aggiegeog

28 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Agree with your analysis. The difference between the models, so far up to 12z, is in the mean trough placement. The Euro is more progressive, with a less -PNA pattern that evolves into neutral/slightly positive. In consequence the mean trough is placed along the central CONUS, with a positive titled trough digging into NW MX. The reason, I think, is in how they handle the MJO. The Euro tugs it along into more favorable phases (8, 1), before plunging it into the circle of death. The GFS prefers phases 7 & 8 which would favor storminess along the Pacific coast, and undercutting, at least partially, the building trough further east. It's very hard to pinpoint the Pacific energy, which has been loaded with storms that dig south in this pattern...so even in a pattern where you have relatively shallow Arctic air entrenched, a Baja bowling ball would deepen the cold in the column and have more snow along it's track vs. freezing rain.

The -EPO pattern looks pretty interesting, and the next 2 weeks (at least) look to be loaded with arctic air for our neck of the woods (Plains). The 10 day 12z Euro is just historic Christmas snow about to happen for a lot of people.

If the 12Z plays out then we are really set up for something special as you stated. Extrapolate that out to Christmas and beyond we will be in a winter wonderland.

There is great agreement between the GFS and Euro along with their ensembles on a -EPO/-PNA pattern locking in starting late next week. Still too far out for to be confident in timing of precip or temp profiles to determine precip types. Overrunning events with Arctic air entrenched at the surface will tend to be freezing rain events, but we will wait to see how things play out with each individual system.

06Z GFS shows up to a foot of precip through its run over ETX much falling post Arctic fromt. Now I do believe that reality will prove colder than it shows along with being drier.

Finally the GFS goes back to normal and loses its consistency. 

Still has the very cold air, but the flow very different with an east based trough and almost little precip with a NW flow.

We are now within 10 days of a potentially historic Arctic outbreak. I don't think I could dream up more ideal conditions than what the GFS had been showing for the last 4 days and now we are in the range of the other global models. GFS now shows the NPO ridge inn the GoA reaching into the 590s at 500 mb. That is levels we see in July here. That will likely lead to 1060s mb highs in MT around New Year's. This will also bring precip as we will be on the southern periphery of the upper trough.

18Z GFS is similar to previous runs through early Sunday then it yanks the energy back over the SW and hold it there for a few days before ejecting on Tuesday. This would allow for significant snows and rains over NM and W TX and maybe into E AZ where they are extremely dry.

14 minutes ago, Roy said:

Well, my family Christmas in Kansas is on the 23rd, but we go up the 22nd. Then, we have to go to Abilene on Christmas Eve for my wife's family. This upcoming storm could be....interesting. May have to cancel the KS trip if it happens. We got stuck on the highway maybe 5 years ago in a major blizzard up there. I thought we would beat it but not quite, and it was worse than expected. The snowplows could not keep up, and we had to stop every 20 minutes that last 50 miles just to clear ice off the wipers. What a mess. Beautiful snow (about a foot), but never again....

I feel ya, I am trying to determine a travel plan to get to the mountains after Christmas. I want no part of driving in an ice storm or blizzard. A few inches of powder I can handle, but that does not appear to be what we are looking at.

6 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Yeah, and pretty early in the season. The Euro is bullish as well. It all comes down to how much phasing of the current Baja low goes on as the Polar Jet brings an s/w to meet it. The models are trending for much more interaction with the latest 12z runs, hence the sudden change of tune for this parts in relatively short notice.

I have been expecting the phasing, hope it intensifies more still. Here in E TX we will need an intense upper low for us to have any shot at snow early next week.

3 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Models are starting to show snow for places > 5000 ft around here for this Friday, with the GFS being the most bullish. Pattern allows for storm after storm from the Pacific to dig south. A very cold pattern is taking shape for the Christmas week as well. It's a truly exceptional weather pattern.

 

I noticed that. The northern Mexican mountains are having a great December. 

30 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

What day in particular? Have some travel plans for early next week

I am thinking Monday, it could easily turn out to be 55 and sunny if it stays an open wave. The models are just now seeing that the SW low will likely traverse the state after a front on Sunday. If the models trend stronger with the low crossing the state and if the front brings down additional cold air then we will have something to talk about, but still a lot of ifs.

There is flurry potential late this week for N TX and then a more significant winter storm is possible early next week as a upper low crosses the state.

I would keep an eye on early next week as a sneaky opportunity for a significant winter storm. Recent runs have picked up on a front on Sunday with decent chance for some showers and storms. There is a low over Baja and if it can phase up with the trough then the trough will be deeper and we could likely see a Gulf low form which would move NE through Louisiana. For now it is just something to watch, but it has a decent chance of happening.

Seeing reports of amounts approaching 6 inches in College Station. I sure did not expect that.

Accumulating snows across Central Texas and the Brazos Valley this evening.

Looks like North Texas is seeing light snow this morning. If the intensity picks up a bit there could be some light accumulations in spots. There is a lot of low level dry air to overcome. Hoping this moves into E TX later. Temps will be cold with wind chills in the 20s and 30s all day.

Sleeting right now across the southern tier of East Texas from Waco to Nacogdoches. Not yet in Tyler, but a bit stronger returns are showing up now so maybe we can get a bit up here soon.

Looks like northern NM mountains will see a decent little snow tomorrow night. I'd say 3-6" with potential for higher as temps will be very cold.

I saw a few reports of sleet in Tarrant Co. I'm sure its happening elsewhere, but not many people out at this time.

The precip sheild is much more significant than modeled earlier as dewpoints are higher than modeled. I am getting light rain with a RH of around 50% which is a good sign of things to come as I am north of I-20.

The mountains of West Texas now have winter storm warnings for significant snows over the next couple days.

Sitting on back porch enjoying the rain and fresh cool air moving in. Hoping for half an inch of rain but not sure that is likely. Sure is fun watching the thermometer ticking the temp down.

Hopefully the NM mountains start to get some snow soon, maybe the mid month system can start out there. I hope I am not up there with bare ground late this month, if so I may have to sneak in a early spring trip up there to get my snow fix for the year.

A line of showers and storms will develop along the front tonight, questionable if it forms before crossing the Metroplex, but E and SE Texas should see some rain from it. Temps will stay cool all week with freezes possible over E TX late in the week (of course W Texas will see freezes this week but that is normal). Precip looks to break out over West Texas tomorrow night with a mix of rain and snow falling as far east as the Hill Country Wednesday. This precip should be pretty light though the higher elevations could see some accumulations. There is some chance for a few sleet pellets into southern N TX (Brownwood/Waco etc). Light rain will move into SE Texas later on Wed. After the cool weather this week, next week look average until a potential big system develops near mid month. Hopefully we will get some interesting weather out of that, but way too far out to know much of anything.

10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

King NAM and the latest GFS each have some snow in West TX and SE NM. Hoping it trends North.

I really hope it trends north. Thr mountains desperately need snow. I'll be up there in a few weeks.

9 hours ago, raindancewx said:

King NAM and the latest GFS each have some snow in West TX and SE NM. Hoping it trends North.

I really hope it trends north. Thr mountains desperately need snow. I'll be up there in a few weeks.