LVLion77

58f with steady rain this am and up to 1.17” for the event. We did have some heavier rain for a bit. It looks like we’re in this wet pattern for a while with only brief breaks over the next week. .

0.43” rain throughout the day, despite an unimpressive radar representation for the most part. The trees and vegetation are doing very well this month, but we still have a longer term precipitation deficit in these parts. Thankfully we are chipping away with that. .

It is a strange spring with such variability of precip totals over short distances. You are either in it or not this spring. .

1.70”. Finally got an overperformer here. .

1.31” overnight thus far, which beats my 1.00” all last weekend. Mighty cool at only 53.6F this am. .

59f - Moderate rain -0.16” so far. It will be interesting to see how the precipitation continues to develop along this frontal boundary. .

Well said, and I largely agree with everything you’re saying. The forecast have been increasingly inaccurate over time. Like you said, it is a very broad type of forecast. And we are in this specific area of the valley in a very interesting micro climate. Overall, we get a boatload of rain on a yearly basis. We are either getting flooded out, or we go into dry spells as we have recently. Today, even small components of the forecast were very inaccurate. We kept the stable east wind flow right up until about 3 PM, which continued to work it’s magic to keep us very dry. I just finished work and I’m coming home soon, but I’ve been following the radar as much as I could this afternoon and I’m not sure we got more than a 10th of an inch at home. .

Well, Sunday and Monday were highly inaccurate forecasts with 0.08” yesterday and a 0.00 today. Still convinced the east wind has stabilized the atmosphere to the point that heavy showers and tstorms are unable to form in this quadrant of this system. We go to a more southerly flow on Tuesday, which should be more conducive to heavier rain.

I agree that topography has a big role as well here as you described, and that influence is year-round. The Atlantic stabilizing influence is likely only prevalent here in the spring when the ocean temp is generally in the 40s and 50s am low pressure is sitting to our west. I don’t think the computer models grasp that very well. In the fall and winter it is the opposite situation in that easterly flow is conducive to more precipitation, considering that the ocean is a lot warmer than the land at that point. .

Just an observation. Each time the precip forecast missed badly this spring, like today, we had an easterly wind here in the LV. I am no meteorologist and I could be very wrong, but this time of the year that east wind equals a cool stable flow off the Atlantic. Perhaps that is the factor that blows up a number of these forecast? Upstate NY seems to have gotten our forecasted heavy rains today. We are forecasted to have east winds Monday as well. .

Surprised to see the sun this evening. 0.08” during the day from sprinkles and light showers. Precip forecasts for tomorrow and Tuesday are significantly reduced now. I wonder if the accuracy of forecasts will increase with advanced AI.

Yep, today thus far has been a total flop - 0.03” since midnight with drizzle currently and a nowcast radar that shows much of the same the rest of the day. Again the best action is to the west… several hundred miles west. Perhaps tomorrow will be our day? .

Looks like the activity is coming to an end for sw Lehigh County this evening - 0.60” today and 0.73” for the weekend thus far. Wish I had a little bit more rain tonight but really happy with the lightning show. There are definitely more opportunities coming in the next couple days.

Unfortunately, it looks like a lot of the action has stayed to the north and west today. I thought the sunshine would be stabilize us enough to see some action popping. There may be something looking to form in Maryland at this point, so we shall see.

I am just a few miles away from you and missed that first thundershower by literally 1/4 of a mile. I got a subsequent brief heavy shower a bit later for a quick but paltry 0.13”. Should be lots of opportunities to see good rain totals this weekend.