brooklynwx99

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

If it’s more N/S dominant (which this run is since it’s diving farther S) I’d worry about stronger primary and more of a tug inland as it develops Northward. See what 12z euro run brings, but i do think if we saw that run go out beyond 144 there would have been a lot of huggers, that being said it would have probably crushed the interior. Feeling good about this being the real deal and the GFS will likely adjust by end of the day. As always, with storm #1 the GFS is slowly caving to euro/eps guidance. I would probably gambled a million dollars that the 6z gfs was going to come in less amped vs it’s 00z run and it did….

Rooting for the coastal plain but just want a big one to chase…




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yes, but get the NS to really dive south and you raise the ceiling. it's a risk I'm willing to take at this point in the season... go big or go home

the whole "no changes" shit is completely disingenuous. there have obviously been wholesale changes in the pattern. whether that leads to snow or not is a totally different story and is dependent on way more factors than simple longwave configuration

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

wasn't the EPS perfect a few days ago for a KU this weekend.  Thought you couldn't draw it up any better?

no changes?

the EPS is quite nice for early next week. we have a much more cohesive PNA ridge in an ideal location, a vigorous S/W over the Great Lakes digging S, and SS vorticity streaming in to increase the chance for a phase

this does have the benefit of having more cold air to work with, and it seems more like a Miller A / hybrid rather than a pure redeveloper that would need perfect timing... seems to have a lot of moisture associated with it, as well

the EPS is quite nice for early next week. we have a much more cohesive PNA ridge in an ideal location, a vigorous S/W over the Great Lakes digging S, and SS vorticity streaming in to increase the chance for a phase

this does have the benefit of having more cold air to work with, and it seems more like a Miller A / hybrid rather than a pure redeveloper that would need perfect timing... seems to have a lot of moisture associated with it, as well

I mean, it's not uncommon for a weaker, more progressive wave to establish a baroclinic zone / confluence for a larger, more cohesive follow-up

that's pretty much what the EPS and CMC (and ENS) have trended towards

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie having the same trend out west. Clearly this is something all 12z guidance sees. Every single model at 12z has had the same trend out west of amplifying that ridge a little more with a bit more wave spacing. That is good because it increases the upside in this storm if we're looking for a big dog.

(the storm actually whiffs us south on the Ukie...but that is mostly irrelevant at the moment)

yeah, this is pretty striking from an ENS mean in the short to medium range. perhaps the Pacific is getting resolved in the way we want

the trend is the most important part here IMO, not the end result... the GFS and CMC have been moving towards the ECMWF for a while, hopefully they completely cave at the surface soon. the ENS will be very interesting

GFS making the same changes. awesome 12z suite so far

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why does it seem like no matter what the track this will be rain for us

 

not true, the ENS show many members that have snow. just has to be wrapped up, which is certainly a possibility. the OP runs just haven't explicitly shown these scenarios yet

CMC completely caved to the ECMWF... total change in the synoptic evolution

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wouldn't have expected that at this range...but the model does blow

this is laughable. complete change in the synoptic evolution

lmao worlds apart here. this is as big of a shift as you'll see at this range

CMC is significantly improved with the heights over the PAC NW

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Taken with a grain of salt for now...but the trend of the JV models at 12z seems to be burying the trailing energy offshore a little west which is helping the ridging in between the two. We'll see if the varsity team follows suit.

yup, ICON was a pretty nice improvement

the key here with this weekend’s threat is getting the ULL over the NW US to buckle the Pacific flow. this EPS run does a much better job at this, allowing for ridging to push into the Plains and help amplify everything downstream

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Why post the control? The mean is a nice improvement.

the key here is getting the ULL over the NW US to buckle the Pacific flow. this EPS run does a much better job at this, allowing for ridging to push into the Plains and help amplify everything downstream

that small improvement over the Pacific leads to a much larger improvement over the OH Valley... this is almost back to where we were at 12z yesterday

again, the key here is getting the ULL over the NW US to buckle the Pacific flow. this does a much better job at this, allowing for ridging to push into the Plains and help amplify everything downstream

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Big improvement coming on 6z eps, left over pac love phases in with pac energy which allows PNA ridge to pump a little better in front…. That helps main shortwave dig better



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trying to resolve that chaotic Pacific flow is going to be absolute hell for modeling

ECMWF looks a bit better with more separation between the ULL and S/W of interest... more ridging in the SW US as well. we need the ULL to buckle and create a semblance of a +PNA if we want any chance for a larger storm here

EPS is doing the same... good to see that trend reverse

47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There is about as strong a signal as can be at those leads for a storm around the 20th and given the pattern progression that one might be our best chance regardless of the date. Yes I know our climo is deteriorating daily. 

in terms of climo, just from a statistical standpoint, the odds of seeing anything more than plowable on the week of the 20-27th are about the same as the 13-20th. the dynamic outcomes of the seasonal transition probably outweigh the sun angle stuff. it's really the week of the 27th into April when things fall off a cliff

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll wager a guess considering the silence...lol

they were good, just not enough. GFS has been absolutely lost with this setup, though

FWIW the ICON made a really nice improvement with the PNA 

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Look at last nights run with PNA pushing towards the Idaho sweet spot vs latest 18z. The 6z eps this morning ticked negatively as well I just left it out. If that trend continues I wouldn’t be shocked if this ULL closes off and shoots across PA (depending on its initial latitude) and straight out to sea.

I’m rooting for a MECS/HECS as much as the next guy, trust me on that one, but these aren’t trends I’d like to see personally. Here’s to a good 00z, long way to go…


It’s just not a coincidence we’re seeing a weaker wave run after run today on the EPS with this PNA response.

12z looked great today, though. not seeing the issue there

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

18z eps in general is a much weaker vort pass, really getting screwed by the PNA. Still time to revert back, but this winter what can go wrong usually freaking does….

18z eps vs 12



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it’s one run, this is 6 days out, and this is still a strong signal. jeez