poolz1

I know PSU and Bob have mentioned this several times..But that look at the end of the EPS run with the bagginess off the west coast and a signal that the STJ is undercutting the PNA ridge is money. LR caveats and all...but man that is a nice look.

06z gfs goes bonkers over GL....Seems we are getting some consensus on a stout NAO block that fades into an EPO ridge. But, it could just end up being a ridge bridge longer than what is currently depicted. Also notice a nice uptick in hits as the the NAO fades and EPO takes over. The looks across the board have me drooling! ETA: Trough axis on the LR EPS is sweet. Starts at hr300 and hold through the end of the run.

Little bit of a CAD in that image! Check out the ridging across GL at the same time...

EPS at range looks great for pressing cold and not overwhelming cold. I could care less if the bay freezes over. Nice to see HP in western Can that seems to just linger while nosing SE. GEFS has pretty much the same look.

A decent minor/mod event for the area....hopefully a cheap appetizer for whats to come. @WVclimo Looks like our obs match up pretty well.

Looking at the EPS D10-15 members...a lot of slow moving arctic fronts with waves moving riding the fronts. Some we win and some we dont. Obviously, ens arent going to pick up on a threat like they would if we had a miller A out of the gulf. Again, reminiscent of 14/15.

GEPS has the same idea at 12z...a nice improvement from an already decent 00z run. Hinting at a ridge bridge... ETA...slow typer...Bob beat me to the punch!

Nice mod snow shower currently. Beautiful outside this morning.

Always procrastinate taking down the Xmas lights hoping to see them in the snow. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Finished with 3" on the nose. Like you, that last band was nice... But brief. Temp dropped and nice dendrites for about 30 minutes was the push I needed. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Another localized phenomenon here is the effect that S Mtn has a rain shadow. Its not all of the time but the right SEish wind does dry things out just a bit. I often tell my wife if we hit the lottery we are tearing that mountain down....lol.

475' give or take. .5 miles in either direction elevation is around 550+. Little Antietam Creek flows through our back yard so, its a very localized thing that I have seen many times. It doesnt surprise me you have 4 otg. Once the snow kicked into gear it was heavy for about 45 minutes and then went to mod and at times light for the remainder. Didnt get into anything heavy after the start.

Very nice! Just measured 2.6"....I would assume once you go up just a bit in elevation around me there is probably 3-3.5".

A nice heavy burst to start but back to lt/mod snow currently. Solid coating so far. 33/30

Radar looks like it will start to light up once east of the mountains. Waiting for the 11am update but quite the uptick between 9am and 10am.

Nice seeing storm tracks show up in the precip on RadarScope in SW WV and KY. Radar looks a bit more robust this morning than I expected....

27/23 when I left the house. Mostly cloudy. Will be fun watching I81 traffic cams as the thump moves up from the SW.

Trend so far has been to juice things up just a bit...every bit counts. Though, speed and temps put a ceiling on this it would be nice to see the trend continue. HeRDerPS joins the trend.

Not a bad trend as far as temps go as precip moves in. Could be partially due to the slightly faster onset the euro has at 06z but the panels before show the same trend. The key imo is having the cloud deck already established near or shortly after sunrise....May be tough with such a compact system and this not being an overrunning event. The further WSW you are the better.

Can't seem to get the scan ridge to move ploeward on most op and ens runs.... But, the gfs gets the pattern out of the crapper through retrogression of the PAC ridge. Only reason it is notable imo is the eps showed this as well at 12z. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

@frd Ive been watch that evolution the past few days on the GEFS. If anything, the PV will be no longer stationary....makes a pretty drastic move and stretches somewhat past D10. Not moving too far away from the pole yet on those looks but I am just happy to see something...anything not remain stagnant in the LR. Euro looks to be in agreement thru D10 at least.

I make that my back way to/from work in situations like this. lol While the creak valley has a slushy inch there can be 2-3" up there. A temporary soul soother. It's too bad this didnt move in just before sunrise. Euro has temps in the mid 20s at 7am but 40 by 10am. Maybe a thick cloud deck at sunrise will play out and temps struggle to rise much...long shot imo.

Exactly...even out here I can see how this plays out. Without elevation any accumulation will be in the last hour or two of snow falling....= slushy inch or so on non paved surfaces. Only chance lower elevations have is if this juices up some as we we approach game time. .2" qpf only works if it's cold smoke...

One mid range trend lately is the higher heights over the pole that have been trending stronger. This may give merit to the GEFS idea of a quicker transition as it already has the TPV out of the way when the PAC and or Scan ridge start moving poleward. As amplified as the flow has been so far this cold season it could get fun with cold closer to our doorstep. I dont need epic...just get us back in the hunt.

No event really stands out to me in MBY this year. A few snowstorms, a few good thunder busters, some cold....some heat. What I really noted was what didnt happen this year compared to many recent years. This Spring, Summer and Fall were great for outdoor recreation. Being an avid hiker, camper and especially loving kayak fishing, this spring was the first in many years that the rivers and tributaries were in good fishing shape by mid April. The past few years I havent been on the water before Memorial Day due to the rivers still being trashed by heavy rains. Even the Susquehanna was in great shape by early summer....getting that river to calm down and clear up is a sloooooow process.