aggiegeog

31 minutes ago, Quixotic1 said:

Meh.  It doesn't take much.  Assuming 10:1 ratio a tenth or two of liquid precip would be nice. 

Yep, with the whole column subfreezing it wont take much for a dusting to an inch in N TX. Hoping that the Euro begins to trend to the other models, but I think that areas E of I-35 generally near I-20 will at least get some snow between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning.

Agreed

20 minutes ago, DFWWeather said:

 

The 12z NAM looks dry to me other than some flurries. The ECMWF is just not on board. The problem with this is there is just no moisture. The 500mb pattern is not one that favors snow and ice here. If that little system tracking in from out west could deepen and draw up enough moisture...but unlikely given pattern, especially with Gulf low developing. Those always rob DFW of moisture and we need every bit to make this happen here.

Agreed, this looks to be an I-20 storm focused east of DFW all the way to NC. Temps will be cold enough that we should be able to make the most out of anything that does fall. The nighttime timing should also help.

I am liking this set-up for NE TX. Like always its a close call, but usually we do OK with developing Gulf lows. I have a feeling DFW may be too far west for much accum though with the cold air throughout the column there may be enough for and inch or two there. North of I-20 in NE TX I could see 1-3" with maybe a 4 or 5" amount in a sweet spot (best current guess would be around Marshall for that). 

13 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

Agree. 18z does look changing. But I wonder if this gonna be a good trend? Is still there enough time (4 dayish) for STJ to form for this area?

Never know I guess with Mexico but seems unlikely with ridging along the west coast of Mexico. 

4 hours ago, vwgrrc said:

Probably not for TX. Looks like any precipitation should be very light at this time...  

GFS now coming back on board also. Not seeing any signs of a huge event, but there is a good shot for those north of I-20 to see 2-4". The cold is coming with storminess behind it,  that is a very good snow signal though without a STJ connection it is doubtful that we see anything heavy. 

Looks like the line of storms has verified and is asking for I-35 right now. 

The late week winter storm appears to be coming back on the models as expected. 

Next week she is looking good for winter lovers. Arctic air with a fairly zonal flow allowing for moisture to ride over the surface cold. Sadly it looks more icy than snowy at this point. 

Early January still appears to be the next target for winter weather in this region. 

Looks like today featured sub freezing highs for a large chunk of the state. Highest here was right around 30 with wind child in the 10s for much of the day. Can we reach the mid teens tonight with lighter winds and less clouds? This morning was 21 here.

70s here in East Texas this morning. Front looks like it is through WF and Ardmore. It's gonna be a cold afternoon in North Texas and it would be will into E TX by evening.

Watch out for very cold wind chills in the morning tomorrow, single digits and teens with below zero wind chills in NW Texas.

25 minutes ago, bubba hotep said:

Currently 33 with drizzle... 

Dang close call

Looks like we go from seasonal this week to mild to start the weekend before the bottom falls out late Saturday. Snow possible early Sunday and ice possible next week.

Upper levels setting up beautifully for a cold and snowy patter leading up to Christmas. Details will be fine tuned but this is what we have been dreaming of for months based on analogs. Maybe this will be a warmer but snowier 1983.

Still 37 here with snow on radar all day though nothing has reached the ground.

Models seem to have handled temps and precip very well. Band of light snow stretches from the Permian Basin to East Texas though the eastern half of that is having trouble reaching the ground.

31 minutes ago, ams30721us said:

I don't know if the ASOS is reporting this correctly, but if so it matches up with that moderate band of echoes south of DFW 

Terrell also reports snow, radar shows a band moving east south of I-20.

The RAP and GFS soundings are pretty interesting with below freezing except right at the surface though they show ~70-75% RH throughout the column. The NAM is a couple degrees warmer, but with ~85-90% RH throughout. I would love a combo of those scenarios.

The NAM is so close to a good event, knock temps down even 1 degree throughout the column and we have snow everywhere near I-20.

For some reason I really enjoy watching these type little events evolve on the models. It is a nice borderline system for wintery precip which is always a very tricky forecast. Hopefully some of y'all catch a couple flakes though most will likely be freezing drizzle though if the moisture is as deep as the models show ten maybe some flakes can make it to the ground.

31 minutes ago, DFWWeather said:

12z Model suite have 500mb pattern not conducive for Texas penetration of Arctic air next week. All three, CMC, GFS, and ECMWF show stronger ridging and push the coldest air across the Great Lakes out into Atlantic. I have only looked at 12z GFS operational and it follows with eastern push of cold air.

The operational is flip flopping between all kinds of solutions in the long range, but the ensemble still look cold. Our cold this month will not come from a big upper level trough so unless we have major ridging we will get cold as the -WPO looks to continue and western Canada stays very cold.

6 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

For the CS area or for DFW?

Most likely between there and west.

Sure is looking like the 83 analogs that we have been hesitant to believe are proving true. I still doubt we are quite that cold but a slightly modified version sure looks possible. 

As for current weather the wintery precip potential looks as good as ever according to current models. We won't know how much precip will lag behind in the cold air until it is happening though. We are now getting into the range of the Hi-Res models so we should get a better handle on it as we go through the day.

8 minutes ago, bubba hotep said:

We've gotten lucky in DFW in the past with these sneaky little disturbances that end up overperforming. You've been pretty steadfast that this was a possible solution. Now to track that little vort max to see if will tip its hand early.

These are always tricky, but I have had a feeling that this was not going to be a classic blue norther for a while now though, maybe this will be one of my lucky ones. The trend is good.

1 minute ago, bubba hotep said:

From FWD AFD:

For late Wednesday into Thursday---Broad troughing should be
enough to assist any weak frontogenetical forcing to produce some
very light precipitation late Wednesday into Thursday. Both GFS
and ECMWF models output a fair amount of QPF just south of the
I-20 corridor and down through Central TX. While there is good
agreement in both of these models, the overall forcing appears
pretty subtle and as a result, I`ll trend on the lower side for my
PoP/QPF. If forcing becomes stronger/more apparent---it`s
possible that PoP/QPF will need to be adjusted in magnitude and
space. P-type forecast is difficult due to the uncertainty
revolving around the amount of lift juxtaposed with the best
moisture and cold air. As mentioned above, most NWP appears to be
too warm with regards to their hourly temperature output. In
addition, it`s likely that if precipitation is falling, more cooling
of the lower troposphere will likely continue. After closely
examining model soundings and discussion with surrounding offices,
I`ve added some wintry precipitation, mainly along and southwest
of an area bounded by an Eastland to Waxahachie to Waco to
Temple/Killeen line. Initial precipitation in the wake of the
front will start out as light rain/drizzle before transitioning to
light freezing/rain/drizzle. As the depth of the colder air
increases and secondary ice processes (seeder-feeder) begin to
dominate, a transition to light snow will be possible for the
aformentioned areas.

I was about to post that NWS offices are picking up on the wintery precip chances. Looks like the best chances are along I-20 generally with highest chance out west, but some chance in southern N TX and maybe a bit into E TX.

We are still following 1983 eerily closely. The absolute coldest air of that outbreak are unlikely, but an extended period of true Arctic air entrenching itself east of the Rockies seems likely later this month.

Models are looking very interesting for snow tomorrow night. The mid levels are trending moister. If you assume the surface cools faster than models then that should further increase snow chances. It looks more like flurries than anything but still better than last winter.