LVLion77

It is so rare and fascinating to see something like this happen without orographic lift, lake effect, etc.

Wow! There must be widespread roof collapse issues up there. It is winding down but that will end up being around 40” of wet snow. Unbelievable.

It’s still snowing in Providence!! 33” thus far. Damn New Englanders have too much of the winter fun.

The late February sun is brutal. It will all be gone by late tomorrow.

Weird question, but I would consider area to be the criteria for sure.

They did, but they got more right than wrong versus NWS.

And furthermore, I think AccuWeather handled the storm much better than NWS. And don’t get me wrong, I’ve seen it go the other way plenty of times as well. NWS stubbornly held onto bad predictions in a huge swath of this region when we amateurs could see it was never going to verify. Earlier in the event, you could see where the banding was setting up. I believe it was the 11 PM update last night that NWS posted an additional 4 to 12 inches for the Lehigh Valley, which was just pure bullheaded stubbornness.

Thank you. Yes, if you look at the geographical territory of the NWS office and compare versus the final forecast map you posted, a relatively small percentage of the area verified. I still believe at least 75% of the forecast area was significantly lower than predictions. Sometimes on forums like this, the what happened in my backyard mantra, clouds people’s assessment of forecast accuracy, both under and over.

I’m not salty at all. It was an added bonus on an above average year. But factual reality is that likely 3/4 of their geographical area under performed their forecast to a very significant degree.

I would agree with the difficult nature of predicting these storms, but I highly disagree with that assessment that they predicted this well. A very high percentage of Mount Holly‘s forecast geographical area greatly underperformed their Sunday forecast. .

It was modeled well in terms of there being a major coastal storm and significant accumulations, but I think huge chunks of Mount Holly‘s territory underperformed, in some cases rather dramatically. The jersey shore, northern DE, and much of Mount Holly‘s area in PA dramatically underperformed their predictions. .

AC is a bit lower than I would have predicted. Perhaps PA, NJ, DE actually underperformed overall vs a number of the catastrophic level forecasts? I cannot see wrap around Snow giving much more meaningful accumulation in the region. New England does seem to be getting hammered. I’ll be interested to see the final totals up there.

I have measured on average 5” in multiple spots, unless wind or compaction slightly skewed my numbers. For the major services, Accuweather and TWC nailed the LV. NWS bombed the forecast here, even through later updates when it was certain the heavier banding was not making it here. There were always gonna be winners and losers with this one. Happy for the folks to the south and east who did really well!

I wonder if we can do better when the bands pivot from the northeast. The flow from the southeast is weakening a bit for us over the last 30-45 minutes.

The NWS update for the Lehigh Valley is rather interesting - an additional 4”-12”. Don’t recall ever seeing that specific spread ever before.