brooklynwx99

GEFS is unreal

WOW

GEFS is about to go insane. better ridging out west leads to better angular momentum for the NS vort and phasing is more evident on the mean

the phasing is as clear as day on a five day mean

jesus CHRIST

EPS made a significant jump towards a more amped solution. PNA ridging better, leading to more favorable momentum of the NS piece as well as a slower, deeper initial trough

EPS made a significant jump towards a more amped solution. PNA ridging better, leading to more favorable momentum of the NS piece as well as a slower, deeper initial trough

EPS made a significant jump towards a more amped solution. PNA ridging better, leading to more favorable momentum of the NS piece as well as a slower, deeper initial trough

GEFS is significantly more amplified. toss the OP

GEFS much more amplified

GEFS is much more amplified. toss the OP

GEFS is going against the OP, everything looks better

GEFS is generally a lot more favorable. better amplification of the PNA ridge allows for the downstream trough axis to shift W and dig 

GEFS is generally a lot more favorable. better amplification of the PNA ridge allows for the downstream trough axis to shift W and dig

GEFS is generally a lot more favorable. better amplification of the PNA ridge allows for the downstream trough axis to shift W 

GEFS is a lot better than 00z... better alignment and amplification of the PNA ridge and it results in a much deeper trough

this will certainly result in a more favorable surface output

GEFS is a lot better than 00z... better alignment and amplification of the PNA ridge and it results in a much deeper trough

this will certainly result in a more favorable surface output

GEFS is a lot better than 00z... better alignment and amplification of the PNA ridge and it results in a much deeper trough

this will certainly result in a more favorable surface output

it's a day 6 OP run

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

If this storm lives up to it’s potential, it will be measured in feet, not inches and it would be a widespread area too. From what I see there is both very strong northern stream energy and a very strong southern stream energy. There are like 4-5 pieces of energy, and if even 2 of them phase it’s a big storm. If everything phases, in my opinion the low will deepen even more than the models are saying right now, possibly all the way to the 940s or even 930s. I’ve never seen so many pieces of energy that strong so close together on the models, last time we got a low that deepened to the 960s (mid March 2018), the much of the region saw 18-24 inches with isolated 24-30 totals with blizzard conditions. We had a monster blizzard with a low in the 960s, if it gets down to the 940s or 930s which could happen if this maximizes it’s potential, there is a very real chance of a widespread 40-48 inches with an isolated 48-60. That is what a low that gets down to the 930s that stalls over the cape would do. Due to how many pieces of energy there are and how strong each piece is, there is a lot of room for error in my opinion. Even if only 2-3 pieces phase, if it comes up the coast that’s still a huge storm. 

the elusive five stream phase

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

What do you make of the separation between the TPV in Quebec and the sw in the SE US? More evident with the new run just wondering what implications might be either way.

probably less confluence over SE Canada, which may allow for a bit more weakness in the heights, opening up an inland runner possibility. however, I think a suppressed solution due to a late phase / sheared energy is a much more likely way to fail here

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

That’s what I needed to see 

thanks !!

spread? - if not too much to ask

no problem! only goes to 144 so the SLPs aren't of much use, especially given the slightly slower solution

EPS is much improved out west. less of a kicker, which leads to a deeper, farther W trough as a result

EPS is much improved out west. less of a kicker, which leads to a deeper, farther W trough as a result

EPS is much improved out west. less of a kicker, which leads to a deeper, farther W trough as a result