baroclinic_instability

Cyclonic beauty south of the Aleutians.

The dry airstream of the upper PV intruded last evening over Anchorage, giving us an hour of glorious sunlight and blue skies as the back edge of the storm moved out.

Storm in rapid intensification mode, down to 981 based on surface obs near the Ak Pen, will drop into the upper 960s before all is said and done. NWS Anchorage has unleashed the hurricane strength wind warning for portions of the marine zones. Looking like a Miller A Nor'easter on satellite....similar setup as those storms.

Weather pron, ECMWF caves to NCEP guidance, deepens a strong bent-back surface occlusion in Bristol Bay. NAM Hi-res 4 km backs it up. Even tiny track differences yield massive pressure changes/wind field changes that can completely screw up local terrain influences. Doesn't get much better than this. Great way to start fall, can't wait for the true beasts pushing 940 hpa.

Haha, Turnagain Arm winds are awesome. Classic true gap wind where, in SE flow, the air mass literally is blocked on the windward side of the very dense and large coastal ranges/Chugach Range, creating high pressure and accelerating down the inlet, reaching peak wind status at the end. It just so happens the end of the inlet is 5 miles SE of Anchorage, so the wind will go from 30 MPH to 90 MPH in literally less than 5 miles. You can see the Turnagain Arm in the image above with the graphics.

Another hurricane force wind event in and around Anchorage. This one will mostly be relegated to the mountains, but still, a great opportunity to chase some winds!

Turnagain Arm near Anchorage during a rare bluebird day.

Another day, another storm in AK. 975 lows up here are a walk in the park it seems. I have a love/hate relationship with weather up here. I love the constant action and the extreme challenges, but it always seems to rain on my days off.

Definitely early October...the longer you wait the worse it gets storm wise. Even Fairbanks will get socked in with clouds in the interior for long periods of time.

Not yet here, but the mtns have seen snow down to 4500 feet. By the end of this storm...snow levels will drop below 3500 feet!

The pain comes early in AK. Gorgeous WCb stretching all the way back to Japan.

It has been wonderful overall. The weather has been exceptionally cool and somewhat wet since I have been here (the last 5 weeks), but I can't complain coming from Nebraska where it was a daily torchfest full of 90 and 100 degree days. As for wanting to get away, I totally understand. I am not a big fan of masses of humanity, and I need to get away on occasion. Anchorage itself is not all that great (a lot of people and traffic), but you are so close to wilderness that it is totally worth it. I lived in SLC, UT for a bit, and I didn't like it at all since the urban corridor is so populated and confined to a small valley. You can indeed get "away" into wilderness, but even there it is hard to find seclusion unless you drive quite aways from SLC (the Uintas, for instance). Farther south is better, but still quite a few tourists. CO is nice too, but if you truly want to get away, you need to go deep into the mountains. The Front Range itself is very crowded since so many people are trekking west, and Denver is an obvious choice. If you have any questions about AK, give me a message.

Amazing weekend around anchorage, taking advantage of the rare nice days we get this summer. We are losing almost 6 mins of light a day, and we are entering the wettest part of the year climatologically. Picture from Blacktail Rock Peaks near Eagle River.

Still been a cool summer, but had a gorgeous day today, bluebird in Anchorage. Heading back into the Chugach along the Seward Highway, it is seemingly always cloudy back there as Pacific moisture ascends the coastal ranges in east/southeast flow. Still a beautiful evening.

You are in Vancouver now? Post some pics from the area, I always wanted to go there.

After 3 days of gloom and clouds, finally a break this evening. Was out hiking in the Chugach front range when the final bit of marine layer moisture pushed inland.

Thanks! I am happy to be here. Don't worry, once I get settled in here I will be posting more again. It doesn't help there hasn't been anything to talk about anyways with the craptastic weather pattern across the lower 48.

Took a hike near Lake Eklutna this afternoon. It is a glacial lake that actually is used for city water in Anchorage. Just a gorgeous day in Alaska today, the lake wasn't too shabby either.

Still touring the area around Anchorage. A few pics from my phone. First pic from the Eagle River Valley northeast of ANC, the second from the Chugach along the eastern edge of the Anchorage bowl. Still getting used to full light at 10 PM.

How is the heat treating you? I was glad to leave the 100+ degree heat, lol. 60s here feels like heaven.

I moved here as a journey met. Will be here for a while, excited and incredibly intimidated. All the pattern recognition of the lower 48 is gone. Fells like starting all over again

Well I am officially in Alaska now. About time to revive this thread. I would say something weather savvy, but I know nothing about Alaska weather. It is going to be a process. A couple pictures from the Chugach.

In general yes, but this can be deceiving because certain storms can exhibit what seems to be a vertically stacked config but are actualy undergoing rapid cyclogenesis. Instant occlusion storms are an example where the surface cyclone can undergo rapid intensification well after the storm has stacked/occulded at the surface.as the main surface low "bends" westward. Intense marine cyclones like the Shapiro-Keyser model with seclusions. A great example is vertical stretching of a deep PV anomaly interacting with a moist/warm low level baroclinic zone. This type of cyclogenesis happens often on the lee side of the Rockies as deep PV's can stretch vertically rapidly intensify given the right low level thermal environment. See the April 14-15th 2011 severe weather outbreak/blizzard.

Funny thing about this storm...NAM was by far (if I remember correctly) one fo the best guidance in terms of rapidly bombing that surface low and developing that warm sector moist convection and wrapping it into the deform band. That storm had a trop fold I believe.

Yes, you bring up a good point. I do think individuals should at least have a little numerical modeling/programming experience before they discredit the model completely. From a meteorologist standpoint, even we should not "bash" the models, but some level of criticism is not only ok but actually useful to both devs/users. I try and stray away from outright "bashing" since I am well aware of how incredible numerical modeling really is. The fact we can simulate weather with relative skill out to day 6 is simply incredible, and it is a nod to human ingenuity (especially the data assimilation aspect). What bothers me are the individuals who bash the models and use them as an excuse for their own busted forecasts when they never put any thought into it to begin with. Weenies with zero experience in anything related to the physics of the atmosphere or numerical modeling who mindlessly bash the models are also especially egregious. That said, certain models, under certain circumstances, truly do have limited utility and can, in some cases, be more harmful than good.