

    ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-1677974400-1678406400-1678644000-40-1.thumb.gif.0a552c58b2745c261247a9897c7dc393.gif

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  3. GEFS is night and day. love seeing the trough link up with the confluence as well. block is farther N, leading to a lower chance of linking with the height rises ahead of the trough

    great run. this is a major step in the right direction

    ezgif-2-f765cc12d1.thumb.gif.e0085e4aba40fd2127914396e9156787.gif

    • Thanks 2
  4. 23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

    GFS is slightly improved. notice the lower heights out in the E Pac at the same latitude of the trough on the WC and higher heights towards AK

    this is a shift towards more Pac jet interaction and the ECMWF solution 

    7C8B9B60-3B71-43C2-B8E2-BEA17D56EE58.thumb.gif.0071ca839548b93e593c1adaddd71069.gif

    same on CMC

    F1C40674-4751-4E0B-87D7-996A10BADE2A.thumb.gif.77707c8c89ff9dde36db1b4c12fc5764.gif

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  5. GFS is slightly improved. notice the lower heights out in the E Pac at the same latitude of the trough on the WC and higher heights towards AK

    this is a shift towards more Pac jet interaction and the ECMWF solution 

    7C8B9B60-3B71-43C2-B8E2-BEA17D56EE58.thumb.gif.0071ca839548b93e593c1adaddd71069.gif

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