aggiegeog

Another near freezing highs day. Lindale is getting some flurries this afternoon from the band along I20 across E TX.

For Tyler, 2025 could well show up in the record book the same number of times as 2021 between record lows and record low high. 2021 had 5. 2025 has a legit shot at 5 from this event.
Today's record low high was 31 and we had a high of 24. It is already down to 18 so tomorrow's record low of 19 will fall at midnight. Tomorrow's record low high is 36, that likely also falls. Friday's records of 19 and 35 will be close but are attainable. Today was also the latest ever sub 26 high. Basically this event is only rivaled by 1978 and 2021 for cold outbreaks around this time period of the 3rd week of Feb.

Widespread flurries across the N half of the state today. Areas south of favored lakes could see a couple inches otherwise just flurries and mist. Temps across N and NE TX will max out in the mid 20s with continued flurries. Tonight will clear out and wind will die down allowing temps to fall into the 5-15 range and some near the Red River that get snow today may go sub 0 tonight. Many will stay below freezing tomorrow and a few may stay below freezing Friday also.

The cold next week could shatter records especially if we do get some snow. North of I-20 may see -0s with widespread 0s. Record low mins and record low maxes are likely to fall as this event is just after the worst of 2021. Breaking 1978 and 2021 records is big.

Up and down temps for the next few days. Arctic front crashes through on Tue bringing a chance of winter precip through the day on Wed.

We are looking at a solid chance for an icing event across N TX mid week next week. The cold air initially arrives this weekend with further pushes through the week. Some chance for this to a be an ice storm for a large portion of the state, but we won't know how deep into the state until this weekend. Good chance that the remainder of the month stays cold with substantial blocking over the Arctic and well placed ridging out west. Enjoy these last couple warm days as those will be unlikely north of I-10 after this weekend until March.

On 2/2/2025 at 7:22 AM, DFWWeather said:

We got a negative EPO, negative WPO, negative AO, and possibly a negative NAO developing next week. Ridge this time positioned off the west coast up over Alaska (big difference this time around as opposed to along the west coast). This time around we may have more of a southeast ridge that will fight. This cold shot would be centered down the plains as opposed to further east. This setup is Katy bar the door cold for Texas. Look late next week to around Valentines Day for a flip to much colder. ECMWF is catching on but having trouble, as it did in Feb 2021 until we got right up on the event. The GFS is also seeing something. While I don't think we will get as cold as Feb 2021, I do think this is going to be Texas' coldest part of this winter coming up.

Agreed this is a classic Southern Plains cold and stormy pattern which has extended staying power.

Blizzard warning from Beaumont to Lafayette. 

Not many flakes but what is falling is perfect little stars.

3 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Mean mid-level RH is high right now (about 90%) on DFW 0z upper-air observation data this evening. But low-level is below 50%. Moisture is there overall. But, latest 0z NAM data coming in tonight still is not showing much omega/lift aloft overnight around DFW, and absent by morning (before column really dries out by midday). GFS hasn't been showing much lift either. Just FYI.

Lift has looked like it will be better across E TX into N LA. This evenings flurries and dusting is just bonus, few hours before good stuff gets here.

Flurries are much more widespread this evening than was expected. Hoping this indicates a more moist 850mb than modeled.

22 minutes ago, gwlee7 said:

Is that actual snow N and W of DFW on the radar or just “noise”? 

Some mPing reports north of DFW so likely some flurries reaching the ground.

13 minutes ago, gwlee7 said:

I think all the lack of model consensus is what’s been driving the SE folks crazy.  I think I will try to find a less technical textbook or web based resource to start educating myself better on all these factors.   I am fascinated by all of it except for when it decides to be hot and dry for 100 days in a row.  

Over the past 20 years i have pride to myself on winter weather forecasting in E TX. These northern stream clippers are my favorite kind of system. Models and professionals always miss them. Upper lows are fun wet snow. Gulf lows are frustrating. Clippers are great because expectations are low but many surprise. They didn't need moisture just Arctic air as they create enough forcing to overcome dry air.

6 minutes ago, gwlee7 said:

I am trying to learn more.   What should I be looking for and which short range models do you like for TX?   I know that my friends on the SE forum live or die a thousand deaths watching the long range models every time it gets cold and moisture is predicted in the area.  

We need to watch the 700mb front and moisture at 850mb. Stronger front means more lift and more humid 850mb mean less snow wasted to evaporation. I honestly am not really liking any of the short range models on this one. I guess the WRF models are doing decently. Canadian seems to have the best handle on this event from the start going back a week. So WRF, Canadian and Hi Res Canadian. GFS like always is playing the game of catching up in the last day to not bust horribly. NAM is looking like trash this go around. ICON and others have never figured this event out.

SHV expanded WWA north to all counties south of I20. 

I expect further expansions of WWAs for N and NE TX later today depending on obs this evening. Where the bands set up across N and NE TX I expect wet bulbing to send temps into the low 20s and some spots could get a quick inch or maybe more.

