poolz1

Can already see the pattern breaking down by day 46....uh oh (in Bob's voice) In all seriousness....this was a nice run to come home to. Epic almost doesn't do it justice. The most stable look to the weeklies I have ever seen....in years past even the crap patterns show signs of life somewhere in the run....wall to wall blocking for our meat and potatoes part of met winter.

Several days ago, iirc, the system for this weekend was modeled as a possible brief front end frozen with a low track to the Great Lakes. Not that a cutter cant happen and probably will happen over the next 10 days but with a shifting pattern even ens are having a tough time with systems in the D8-10+

GFS and ICON close off that ridge and are able eject and bundle the energy. So, maybe we are dealing with the euro's tendency to drag it's heels with the energy.

@frd You probably saw this post but I thought is was pretty interesting. We all know there is a lag with these SSW event but seeing it in a graphic helps. Interesting we are right on target with the pattern change roughly 15 days from the strat split. That day 20-35 could be pretty wild with both the AO and NAO relaxing. Hopefully this will be a 40+ day cycle like last year. Showme has been honking at how this looks to be a stable pattern moving forward. Excited to see how this all plays out through the rest of winter.....

I would have thought the ind member would have been better just judging from the MSLP track. 0z had it run over Bermuda...12z was between Bermuda and Hat. We lost the couple tucked solutions from 0z tho...Just my opinion but I would say overall its a move in the right direction.

Thanks...I see what you mean....

H5 vort panel at 138 sure looked like the ns was ready to fully dive in. Odd how there is only interaction when it looked like a phase was imminent....am I looking at it wrong?

Yeah...a pretty extreme look out at the end of the run.

Looks like a traffic jam starting in the Atlantic.... Block it up baby! Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

As good as it looks at D15...it really looks primed to get even better. That Aleutian low is retrograding into a prime spot while ridging is building into GL.

Let's kick this off with a 1/20-21 MECS.....

GFS op want nothing to do with it tho in the beginning stages they are not too far apart at h5. The only thing that lends any credence to the CMC solution is if you loop h5 it sure looks like a similar progression several systems have taken this season. Closed low with upper ridge building over the top....

CMC appears to be a big hit...

Interesting that things are starting to line up with the BOMM forecast from 12/30. This progression would be perfect....

Couldn't agree more....As long as the SOI continues to crash I am done with having the MJO drive the bus

New MJO plots look pretty good. GEFS and Euro agree on a strong push into 8 and then a move into the COD. Here's the euro...getting closer to a decent move into phase 1

Just where we want it when we have our HECS coming thru the SW!

These are 5 day NHEMI. Doesnt mean there hasnt been an improvement with the FV3 on the handling of individual storms. As a casual observer....I havent noticed an improvement. But, these are the only scores I have seen.

Another nice neg in the SOI today... -18.60 I feel like everyone's holding their breath waiting for the next shoe to drop....I am to a certain extent. But, things seem to be evolving nicely. Something to track would be nice to pass the time until after the 20th.

Was thinking the same thing earlier...nj2va and Ralph alluded to the same. I could envision striking out on the front side with the snap then a relax and by the first of Feb we have plenty of cold roaming around the Mid lats and a relaxing pattern.

We are all jonesing for something to track... D9 look doable but difficult and probably frustrating. Seems models are picking up on a D12-14 signal that I think has better potential....

384 op run....but probably indicative of some of the looks we will start seeing as things evolve over the next week or so.

The trend this season has been for models to slow down progression of systems....Have not seen a storm track like the euro has yet this cold season (that I can remember). Weenie optimism

Man...so close to a big hit...

@frd Dont get me wrong...I dont claim to fully grasp some of these things....so, I am happy to be corrected when I spout off something about the SOI...strat or really anything other than longwave patterns! lol Still learning daily but it's what keeps me hooked on this odd hobby. IMO, I think the IO convection is calming down but this sneaky storm forecasted would crash pressures in Darwin and you can see the higher pressures out near Tahiti....thus increasing the easterlies. Who knows tho.....We all know what a forecasted 7+ day hurricane track is like around here. Usually not on the money...