brooklynwx99

17 minutes ago, Heisy said:

6z eps trended stronger with incoming wave at end of run, thinking we’d like to start reversing that soon…



.

the blocking also got stronger so I don’t mind that shift

I’d rather a vigorous wave coming out of the west than a piece of crap

EPS gone wild. like holy crap

absolutely insane signal for this range

this still looks amazing. wow

the EPS made a pretty significant shift towards a farther SW 50/50 that would help suppress height rises ahead of the main S/W

overall, still looks mint

the EPS made a pretty significant shift towards a farther SW 50/50 that would help suppress height rises ahead of the main S/W

overall, still looks mint

EPS runs inland but the 500mb is super ripe for a major storm. fine for this range

the major storm signal is still there… all that matters at this range. let’s see what the EPS does in a bit

ECMWF looks good so far

the GEFS has pretty much totally caved to the EPS/GEPS with its handling of the WC S/W. looks like next weekend is now a legit threat given that the models are kicking a shortwave under the block

this is probably the highest potential pattern since March 2018. there will be multiple opportunities for high-end threats

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I had no doubts eventually legit threats would come from this…I just didn’t feel like arguing about it. I let you do the dirty work. 

meteorological intuition won out. thank God lmao I was honestly getting a bit worried for a little while 

nice subtle shift here to provide more wave spacing with the 50/50

this is the most loaded pattern I have seen since 2016, probably. multiple opportunities for high-end threats

GEFS has finally come full circle to the EPS/GEPS. astounding

what in God’s name

MUCH more amped S/W diving into the Rockies on this run. there has been a total cave by the GEFS today. it’s not really a question at this point IMO. something will pop on many members this run

here’s the main thing IMO… look at the trend to have less and less interaction between the ULL in the Pacific and our S/W of interest, as well as the stronger blocking

this lack of interaction (now even a ridge on the 00z run today!) allows for the S/W to escape E rather than get sucked W. this is a huge development towards the more favorable foreign models

Just now, Ji said:

does digital blue really count on the cmc?

it’s better than the GFS, i’d say so

this could be someone’s new avatar

that is absurd lmao

the CMC does eject a stronger vort into the flow… this is really what does it

this doesn’t require any analysis. holy shit.

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Wacky evolution for sure. Probably won’t play out as depicted but hopefully moving closer to the right solution for us

yeah I think this continues to move towards the EPS/GEFS line of thinking. definitely not in the other direction

either way, the main thing will be how the ENS behave. this is such a cracked out and exotic pattern that the OP runs are going to vary wildly

we FINALLY have actual vorticity in the flow on the GFS. can’t believe the day is here 

Just now, pazzo83 said:

sorry brooklyn I should've posted a pic of the R train - but the enthusiasm is the same lol

fuck the R train LMAO

also my name is Kyle