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aggiegeog

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Posts posted by aggiegeog

  1. 12 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

    The freezing line as of 900CST is already sitting around Abilene, TX - Durant, OK line. The latest GFS is only modeling that to play out after midnight. A 15-hour difference is just insane! I don't think I ever seen such a large difference in terms of the timing of a cold front. But on the other hand, I guess that can be a good news as it could make it drier/less froze precipitation? But I'm too sure about this.

    With the cold so shallow not sure drying will be an issue. Could lead to introduction of more sleet for North Texas as cold will be a bit deeper than expected. Main change is a large shift SE in the freezing rain line.

  2. On 2/20/2022 at 7:44 PM, vwgrrc said:

    This one seems a bit interesting as it's harder than the event 3 weeks ago for models to reach any consensus at this range. What's even more interesting is that NWS suggested they're picking side with the colder ones like NAM/GFS than EU models. I feel most of time in the past they stayed mid-ground or even tilting warmer. Maybe they just have more faith in NAM in this set up. If that plays out, there could be some impact for the northern half of DFW.

    Front is trending colder and faster vs models. Globals see mid levels and don't drive front south. This front has tons of momentum and it will drive south fast and likely won't slow until reaching the Gulf tomorrow night. Strong surface high pressing cold downhill regardless of upper level winds. This will be a long duration freezing drizzle event with temps in 22 to 26 range across N TX. For E TX, the freezing line will be much trickier but I'll side with colder models and go with 29 to 34 during the event for the Tyler area. That means ice on elevated surfaces but roads should be decent here. For N TX, roads will be bad Wed and Thu.

  3. WRF is extremely fast with the cold and gets me down to low 20s by Thu morning. I think that is likely overdone but it does illustrate that the potential is there even far SE of DFW for a major winter storm. I think DFW is under 0.25" ice, 1 to 2" sleet and 1 to 4" snow with 6" possible for far northwestern DFW. I expect worst ice to be from Athens to Canton to Mt Pleasant where accretion may be pushing 0.5" for transition to sleet and snow. Ice line may make it down to a College Station to  Marshall line. Below that only expect rain mixed with sleet late Thu and again Saturday.

    • Like 1
  4. Agreed that without meso model support it is ok to delay a bit in watches, unless agreement comes before they may wait until tomorrow. The GFS has been amazingly consistent, though if meso models do not come into agreement by 12Z tomorrow the forecast is gonna be very difficult. If the high was over the Dakota's it would be much more of a slam dunk but it's a bit far east from ideal position so that especially East Texas has a couple mountain ranges in between. I still think areas west of a Waco to Tyler to Paris line are very likely to have significant icing. Longview to Texarkana are much more borderline.

  5. 28 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

    Thanks for sharing! Now at 12z, NAM starting to pick up this event. The frozen p amount seems lower than what GFS, CMC and ICON suggested at this point. I wonder how we read that? Is that a timing difference or mesoscale just has a better insight in this case?

    NAM at this range is fantasy land. I'll start paying attention to the NAM and other meso models on Tuesday. I do not think we will gain much insight tomorrow with the storm offshore.

    • Like 1
  6. 18 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

    I wouldn't get too confident on anything until Euro and GFS converge.  Globals not known for low level temp resolution, either, but it seems like mesoscale models aren't really good outside 48 hours, or Tuesday earliest to get *super* excited.

    Euro has proven itself to be very unreliable and inconsistent with these type events over the past few years. ICON and GFS to a lesser degree are king in this situation. The combo of two very strong forces, 1050mb Arctic high and strong negative tilt short wave, make it very difficult for models to resolve. My opinion is to go on past experience which is the shortwave will be more SW than modeled and the surface cold will bleed south faster than modeled except in far eastern Texas where the Ouachita Mountains will block it.

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  7. There likely will be a 50 to 100 mile wide swath of major freezing rain impacts. My initial guess for it is centered around a Del Rio to Paris line. North of I-20 and west of I-35 could see heavy snow that begins as sleet closer to I-35. Heavy rain ending as freezing rain south of that line. Maybe an area of light snow later in day Thursday along and north of I-20.

  8. 22 hours ago, DFWWeather said:

    I completely agree! This is the best pattern and chance I've have seen this winter for significant cold air dump and, in particular, wintry precipitation. Some models spreads showing potential of upwards 30+ degrees below normal for the DFW area. This is an excellent pattern if you are a lover of winter weather. Unfortunately, if we get a Arctic dump of this magnitude, it will again put strain on agriculture, infrastructure and the power grid for much of the state, much like last February. What is interesting is nearly every major global model and much of their ensembles have been in remarkable agreement in the evolution of the pattern since Monday. Something to watch for sure!

    Having said that though, I am a bit on the skeptical side on precip largely because we have been devoid of any significnat precip here for months now (what October last time we saw more than an inch?). Much of the state in entering into severe drought status.

    Thankfully NE Texas had a good rain event recently, and I think that is where this event will focus also. The whole region will be very cold but heavy precip will likely be confined to eastern parts of the state. There will be more waves following the mid week system though and those will pull moisture further SW the following week. Several consecutive days below freezing for the northern parts of the state with sub zero possible near the Red River in areas that get snow. This will put great stress on agriculture and infrastructure.

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