Logan11

Happy New to all of you also. It hit 42 here today with mostly cloudy skies. 38 now. About 4 to 5 inches of wet snow left in the undisturbed woods. In the open areas plenty of areas with nothing and then the drifts.....biggest about 30 inches. That's where all the snow on my back lawn went.

I see what you mean. Course I was only talking about for the absolute emergencies like the pregnant woman that waited 8 hours in labor, etc. IE where people are dying because nobody can get there. Is

You know the block really never leaves completely up near Greenland. Unfortunately it still allows a cutter on Saturday, but this isn't going to allow the kind of extreme torch that might otherwise have occurred. Also the deep snow pack means it can really decouple at night ..big time inversion. I suspect quite a bit of snow pack survives this mini-torch.

Sure...I recall numerous snowfalls where people have been stranded on roads such as the Thruway Upstate where they use snowmobiles...often volunteers. This takes me way back to 1978 when my Dad was stuck between POU and Kingston in that blizzard and they received emergency assistance on the Thruway from snowmobilers. Ultimately they freed him up and he had to spend the night on the floor of one of his fellow car poolers house in Kingston. LOL. This was the old energy crisis days and they had a five guy carpool thing going to get down to work at IBM POU.

There is one simple cheap thing they could do to get paramedics through at least in an absolute emergency situation like we had during the blizzard.. Snowmobiles. Why doesn't city spend a little money and buy a fleet of maybe 50 snowmobiles.... They could get through any of the snow and at least get emergency responders to sick people, pregnant women, etc.

Bottom line is ...Governor Rendell was right about the whimpification of America. LOL You live in a Northeast city ... guess what...it snows and you deal with it. You have to expect to be inconvenienced after a 20"+ Blizzard! You cannot expect NYC to have the resources to make life normal within 24 hours after such a storm. And it simply wouldn't be cost effective for NYC to even attempt to be prepared to make things normal so fast after such a blizzard. Its not worth it when you only get a few storms like that per decade. (yes two this year, but that was a freak thing) There would be no point in developing that level of "snow fighting" infrastructure for infrequent events like this. You gotta look at the cost/benefit analysis.

I guess people can't grasp the concept that their lives may be disrupted for a few days following the 5th or 6th greatest snowstorm in NYC history. It was on a par with the Blizzard of 1888 in snowfall with 20" in CP, 24" in Brooklyn and 29" in Staten Island. But this fell in about 20 hours whereas that storm was over a a few days. You can't fault the people with airline tickets because they had pre-booked and were stuck, but otherwise people were warned simply to stay home during this snowstorm so it is their own fault if they got stranded somewhere.

Posthumous report ..so to speak.... I measured 10 inches yesterday in Saugerties at our cottage there. The open areas were very blown off, but back in the woods I found an undisturbed spot. Then I shoveled out what the plow guy didn't get to... It was 22 there at 4 PM. Despite 7 new inches, my lawn here in Knox is largely devoid of snow now....kinda sad, but I knew this open ridge would be windy. Most was transported 500+ feet to the hedgerows. We have been getting nuisance lake stuff filling the air with flakes all day...just fresh dustings. 25F outside.

I was a bit far northwest for the best band but I came in with about 7 to 8 inches so not bad for a fringe event. It's blown to bits now, but I went down into the woods to measure ..about 10" on the ground there, but some is old snow. Extreme wind chill now with the blowing and drifting - actual temperature of 9F. ALB area itself around 10" give or take....... Yes here is the jackpot zone for the mid/upper HV and adjacent NE. .....which began about 25-30 miles to my east/southeast: Connecticut Litchfield County -- Precipitation Reports Canaan 14.00" Massachusetts Berkshire County -- Precipitation Reports Alford, MA 20.00" Pittsfield 16.00" Lanesborough 15.00" Clarksburg 15.00" Pittsfield 14.00" New York Columbia County -- Precipitation Reports Kinderhook 17.50" Ghent 20.00" North Chatham 20.25" Taghkanic 19.00" Livingston 16.50" Ancramdale 14.50" Copake 14.00" Chatham Center 16.00" Dutchess County -- Precipitation Reports Pine Plains 25.00" Hopewell Junction 24.00" Greene County -- Precipitation Reports Maplecrest 17.00" Greenville 11.00" Ashland 11.00" Prattsville 11.00" Rensselaer County -- Precipitation Reports Hoosick Falls 16.00" Brunswick 11.00" Vermont Bennington County -- Precipitation Reports Landgrove 18.00" Woodford 20.00" Rutland County -- Precipitation Reports Danby 13.25"

Moderate snow + and 14F here. Finally looks like a snowstorm here. Albany (east side) is getting into the heavy snow band it seems as it pivots west.

At long last moderate snow backing in here from the east. The northwest fringe is continually getting eroded away, but it muscles its way west in fits and stops... I doubt it ever gets west of the central Mohawk Valley. If there is anyone around Saugerties/Catskill let me know whats up. I think I will be heading down in the AM to help clear out our cottage down there.