Models starting to ramp up the northern stream portion. With most showing accumulation across OK and across the Red River into TX. WRF models starting to see the N TX area also. Models usually miss these northern stream events until very short range.

Rain overspreading S TX currently along with drizzle and flurries along I10 now.

Big time band of snow in the Panhandle right now.

Also some snow reaching the ground NW of DFW which is a great sign that the dry layer can be overcome as this was not modeled

51 minutes ago, cstrunk said:

Interesting satellite imagery... can someone explain what this feature is that is rapidly expanding north? Seems like some kind of mid-layer moisture (causing clouds) advecting northward?

Not certain but looks like it could be the 850mb front advecting moisture further north than modeled. That's my best guess but I will not claim that as fact. Looks like a positive sign at least.

Looking at models the cloud layer (700mb) has saturated some 4 to 6 hours earlier than modeled this morning. This matches the moistening rate that occurred on the coast this morning. All very good signs for moisture. 

Still have to deal with the 850mb dry air layer. The 18Z Norman sounding is the only nearby midday sounding. It shows maybe a bit better moisture than modeled so that is another good sign.

Key to this whole event is to follow the 700mb front and where it generates the best forcing. It weakly is stationary along I20 today. By tonight it gains strength over NE TX and N LA as it begins to move SE. It moves off the coast by midday tomorrow. For C TX, watch how far SW the front can dig.

To add: Moisture trends are good this morning with moisture building in ahead of schedule. 

Watch that northern stream tomorrow and tomorrow night. If it's amped up, there could be widespread snow showers across OK, AR and N TX. Many get only flurries but there will be a coating to an isolated couple inches in spots. Canadian was best with last night's system which dropped some accumulating snow in OK and AR. This is why I still forecast potential for accumulating snow along and north of I20. Closer to I20 has the advantage of some moisture from the Gulf also.

2 hours ago, Stx_Thunder said:

40s showing up in ETX even Tuesday afternoon now on 12z GFS today.

Yep looks like everything suppressed so may even get some sun Tue. I'll give it a closer look later but most models sitting way with Tue. Another wild ride of forecasting winter in TX.

Along and south of I10 tomorrow night looks like rain turning to sleet then ending as snow during the morning hours. Along and north of 190 it should be all snow. The heavy stuff is in the morning after the transition is mostly done so snow could still accumulate significantly assuming the warm nose cools quick enough.

55 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:

 

I kind of doubt there's going to be any real snow accumulation with sfc temps hovering around (even above) 32 F, and such un-realistic 850Mb temp projections in ETX, Tuesday. Looks more like a sleet event, and ice storm in SETX.

After this week, that looks to be it for any more real Arctic air intrusions for the rest of the season looking at the CFS. Even GEFS & EPS projections are going warmer (than things have been lately) into February.

AO is also really starting to trend in a positive phase as well going forward.

I think much of SE TX will have mainly sleet with this storm. I think the show will be along and north of 190. Areas like Jasper or Lufkin can jackpot with heavy wet snow. Up closer to I20 it will be high ratio snow showers.

21 with a wind chill of 9 this morning here in Lindale. Similar but not as windy tomorrow. Tue will be low to mid 20s. Then mid week lows will be around 20 for areas without snow and low teens for areas with snow.

3 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Overall, this next Arctic air intrusion is just going to be a glancing blow.. with 40s by Wednesday (which I'm not surprised anyone has mentioned yet). Even in NTX (possibly even on Monday too in CTX), on both GFS & Euro. Even on NAM. Which handles these polar/arctic air intrusions the best.

And with the AO having already been in a positive phase to now, I can 100% say with confidence it's certainly not going be anything like the 2021 chill (like some were alluding to here.. because of the crazy as usual Canadian output. I guess...).

Even Canadian itself has finally started to back off on its insanely bias junk temps projections the past several days. Except on Wednesday morning lows still going down to < 0 F not far north of Houston... 

The well-below 850Mb temp projections on GFS & Euro also do not look realistic to me. Since even both of those reliable globals are showing the core of the coldest air has trended well northeast over the Great Lakes region.

I think show covered areas will see low teens, especially normal cold spots like Lufkin. I doubt Houston goes below 20 since they won't likely get much snow. Central and North Texas are talking upper teens I expect. East Texas that does not get much snow is likely mid to upper teens. I would not be shocked if someone sees upper singles if ideal radiational cooling can be achieved as low levels will be dry enough mid week to support it. East Texas can get really cold from these NE based air masses.

06Z models hold serve. Still have warm nose questions along and south of I-10. Also questions on if moisture can make it up to I-20 in accumulating quantity. Wherever ends up just north of the transition line could get over 6 inches of wet snow. Below the transition line will be an inch of mix. North of the heavy band will be snow showers which could amount to a few inches of high ratio powder where bands set up.