aggiegeog

The Christmas Eve snow is showing a bit on the GFS. It is reliant on the vort max staying over NTX where there is some moisture. If the vort stays south then there doesn't appear to be any moisture for it to tap into. Likely just flurries but these kind of systems in Arctic air can surprise. 

Could be a good rain even tomorrow for Deep East and Southeast Texas tomorrow with a band of 2-3 inches likely. 

The front Thursday still looks amazing with a very sudden plunge in temperatures from 40s and 50s to 10s and 20s, winds gusting over 40mph and maybe a burst of snow especially as the front moves east. Could be some brief periods of limited visibility. Friday will start with wind chills below 0 for a huge portion of the state. Amazing to have forecasted temps in the single digits with winds over 20mph in this part of the state. Thankfully Christmas weekend looks nice though cold. Maybe a few mood flurries if the shortwave can find any moisture. 

Sleet mixing with rain this afternoon across East Texas.

Signal for Arctic air next week is very strong and there is a growing signal for a couple shots at snow late next week through early the following week. 

Models all still look too fast in upper levels for a lot of fun for now but I would keep eyes on Friday night for a small event, Monday could be something if temps trend down a few degrees and I still would watch the big late week front to see if it finds moisture.

The big front will very likely come in faster and stronger than modeled. Post frontal temps Thu could be in the 20s with wind chill around 10.

Around here this morning it is in the upper to 20s to mid 30s

1 hour ago, DFWWeather said:

Very much agree with you on this. Seems all the teleconnections are pointing to an Arctic outbreak. How severe will it be and will it affect Texas directly like in the two years you mentioned are the questions? With a higher than usual chance of snow or ice in our around Christmas this year, we may be looking at temps as cold as 10 or colder before all said and done at DFW. I don't think we will get as cold as Febrary 2021, nor do I think this will be as protracted as December 1983 though, at least not yet.

I lean more towards 83, this will last longer than 21 just based on time of year. Late December has lowest sun angle of year. Below 0 around here happens so rarely so I do doubt we reach those levels but with good snow cover I can def see multiple nights below 10 with maybe isolated sub 0. That Arctic blocking is insane. 

13 hours ago, stormdragonwx said:

Indeed for those wanting a White Christmas, chances are higher than normal this year for much of the area for sure. While 200+ hours is still fantasy land forecasting, the GFS has been consistently showing something happening that week. See the current 06z run valid for Christmas Eve. One thing that is for sure is the cold air WILL be in place.

Agreed, and considering models are always too far north with Arctic boundaries at low latitudes then south trends can be expected in the storm track. 

Everything is on the table for a memorable second half of December with many days of subfreezing highs and several snow chances. Upper level forecasts look insane while models have yet to resolve surface weather. One of the best analogs for this pattern is 2/21 as well as 12/83, for sure two of the most severe Arctic outbreaks but it's on the table. 

We turn wet and cold for the second half of this month. Plenty of highs in 40s and 50s with a chance or two for frozen precip likely mixed in. 

Temps this morning are in the mid 20s to mid 30s across East Texas. Looks like the freeze warning could have been expanded one more row. Hope all were prepared for the cold this morning. A rapid warmup after today in the mid to upper 80s by Friday and this weekend. 

Looks like a freeze is possible for non urban areas of North and Northeast Texas Wed morning. 

The north central NM mountains (Santa Fe to Taos) will see the first good snow this week. I'd go with 6 to 12" above 10k. 2 to 6" above 8k. A dusting maybe down to valley floor in Taos area. Peaks further south across NM will also see some snow though amounts will likely be under 4".

Today's rain bomb along I-20 from DFW through East Texas has been incredible with some locations nearly doubling YTD rainfall in less than 24hr. The Mesquite area is up to around 15", DFW up to over 9" and most of area in the 4-8" range. Perfect storm of systems converging over the area. The heaviest rains are slowing edging ESE. I wont be surprised if someone tops 20". What a way to go from major drought to flooding in a few hours.

Gonna be a lot of sites in Northwest Texas with highs over 115F today. The swath from San Angelo north to Wichita Falls is the epicenter.

