Logan11

Beautiful. I may head down to a rental property we have in northern Ulster County tomorrow and help the tenant shovel. Must be getting bad there now also.

Well one can't get too greedy. LOL Snowcane type event is very rare. I imagine 12-20 east of the river and maybe 12-16 from Orange to Ulster is realistic...tapered down to 10 or 12 at NY/PA/NJ triple point.

I believe the 18Z NAM still has about .75" at KALB....

I expect it to make a renewed push up. They had snow in Delmar a half hour ago. BGM radar shows better the snow in the western Cats and Poconos etc. ALB radar does a very poor job in that area maybe due to the Catskills peaks wrecking the radar range . Anyway I think the overall pivot nnw will keep up.

But the real show in the HV should be about 10 PM to 6 AM I believe....

Hey I wonder if the former "Flurries" from Rochester is around now? Speak up if you are here. He was going to be moving to Dutchess County this year and we teased him about the lower snowfall. But now it would appear that his move has paid off ..at least for this storm.

The latest RUC has an extremely optimum position of the 700 mb low. It wraps the deformation banding across all of Eastern NY and reaches as far west as BGM. The surface low sits near Montauk ultimately. It is so wound up that most of SNE gets into a dry slot situation eventually.

The 0Z GFS just looks like an optimal track for the biggest snows in the HV overall. I was a little surprised that qpf amounts tapered so fast west of the HV because it pushes the deformation pretty far west into Central NY at its furthest extent. If it takes that track, I think some of this heavy banding in the deformation is being underdone in terms of the qpf that will actually be realized. The time to really watch is 30-36 hours when the best banding should be sitting over the HV and Catskills. The qpf is underdone IMO.

About 30 to 40 miles southeast as it makes the closest pass to LI. Maybe within model error, but that small shift moved areas west of the HV from 1.25" at 18Z to .75" now.... But it's only one model.

Here are your current watches for the entire region as of noon: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1158 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 NYZ047>054-VTZ013>015-260100- /O.EXA.KALY.WS.A.0009.101226T1800Z-101227T1700Z/ SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY- SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY- WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM- EASTERN WINDHAM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON... ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA... MECHANICVILLE...WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY... HOOSICK FALLS...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE... BRATTLEBORO...WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS 1158 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS: SCHOHARIE COUNTY...CAPITAL REGION OF NEW YORK...RENSSELAER COUNTY AND ALL OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. * HAZARDS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...AND GUSTY WINDS. * ACCUMULATIONS: 7 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. * TIMING: LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ON ROADS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN THE SNOW. STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE DRIVING TREACHEROUS DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * WINDS: NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1158 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ058>061-063>066-260100- /O.CON.KALY.WS.A.0009.101226T1800Z-101227T1700Z/ NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE- SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA- EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS- EASTERN DUTCHESS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD... TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE... LENOX...HOUSATONIC...HUNTER...TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CATSKILL... COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON... CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY... KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ... POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS... MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...MILLERTON 1158 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS: EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. * HAZARDS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...GUSTY WINDS WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. * ACCUMULATIONS: GREATER THAN 7 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. * TIMING: LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ON ROADS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED IN THE SNOW. STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE DRIVING TREACHEROUS DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * WINDS: NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1052 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 ...A MAJOR WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176-178-260000- /O.CON.KOKX.WS.A.0005.101226T1800Z-101227T1800Z/ WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN- EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION- EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER- SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS- SOUTHERN QUEENS- 1052 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY... AND NEW YORK CITY. * HAZARDS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH GUSTY WINDS. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ON ROADS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED. STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES...AND WILL MAKE DRIVING TREACHEROUS. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. * WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH... BECOMING NORTH 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS NEW YORK CITY AND NEAR THE COAST. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

You know years ago there was a young guy that called himself Codman from around SWF (or so)....are any of you him with a new name? Or heard of him... I was just curious. He was on the BB's and IRC for a long time.

