aggiegeog

12Z GFS starting to look pretty solid as to what I expect though it still is not as cold at the surface as I believe it will be. Looks like big front on Tuesday brings showers and storms, maybe more than an inch of rain for some in E TX. Behind the storms the coldest air of the season will move in. The most interesting part of the forecast is if there is energy left behind to our west, if so parts of Texas (especially W TX) will see some snow on Wed. Then we will watch to see if a surface storm can develop along the front, if it develops far enough west ie off the Texas coast then more of E and SE Texas could see a snow threat. This could be the first E Coast winter storm of the year. Additional cold shots should follow in pretty quick succession so no major warmups expected for mid month.

Lots of ifs in there, but we know that it will be mild into early next week then a big front will bring rain to much of the state followed by cold air for the latter half of next week and beyond. Hopefully some snow for many worked in there somewhere.

Latest models are taking out the SW low, plenty of time for that part to fluctuate though. The main takeaway is that it will be cold almost continuously after next Tuesday, maybe a prefrontal warmup or two.

December is starting to look great for winter in NM and extending into Texas. The mountains look to get a few inches today and some more next week before a big one late next week. That big one could be our first chance at snow for northern Texas sometime around Dec 10th.

33 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I've never looked into this, but does TX tend to have dry winters after big hurricane years? Certainly seems like it in some of the analogs I liked.

My analogs for winter v. November 2017 so far -

Correct pattern, not great on anomalies.

We do seem to have dry years post hurricanes.

Finally seeing signs of a pattern flip. Hate to get too excited but many analogs showing up from Dec 2009. Major blocking setting up, tons of snow and cold over Canada, and warming in the eastern Pacific are great signs.

8 hours ago, cstrunk said:

Ended up with another nice, cold, soaking rain yesterday. Probably got around 0.70" or so IMBY.

I got a bit over an inch in Hideaway. Down tp 38 here this morning.

After today our weather looks pretty mild for a while. Time to watch the snowpack and cold air build in NW North America. 

I much prefer cold in place and hope for precip than the opposite during winter. The -EPO could be the dominant factor again this winter so as long as the PNA is not too high we are in a good spot. With not much of a STJ to tap into our snow will likely come from NW flow which is hard to predict.

Along with the blustery chill in the air, models are still moving the line of light showers currently near Abilene across the state north of I-20 producing very light rain possibly mixing with a few sleet pellets. This happens often post front during the winter but is very rare in October.

Our front is into the Panhandle now, though the temperature change is very gradual with 50s still even as far north as Kansas. Expect a few showers with the front, more the further SE you are. For N and E TX expect the front tomorrow morning (before daybreak likely in N TX) so temps will likely be steady near 50 with cloudy skies and gusty north winds along with light drizzle possible in the afternoon. If forcing is stronger than expected maybe someone will see a sleet pellet or two. Saturday morning will feature a frost for many and a possible freeze if skies clear. The weekend looks nice although a bit chilly. Sunday morning could bring a freeze to NE TX. Halloween looks to be chilly and wet.

The Gulf of Alaska is set up for a cool to cold November. Hopefully that is the pattern for the whole winter season.

We are still on track for an Arctic intrusion on Friday with temps steady in the 50s, would not be a shock if temps were even cooler though. Saturady looks like 50s for highs and Sunday morning will likely be the coldest with a decent chance at a frost for many, if we get good radiational cooling maybe a freeze in spots.

I like what I am seeing in regards to a possible Arctic (October version at least) outbreak next weekend. Looks like the typhoon remnants will pump up the GoA ridge which could bring many their first frost, maybe snow down to I-40. Still have to watch to make sure the West Coast ridge stays off of the Cali coast or we risk the cold sliding east.

18 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Even in populated areas of New Mexico it can occasionally snow in June & September. Snow is favored precip time above 7,000 feet or so from October to May. Nice pics. Was hoping for some snow in the city this October, but not looking likely. It only happens once a decade though. Suspect my forecast will do OK, with some issues, something always comes up. Last year it was pretty good for January nationally, less so Dec/Feb. As far as I know New Mexico doesn't have any glaciers, the permanent snow/ice line here would be like 15,000 feet above sea level, but obviously the big time mountains get close - I think July is really the issue - even at 13,000 feet its rarely cold enough to snow here in July.

"Beautiful Incredible Place" is how I'd describe most of New Mexico really. If you're back by June you will be able to see the white stuff on the higher peaks. Mountains will keep getting snow into mid to late May most years. Even in the city we had an inch of snow in some areas on April 29th this year. The volcanoes (5800 feet) outside the city were the lushest I had ever seen them a few days after it melted, covered in beautiful green grasses, flowers, mud, and wildlife.

My family's place (around 9k feet near on Highway 518) sees snow fall most years from mid to late Oct through mid May with snow on the ground consistently most years from TDay through mid April. February through mid March are peak with snow depths generally >3 feet and sometimes much deeper. Above 10,500 feet snow holds on though mid June usually. I have learned to quit trying to hike until July up high.

50 minutes ago, radarman said:

nice job, and GL

As an aside, hiked Mt. Wheeler on 10/1... snow began to appear around 11.4k', ramped up sharply above about 12.2k'.  Stray post holes might swallow up your whole leg in places... And the wind was out of control near the peak as the late Sept trough finally ejected..  Beautiful, incredible place. 

I was hoping to make it up this fall but it never worked out. My grandparents were up at our place around that time and they reported days around 45 with lots of rain, very unusual for October. I expected that the peaks were being dumped on. I expect the NE quarter of NM to be pretty interesting this winter from developing Panhandle lows forming on the typical strong La Nina fronts. Not sure the rest of NM will see much as the eastern Pacific is very cool so not many SW cutoffs. i bet we will see the return of some significant dust storms this winter after things dry out from a wet fall.

Keeping an eye out for a possible, if unlikely, 1993 late October setup. Anyone up for some October snowflakes and freezing temps?

3 hours ago, cstrunk said:

I'm about to start resorting to nightly rain-dances so I can get some appreciable rain IMBY. We got about 0.20"-0.25" last week, and maybe 0.10" from Harvey. The last decent rain was within a week or so before Harvey came ashore. About a month and a half ago. 

It sure has been dry. At least I got nearly an inch last week though none from Harvey.

The cool weather is very nice though, I could see mid 40s tonight.

East of I-35 will have typical late summer weather, though a small cool down for the weekend. West of I-35 looks very wet and cool. This system should produce some decent snow on the high peaks in NM and Southern CO. Only about 6 weeks until ski season in NM.

It has been a pretty dry summer except for a could very wet periods around here. My grass is starting to die so I am having to break down and water it. 

It is good to see snow in the forecast for the NM peaks this weekend. They should get a few inches before it all melts off with the western ridging next week.

Wow, Harvey looks like it is starting to bomb. These are going to the a very rough few days for South and Southeast Texas.

Keep an eye on that broad rotation moving towards Brownsborro and eventually towards Lake Palestine.

Possible tornado near Canton moving east.

Did not expect to see a severe ts watch today, but storms are robust.

Canton is in the middle of some very rough weather right now possible tornadoes to the NW and SE. This is First Monday weekend so there are a bunch of additional people in town likely. Still not much here but we have all evening to go and the storms are not far off along with watching new developments.

There is a winter storm watch for NE NM where they are expecting 6"+ of snow and a foot is possible in the mountains the snow will pour over into the Panhandles Saturday night. Around here on Sunday highs will struggle to reach 60 especially if clouds hold on like they did last Saturday. Along with the chill will be heavy rain on Saturday for North and East Texas.