The pictures are incredible and hard to believe. Seeing the smoke columns make 13,000 ft peaks looks tiny is hard to wrap around. And the fact that primary containment lines are being set up 20 miles from the current head of the fire is also. Those mountains are rough and steep with very dense but weak forest covering them. Thankfully not many homes in that area. This fire could easily burn into July or August or at least until it gets to the Taos valley. Imagining the area from Las Vegas to Toas burnt is tough as that is where I have spent my whole life visiting a few times a year.

20 hours ago, ValpoVike said:

Sorry to hear this man.  I totally understand what you are going thru...been there.  A threatening wildfire is huge stress, but a long duration threat is a whole different level of stress.  I had Cameron Peak fire two years ago hang in the mountains to our west for 3 months before it roared down.  Thankfully it all worked out and no personal damage, but the stress of potentially losing a cherished home is intense...almost PTSD level.  Hang in there and know that there are a lot of very dedicated professionals doing all that they safely can.  

EDIT: Also the biggest thing your family can do (if you can still access the property) is to mitigate around the home.  Take out any trees near the house, cut down any grass, and remove plants from around the home.  Also, clear the immediate area around the home of anything that can burn (furniture, firewood, junk, etc).  This really made a difference in our neighborhood, where fire blackened all around many homes but they didn't burn due to successful mitigation.

We are in East Texas so too far to do anything but watch. Only one family decided to stay in our neighborhood up there. The fire is now within one creek drainage from our neighborhood. Sadly the neighborhood is fairly wooded so its going to make structure protection difficult. All structures are wood though many have metal roofs so that should help. With humidity levels and wind direction the fire will likely be in our drainage as early as today and good chance by Friday. Of greater concern of course is in the valleys where people live and work and not so much for our vacation homes. The fire will soon be in the towns of Chacon and Guadalapita. It will be pushing towards Angel Fire after that. Praying for the safety of residents and fire personnel, this has been a very hard month for them and there is no end in sight.

The Hermit Peak Fire in NM is just 5 miles south of my family's place and winds turn southerly today. The fire has burned over 200,000 acres so far and has been burning for a month already. There are still two months until the monsoon hopefully kicks in. Hopefully winds calm down enough for firefighters to slow the spread and get the helicopters and planes in the air consistently before then.

https://nifc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=bfb95b09412840c0afd99626ea2bee4f

Isolated freeze across East Texas with widespread mid to upper 30s this morning.

NWS confirmed 100mph microburst Monday night in Whitehouse. Lots of damage there. Outside of that winds were in the 50s across a wide swath of East Texas and North Louisiana.

Lots of power outages and some tree and roof damage from last nights line south of Tyler.

It has been a very rough evening across East Texas with several significant tornadoes and a few more more minor ones. Thankfully they skipped all around me but I did have 3 potential tornadoes within 25 miles around 9 pm. Sounds like Crockett and Gilmer areas got hit hardest. One went right through Tyler but doesn't seem like it was on the ground or at least not in a significant way.

Band of light snow dropping down along Red River. Areas along and north of I-30 may get a dusting. Watching to see if this develops anymore or if it can drop south much more.

7 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

I would doubt if we see that much based how things go now. I'm in S Denton Ct. It seems the current temp is just a bit warmer than they expected, which will make a large difference in this case.

Edit: Raining pretty hard now. 1C outside. I consider myself to be pretty far north of I-20 here 

Heaviest snow will be McKinney to Texarkana and points north. Denton and areas west of you will likely see more sleet and miss the heavy snow later today.

NWS continues expanding WWAs south to the I-20 corridor. Amounts should be around half an inch near I-20 with an inch plus possible near the Red River. Before the snow, light rain and sleet will fall. The snow will likely come in a quick burst that could quickly cover roads and especially bridges. Other than precip expect cold wind chills all day today. A hard freeze is possible tonight where snow accumulates.

20 minutes ago, LaGrangewx said:

I’ve been jealousy watching the models crush Taos today and tonight from the east coast. Wouldn’t be surprised if 30+ by tomorrow. I’d love to be out there right now. 

If I wasn't so busy at work I'd happily trade my dusting I'll get tomorrow in Texas for a couple feet at my family's place south of Taos. 

Been dumping good in Northern NM this month and another 1 to 2 feet today will make this a very good late winter.