baroclinic_instability

Oh yes. in 24 hours this hurricane force warm seclusion will be rocking the GOA possibly sub 950 hpa. Close to cat2 strength were this tropical.

Hurricane force 950 bomb is coming. Looking like anywhere from 40-45 hpa pressure drop over 24 hours.

One of the videos from when I launched a radiosonde in moderate winds at Cold Bay before getting promoted/transferring to Texas. At the time we had southeast winds of 38G46KT.

A lovely day on King Cove. Gusts to 81 MPH.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=PAVC&banner=gmap&raw=0

A break in the rain today provided for perfection on top of Denali. Multi-stack lenticulars were incredible. The rest are here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/36776-denali-the-alaska-range-and-lenticulars-on-a-perfect-bluebird-day/#entry1756512

Perfection. Best cyclone I have seen all year.

Cyclonic beauty south of the Aleutians.

The dry airstream of the upper PV intruded last evening over Anchorage, giving us an hour of glorious sunlight and blue skies as the back edge of the storm moved out.

Storm in rapid intensification mode, down to 981 based on surface obs near the Ak Pen, will drop into the upper 960s before all is said and done. NWS Anchorage has unleashed the hurricane strength wind warning for portions of the marine zones.

Looking like a Miller A Nor'easter on satellite....similar setup as those storms.

Weather pron, ECMWF caves to NCEP guidance, deepens a strong bent-back surface occlusion in Bristol Bay. NAM Hi-res 4 km backs it up. Even tiny track differences yield massive pressure changes/wind field changes that can completely screw up local terrain influences. Doesn't get much better than this. Great way to start fall, can't wait for the true beasts pushing 940 hpa.

great googly moogly. From the NWS:

Saturday Night: Showers. Lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Southeast wind 35 to 50 mph with local gusts to 65 mph. Along turnagain arm and higher elevations...southeast wind 70 to 85 mph with gusts to 110 mph after midnight.

Sunday: Rain likely. Highs in the lower to mid 50s. Southeast wind 35 to 50 mph with local gusts to 65 mph. Along turnagain arm and higher elevations...southeast wind 70 to 85 mph with gusts to 110 mph.

Like how they casually throw in the "gusts to 110 mph". Pretty chuckle-icious.

Haha, Turnagain Arm winds are awesome. Classic true gap wind where, in SE flow, the air mass literally is blocked on the windward side of the very dense and large coastal ranges/Chugach Range, creating high pressure and accelerating down the inlet, reaching peak wind status at the end. It just so happens the end of the inlet is 5 miles SE of Anchorage, so the wind will go from 30 MPH to 90 MPH in literally less than 5 miles. You can see the Turnagain Arm in the image above with the graphics.

Another hurricane force wind event in and around Anchorage. This one will mostly be relegated to the mountains, but still, a great opportunity to chase some winds!

Turnagain Arm near Anchorage during a rare bluebird day.

Another day, another storm in AK. 975 lows up here are a walk in the park it seems. I have a love/hate relationship with weather up here. I love the constant action and the extreme challenges, but it always seems to rain on my days off.

I'm thinking of flying up to Fairbanks in late October to hopefully catch the Auroras. With the trend towards el nino this fall, how will that play out for the start to the snow season up there? I was looking at some of the F6's for Fairbanks and it appears the snow generally doesn't start to accumulate until the last week of October. Ideally, I'd like to fly up there for that brief period where it's not bitterly cold, there's still some daylight, a bit of snow on the ground, yet good weather for potential Aurora viewing. Perhaps it's pie in the sky, but is October good for that, or would November be better?

Definitely early October...the longer you wait the worse it gets storm wise. Even Fairbanks will get socked in with clouds in the interior for long periods of time.

any snow yet?

Not yet here, but the mtns have seen snow down to 4500 feet. By the end of this storm...snow levels will drop below 3500 feet!

The pain comes early in AK.

Gorgeous WCb stretching all the way back to Japan.

hey BI, how have you been? learning to forecast all over again? how's AK? I've been needing a change...I've been really thinking about CO, UT, and lately AK...Will never say anything bad about MA cause it's my state and I grew up here, but it's so urban it drives me nuts...

keep posting pics, the beauty of that state is just unfathomable!

It has been wonderful overall. The weather has been exceptionally cool and somewhat wet since I have been here (the last 5 weeks), but I can't complain coming from Nebraska where it was a daily torchfest full of 90 and 100 degree days.

As for wanting to get away, I totally understand. I am not a big fan of masses of humanity, and I need to get away on occasion. Anchorage itself is not all that great (a lot of people and traffic), but you are so close to wilderness that it is totally worth it. I lived in SLC, UT for a bit, and I didn't like it at all since the urban corridor is so populated and confined to a small valley. You can indeed get "away" into wilderness, but even there it is hard to find seclusion unless you drive quite aways from SLC (the Uintas, for instance). Farther south is better, but still quite a few tourists. CO is nice too, but if you truly want to get away, you need to go deep into the mountains. The Front Range itself is very crowded since so many people are trekking west, and Denver is an obvious choice.

If you have any questions about AK, give me a message.

Amazing weekend around anchorage, taking advantage of the rare nice days we get this summer. We are losing almost 6 mins of light a day, and we are entering the wettest part of the year climatologically. Picture from Blacktail Rock Peaks near Eagle River.

Still been a cool summer, but had a gorgeous day today, bluebird in Anchorage. Heading back into the Chugach along the Seward Highway, it is seemingly always cloudy back there as Pacific moisture ascends the coastal ranges in east/southeast flow. Still a beautiful evening.

Series of tstms blowing through here currently, torrential rain, probably 30-50 mph winds, frequent lightning...nice.

You are in Vancouver now? Post some pics from the area, I always wanted to go there.

After 3 days of gloom and clouds, finally a break this evening. Was out hiking in the Chugach front range when the final bit of marine layer moisture pushed inland.

glad you made it safe! hope you find that you love AK and the job! good luck and looking forward to your pics and posts!!! winter comes fast up there...good luck!

Glad you made the transition OK Baroclinic Instability. Looking forward to your reports this winter. Tom Skilling loves to take Alaska vacations and talks frequently about it on WGN weather. Continue to drop in the Plains and Lakes forums when things get interesting down here. We certainly appreciate your expertise.

Thanks! I am happy to be here. Don't worry, once I get settled in here I will be posting more again. It doesn't help there hasn't been anything to talk about anyways with the craptastic weather pattern across the lower 48.

Took a hike near Lake Eklutna this afternoon. It is a glacial lake that actually is used for city water in Anchorage. Just a gorgeous day in Alaska today, the lake wasn't too shabby either.

Still touring the area around Anchorage. A few pics from my phone.

First pic from the Eagle River Valley northeast of ANC, the second from the Chugach along the eastern edge of the Anchorage bowl. Still getting used to full light at 10 PM.

You'll enjoy it bud. You're up there and now I'm down here. Seems we tend to move about the same time....lol.

How is the heat treating you? I was glad to leave the 100+ degree heat, lol. 60s here feels like heaven.