ECMWF still looks like warning criteria for your area though taken verbatim. Andy made comments on it in the Upstate thread.

I dunno if I can sit through a radio show this soon. Also they won't have the benefit of the ECMWF at that hour and what good will it be to analyze the GFS in it's "brain dead" mode right now. Not saying anything as extreme as the Euro will happen, but I think the GFS is in its dead zone of losing the storm right now.

You guys around Orange County must have been closer to that snow/ice demarcation in that winter of 93-94. I got 95% snow from those series of storms in Saugerties, but I remember the city was having mostly ice. None of those storms were huge in a KU sense, but I think the biggest at my place was about 15 inches. I remember one crazy day where we had an overunning event and a cold high seeping low level cold down the HV. We had a snow event where it started snowing at like -8F in Saugerties and peaked at like 10-15F. SWF was also like 10F, but they actually had FZRA at least for awhile. NYC was an ice storm.

From what I have seen of the Euro - this is the dream scenario for the Lower/Mid Hudson Valley and nice for the Upper Valley also. It does have 2/1978 written on it somewhat and that was the best storm I was ever in while in the Mid Hudson Valley. My Dad worked at IBM POU and it took him about 4 hours to get the 20 miles up to near Kingston where he had to sleep on a guys floor. That was epic...love to see that again.

I'll up my estimate and say we are approaching 1 inch here now..where it doesn't blow away.... In my open areas it is just unreal with the intense wind and horizontal light to moderate snowfall. This is hard core winter at its best despite only minor snowfall. 14.5F. I just walked 400 feet back to the horses and they are tough...nosing around through the powder snow looking for hay or whatever..oblivious to the conditions, but they do have thick winter coats now.

16 here with light snow and wind. Heavy coating ...probably .3 or .4, though hard to tell when it is blowing horizontally. Echoes look better over toward the Upper Hudson Valley.

Some kind of feud among the powers that be..... Marcus pulled it down in a tiff with the others. Obviously plans had been afoot though because they had this new board up in very short order. Glad you made it here.... think we first crossed paths in the 90's on these boards and IRC. ..back when I was in Saugerties.... -1F here now in Knox.

The Catskills high peaks (meaning 3500'+) begin in central/western Ulster County...slightly below the latitude of Kingston for reference. They taper down a lot below Peekamoose and that southwest corner of Ulster County (IE where 52 crosses) is just hilly. Bigger mountains ...draw a line from New Paltz (in the HV) to Liberty and it's all north of that line. Of course you also have the Shawangunk Ridge which stands in the way....

The Catskills high peaks (meaning 3500'+) begin in central/western Ulster County...slightly below the latitude of Kingston for reference. They taper down a lot below Peekamoose and that southwest corner of Ulster County (IE where 52 crosses) is just hilly. Bigger mountains ...draw a line from New Paltz (in the HV) to Liberty and it's all north of that line. Of course you also have the Shawangunk Ridge which stands in the way....

Glad to see you guys cashed in a bit on this LES event. 5.3" cumulative up here...very enjoyable since I'd never get more than flurries from the lake when I lived in Saugerties. You folks in the Lower HV actually do better (on those rare occasions) than the Mid HV. I attribute that to the fact that you don't have the highest Catskills acting as a wall just to the west. From north of SWF to about Catskill/Hudson the mountains dry almost all of it up.

Snow is diminishing to flurries here now. LES that has been affecting us seems to be falling apart for now. 3 inches fell overnight though a lot will blow away in the fields here. 20F.

31 and windy here now. Laying water freezing up. Two cold days in a row (high of 30 yesterday and 37 today..at 8 am), but a lovely rain event in between.

Very nice. I think that batch won't really get here, but maybe overnight tonight it gets interesting. 29.7F here at 2 PM.

It's a brief shot, but feels wintry here today with a low of 21F earlier. I don't think we'll get out of the 30's today.