aggiegeog

3 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Models are starting to show snow for places > 5000 ft around here for this Friday, with the GFS being the most bullish. Pattern allows for storm after storm from the Pacific to dig south. A very cold pattern is taking shape for the Christmas week as well. It's a truly exceptional weather pattern.

 

I noticed that. The northern Mexican mountains are having a great December. 

30 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

What day in particular? Have some travel plans for early next week

I am thinking Monday, it could easily turn out to be 55 and sunny if it stays an open wave. The models are just now seeing that the SW low will likely traverse the state after a front on Sunday. If the models trend stronger with the low crossing the state and if the front brings down additional cold air then we will have something to talk about, but still a lot of ifs.

There is flurry potential late this week for N TX and then a more significant winter storm is possible early next week as a upper low crosses the state.

I would keep an eye on early next week as a sneaky opportunity for a significant winter storm. Recent runs have picked up on a front on Sunday with decent chance for some showers and storms. There is a low over Baja and if it can phase up with the trough then the trough will be deeper and we could likely see a Gulf low form which would move NE through Louisiana. For now it is just something to watch, but it has a decent chance of happening.

Seeing reports of amounts approaching 6 inches in College Station. I sure did not expect that.

Accumulating snows across Central Texas and the Brazos Valley this evening.

Looks like North Texas is seeing light snow this morning. If the intensity picks up a bit there could be some light accumulations in spots. There is a lot of low level dry air to overcome. Hoping this moves into E TX later. Temps will be cold with wind chills in the 20s and 30s all day.

Sleeting right now across the southern tier of East Texas from Waco to Nacogdoches. Not yet in Tyler, but a bit stronger returns are showing up now so maybe we can get a bit up here soon.

Looks like northern NM mountains will see a decent little snow tomorrow night. I'd say 3-6" with potential for higher as temps will be very cold.

I saw a few reports of sleet in Tarrant Co. I'm sure its happening elsewhere, but not many people out at this time.

The precip sheild is much more significant than modeled earlier as dewpoints are higher than modeled. I am getting light rain with a RH of around 50% which is a good sign of things to come as I am north of I-20.

The mountains of West Texas now have winter storm warnings for significant snows over the next couple days.

Sitting on back porch enjoying the rain and fresh cool air moving in. Hoping for half an inch of rain but not sure that is likely. Sure is fun watching the thermometer ticking the temp down.

Hopefully the NM mountains start to get some snow soon, maybe the mid month system can start out there. I hope I am not up there with bare ground late this month, if so I may have to sneak in a early spring trip up there to get my snow fix for the year.

A line of showers and storms will develop along the front tonight, questionable if it forms before crossing the Metroplex, but E and SE Texas should see some rain from it. Temps will stay cool all week with freezes possible over E TX late in the week (of course W Texas will see freezes this week but that is normal). Precip looks to break out over West Texas tomorrow night with a mix of rain and snow falling as far east as the Hill Country Wednesday. This precip should be pretty light though the higher elevations could see some accumulations. There is some chance for a few sleet pellets into southern N TX (Brownwood/Waco etc). Light rain will move into SE Texas later on Wed. After the cool weather this week, next week look average until a potential big system develops near mid month. Hopefully we will get some interesting weather out of that, but way too far out to know much of anything.

10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

King NAM and the latest GFS each have some snow in West TX and SE NM. Hoping it trends North.

I really hope it trends north. Thr mountains desperately need snow. I'll be up there in a few weeks.

9 hours ago, raindancewx said:

King NAM and the latest GFS each have some snow in West TX and SE NM. Hoping it trends North.

I really hope it trends north. Thr mountains desperately need snow. I'll be up there in a few weeks.

12Z GFS starting to look pretty solid as to what I expect though it still is not as cold at the surface as I believe it will be. Looks like big front on Tuesday brings showers and storms, maybe more than an inch of rain for some in E TX. Behind the storms the coldest air of the season will move in. The most interesting part of the forecast is if there is energy left behind to our west, if so parts of Texas (especially W TX) will see some snow on Wed. Then we will watch to see if a surface storm can develop along the front, if it develops far enough west ie off the Texas coast then more of E and SE Texas could see a snow threat. This could be the first E Coast winter storm of the year. Additional cold shots should follow in pretty quick succession so no major warmups expected for mid month.

Lots of ifs in there, but we know that it will be mild into early next week then a big front will bring rain to much of the state followed by cold air for the latter half of next week and beyond. Hopefully some snow for many worked in there somewhere.

Latest models are taking out the SW low, plenty of time for that part to fluctuate though. The main takeaway is that it will be cold almost continuously after next Tuesday, maybe a prefrontal warmup or two.

December is starting to look great for winter in NM and extending into Texas. The mountains look to get a few inches today and some more next week before a big one late next week. That big one could be our first chance at snow for northern Texas sometime around Dec 10th.

33 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I've never looked into this, but does TX tend to have dry winters after big hurricane years? Certainly seems like it in some of the analogs I liked.

My analogs for winter v. November 2017 so far -

Correct pattern, not great on anomalies.

We do seem to have dry years post hurricanes.

Finally seeing signs of a pattern flip. Hate to get too excited but many analogs showing up from Dec 2009. Major blocking setting up, tons of snow and cold over Canada, and warming in the eastern Pacific are great signs.

8 hours ago, cstrunk said:

Ended up with another nice, cold, soaking rain yesterday. Probably got around 0.70" or so IMBY.

I got a bit over an inch in Hideaway. Down tp 38 here this morning.

After today our weather looks pretty mild for a while. Time to watch the snowpack and cold air build in NW North America. 

I much prefer cold in place and hope for precip than the opposite during winter. The -EPO could be the dominant factor again this winter so as long as the PNA is not too high we are in a good spot. With not much of a STJ to tap into our snow will likely come from NW flow which is hard to predict.