brooklynwx99

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEFS is stronger with the NW low and lost all of the S and E clustering. Strong signal again for a low to the N and W...at least of the major cities in our regions. Damn this model is stubborn asf. When it gets an idea it really holds onto it.

seems to me like it's being inconsistent. it flip-flopped between 18, 00, and 06z. doesn't inspire much confidence, IMO

I can guarantee if the OP is less amped at 12z it will follow lock-step. it's not a good ensemble for illustrating spread. the EPS is easily the best for that. not to say that it's wrong or anything... we can get an inland runner, but it's just been making big shifts on a whim

luckily the GEFS is underdispersive, so it'll follow the OP nine times out of 10. not surprising that it's quite rainy

I'll take this at 8 days out. very dynamic solution with hints of confluence and there's cold air around

LMAO

Just now, BristowWx said:

Yes the only constant is a storm in the eastern US in 8 days.  That keeps shifting north on every op run.  Worth watching.  

I wouldn't say that... the ECMWF is suppressed

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

snowfall mean definitely better than 0z... but temps are not good.

the thing with ensemble mean temps is that much of the members that show snow will probably be between 28 - 34, but the ones that cut and show rain can be like 50 - 60 degrees, so temps are prone to being skewed high. the 500mb and track of the SLPs looked great, though

this is pretty nice for the 4th. the initial wave establishes some confluence over the NE so that it's harder for the main wave to cut

main wave tracks underneath. should look good snowfall wise and temp wise. absolute ton of moisture with this thing as well

main wave tracks underneath. should look good snowfall wise and temp wise. absolute ton of moisture with this thing as well

this is pretty nice for the 4th. the initial wave establishes some confluence over the NE so that it's harder for the main wave to cut

ENS are much improved overall for the 3/4 threat. lower heights over the E US seems to be the theme

not gonna lie, the ENS look great so far. the OP runs are cool and all, and their solutions aren’t ridiculous or anything, but the ENS improving holds way more weight at this range

GEPS also much improved. way lower heights over the E US

the GEFS actually has lower heights in the E US before the wave arrives, unlike the OP

i’ll take it. at this range I just wanna see a strong storm consistently showing up

if it was perfect people would be saying “well you don’t wanna be in the bullseye 8 days out” so you can never truly win at this range

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Okay 

Still liking the trends?

no, not really, but it's 4-5 days away. confluence is always a bear for modeling so we'll see where it goes

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Even with a negative NAO

Smfh

that's not how that works

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s more than moderate. Spoiled millennials. 

that is a significant to major event lmao hell, I'm 23 and I know that after living through the 10s in NYC

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was a widespread 6-12” for SNE.

this is apparently a less exciting solution

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We got the general look. There is the trailing wave.

love seeing that -NAO and 50/50 dipole. shows that it's a true block

slightly OT as we wait for the ECMWF, but the GEFS synoptically looks pretty great for 3/4. stout -NAO and a 50/50 signal as well with a digging trough over the eastern half of the country

this is a good signal for a storm that'll be affected by confluence with the nascent 50/50 and -NAO dipole

interestingly enough, there are a handful of members that jackpot the N Mid-Atlantic and leave NE with scraps. one is even suppressed down to DC

looking at the 500mb from each member, it's apparent that these members have higher heights initially, leading to the S/W digging more and ending up farther S. this allows less influence from the primary SLP

take these two members, for example. member 28 on the left likely has a progressive front-end thump with the greatest amounts in NNE. however, member 29 on the right has a pretty classic DCA-PHL-NYC axis that is certainly influenced by confluent flow to the N. so, I think this bears a lot of watching. we want to see the S/W amped for a farther S track. all of the members that have this kind of snowfall distribution (members 20, 21, 27, 29) have the same initially amped S/W

interestingly enough, there are a handful of members that jackpot the N Mid-Atlantic and leave NE with scraps. one is even suppressed down to DC

looking at the 500mb from each member, it's apparent that these members have higher heights initially, leading to the S/W digging more and ending up farther S. this allows less influence from the primary SLP

take these two members, for example. member 28 on the left likely has a progressive front-end thump with the greatest amounts in NNE. however, member 29 on the right has a pretty classic DCA-PHL-NYC axis that is certainly influenced by confluent flow to the N. so, I think this bears a lot of watching, as it seems that the heights out west as the S/W ejects have a significant impact on the amount of latitude gain. all of the members that have this kind of snowfall distribution (members 20, 21, 27, 29) have the same initially amped S/W

the GEFS actually made a move in the colder direction. lower downstream heights and touch more confluence

GFS has more confluence so far

6 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Love to see it! Now, will this hold? It's fun to finally just have something besides scraps to track... now off to scrape the ice off the truck and get to work 31° and freezing rain 

I think you're in a great spot. I would say if we get to 00z and we're in around the same spot, there's going to be a storm. let's get through today and see what happens