Beautiful. I may head down to a rental property we have in northern Ulster County tomorrow and help the tenant shovel. Must be getting bad there now also.

Well one can't get too greedy. LOL Snowcane type event is very rare. I imagine 12-20 east of the river and maybe 12-16 from Orange to Ulster is realistic...tapered down to 10 or 12 at NY/PA/NJ triple point.

I believe the 18Z NAM still has about .75" at KALB....

I expect it to make a renewed push up. They had snow in Delmar a half hour ago. BGM radar shows better the snow in the western Cats and Poconos etc. ALB radar does a very poor job in that area maybe due to the Catskills peaks wrecking the radar range . Anyway I think the overall pivot nnw will keep up.

But the real show in the HV should be about 10 PM to 6 AM I believe....

Hey I wonder if the former "Flurries" from Rochester is around now? Speak up if you are here. He was going to be moving to Dutchess County this year and we teased him about the lower snowfall. But now it would appear that his move has paid off ..at least for this storm.

The latest RUC has an extremely optimum position of the 700 mb low. It wraps the deformation banding across all of Eastern NY and reaches as far west as BGM. The surface low sits near Montauk ultimately. It is so wound up that most of SNE gets into a dry slot situation eventually.

The 0Z GFS just looks like an optimal track for the biggest snows in the HV overall. I was a little surprised that qpf amounts tapered so fast west of the HV because it pushes the deformation pretty far west into Central NY at its furthest extent. If it takes that track, I think some of this heavy banding in the deformation is being underdone in terms of the qpf that will actually be realized. The time to really watch is 30-36 hours when the best banding should be sitting over the HV and Catskills. The qpf is underdone IMO.

About 30 to 40 miles southeast as it makes the closest pass to LI. Maybe within model error, but that small shift moved areas west of the HV from 1.25" at 18Z to .75" now.... But it's only one model.

Here are your current watches for the entire region as of noon: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1158 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 NYZ047>054-VTZ013>015-260100- /O.EXA.KALY.WS.A.0009.101226T1800Z-101227T1700Z/ SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY- SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY- WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM- EASTERN WINDHAM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON... ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA... MECHANICVILLE...WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY... HOOSICK FALLS...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE... BRATTLEBORO...WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS 1158 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS: SCHOHARIE COUNTY...CAPITAL REGION OF NEW YORK...RENSSELAER COUNTY AND ALL OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. * HAZARDS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...AND GUSTY WINDS. * ACCUMULATIONS: 7 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. * TIMING: LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ON ROADS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN THE SNOW. STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE DRIVING TREACHEROUS DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * WINDS: NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1158 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ058>061-063>066-260100- /O.CON.KALY.WS.A.0009.101226T1800Z-101227T1700Z/ NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE- SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA- EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS- EASTERN DUTCHESS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD... TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE... LENOX...HOUSATONIC...HUNTER...TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CATSKILL... COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON... CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY... KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ... POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS... MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...MILLERTON 1158 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS: EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. * HAZARDS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...GUSTY WINDS WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. * ACCUMULATIONS: GREATER THAN 7 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. * TIMING: LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ON ROADS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED IN THE SNOW. STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE DRIVING TREACHEROUS DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * WINDS: NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1052 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 ...A MAJOR WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176-178-260000- /O.CON.KOKX.WS.A.0005.101226T1800Z-101227T1800Z/ WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN- EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION- EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER- SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS- SOUTHERN QUEENS- 1052 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY... AND NEW YORK CITY. * HAZARDS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH GUSTY WINDS. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ON ROADS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED. STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES...AND WILL MAKE DRIVING TREACHEROUS. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. * WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH... BECOMING NORTH 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS NEW YORK CITY AND NEAR THE COAST. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

You know years ago there was a young guy that called himself Codman from around SWF (or so)....are any of you him with a new name? Or heard of him... I was just curious. He was on the BB's and IRC for a long time.

ECMWF still looks like warning criteria for your area though taken verbatim. Andy made comments on it in the Upstate thread.

I dunno if I can sit through a radio show this soon. Also they won't have the benefit of the ECMWF at that hour and what good will it be to analyze the GFS in it's "brain dead" mode right now. Not saying anything as extreme as the Euro will happen, but I think the GFS is in its dead zone of losing the storm right now.

You guys around Orange County must have been closer to that snow/ice demarcation in that winter of 93-94. I got 95% snow from those series of storms in Saugerties, but I remember the city was having mostly ice. None of those storms were huge in a KU sense, but I think the biggest at my place was about 15 inches. I remember one crazy day where we had an overunning event and a cold high seeping low level cold down the HV. We had a snow event where it started snowing at like -8F in Saugerties and peaked at like 10-15F. SWF was also like 10F, but they actually had FZRA at least for awhile. NYC was an ice storm.