aggiegeog

Looks like there ended up with a nearly continuous band of 6"+ snow amounts from SE NM down to College Station and up through N LA. Isolated 10"+ in spots. DFW had a dusting to 1" though just south of DFW had 6". I had 2" but only had to go 10 miles south to see 4"+. There was a heavy strip of ~8" from Madisonville up to Jacksonville. Basically anyone north of I-10 at least saw snow flakes, even SA saw a dusting. Downtown Houston barely missed though they likely had some sleet mixed in. I am pretty happy with my forecast map though I under-forecasted the intensity of the main band also missed the B/CS area stuff that busted my forecast high in central East Texas. I mainly got the locations correct. 

Ended up with close to 2". Hearing that roads are good this morning around here thankfully.

Another ULL crosses the state tomorrow night though it will be moisture starved. Maybe some light rain for central Texas tomorrow evening and maybe some sprinkles or flurries tomorrow night for E and SE Texas.

The next significant storm comes this weekend with rain or snow for much of the state. 

It has been dumping for the past half hour or so. I'd say we have half an inch with several hours left of heavier snow and likely a few more hours of light snow after that. We look to get upwards of 4" at this rate.

A dusting so far north of Tyler. I think we will see 2-3" maybe more if the stuff down by Waco makes it up here as the sun goes down.

Reports west of I-35 def are encouraging but I'm keeping my expectations at 2 or 3 inches between 6pm and midnight.

NWS Shreveport upgraded the area along and south of I-20 to a WSW with a WWA for the I-30 corridor. They are advertising 2-4" in the warning area. Their forecast closely matches mine for East Texas.

I think areas around Lufkin could get more but totals down their may be cut by sleet. Up along I-20 looks like we will have to deal with some rain during the day today given our distance from the upper level low. Tyler should still get a solid 3" of snow, but not the crazy 6"+ amounts that we could have had if it was all snow during the day today.

There is another storm lined up for next weekend. This blocking over Canada looks to stay in place and even grow stronger over the weeks ahead. We will have plenty more shots at snow over the coming months. Not going to be the warm dry winter many predicted. ENSO is only a part of the picture.

58 minutes ago, DFWWeather said:

NWS office upgraded Watch to a Winter Storm Warning. They went with a Winter Weather Advisory for the Metroplex. The southwest quadrant of Tarrant is likely to see more than 3 inches and because of that, I think Tarrant County should have been included in the Warning.

By tomorrow the warnings will stretch from eastern NM to western MS. I def think Tarrant will warrant a warning but depends some on where bands set up as the ULL will miss DFW to the south.

All signs point to a 2010 event still though this event is much colder at upper levels and colder even at the surface. Ratios could well be closer to the 10:1 or even better under the ULL. There will likely be some 12 inch and higher totals.

21 hours ago, vwgrrc said:

 

22 hours ago, DFWWeather said:

 

Low of 24 here. These colder than expected temps this morning will help cool the ground for tomorrow.

Hi-Res models (MRRR and RAP) have the precip shield further north which gives DFW 3-6" with 6"+ to the west, south and east. Regional models (NAM and RGEM) are a touch south of the Hi-Res giving DFW 1-3".  I-20 may well be shut down Monday from Monroe to Midland with 4-8" along that whole stretch.

Looks like QPF is similar on most models determining factor especially for us in E TX will be if it is 33 vs 35 Sunday afternoon. If we end up with the talked about but impossible to forecast convective band cooling then all bets are off and totals will pile up fast. Mid 30s would yield around a 6:1 ratio while low 30s would likely be closer to 8:1. In isolated convective bands we could talk about over 10:1.

6 minutes ago, DFWWeather said:

First off, there is no Arctic air associated with the system on Sunday. Let's be clear on the source region of the airmass. This airmass did not originate in the Arctic circle or Siberia. It exhibits none of the properties of Arctic airmasses.  It is modified continental and Rocky mountain air. We are all excited by the snow and some impressive amounts are being forecasted by the models. However, none of that is taking into account the amount of snow that will be wasted to melting on impact. Many of the models surface temps are between 34 and 38 degrees (these may be warm given all the models H85 temps), including the NAM, during this event. If temps are being correctly modeled, It is going to be a fight to get accumulations with surface temperatures that warm. So to be realistic, I think your totals are a bit much. Even the NWS is not forecasting anything like that based from this morning AFD, thus this event may not even meet Winter Storm Warning criteria for the Metroplex. What happened in February of 2010 was extraordinary, and I would love to be wrong and it happen again, it just is not likely.

Ok let's call it cold air then. True Arctic air would not support snow. I think its more likely we see temps dropping into the 20s under the heavy bands given the cold temps at 850 and even at 925. Daytime temps for North Central TX outside of the heavy bands will likely be 33 to 35 so there may be some melting. Under the heavy bands we are looking at >2"/hr rates with temps at or below freezing and ground temps not crazy warm given time of year and current cool temps. I am very confident in storm max totals being in the range of a foot or perhaps greater with widespread 6".

RGEM seems to be handling the convective nature of this event well even if the QPF may be overdone. Though around 1" QPF for a dynamic system with great moisture is clearly possible. I believe and there will be a number of areas that receive near or over 12" with the area between Hillsboro  and Nacodoches being the most likely stretch to see that. All models give this area between 0.5 and 1.5" QPF with temps supporting primarily snow.

Texas has been waiting 11 years for a Gulf surface low, potent upper low combo pumping moisture into an Arctic air mass.

Just now, Powerball said:

FWIW, I think those amounts are going to end up being low on the western part of your map.

I could see that, I haven't focused hard on that area since my audience is generally DFW and E TX. I do think the area between Lubbock/Big Spring and east could see some good totals (likely will up that area to the 7" type range). My biggest question for now is the Amarillo to Wichita Falls area, do they stay in the 1-2" range. Deep East Texas is another tricky forecast as they will have 1-2" QPF but when will the change to all snow occur, the Lufkin to Jasper area could see anywhere from just a mix to 10" of snow.

10 minutes ago, Powerball said:

I'm not even concerned about thermals. 

It's the storm's track and intensity I'm more worried about. 

Gonna need the trough to dig further than what the GFS shows, and for it to come through with at least a neutral tilt for any appreciable snows in the heart of DFW. With the dry air advecting in from the NE gradient around the arctic high, there's going to be a sharper northward cut off than the models are suggesting. 

Good point and something to watch out for in DFW. I am not overly bullish on DFW and north. I am thinking Waxahachie, Corsicana, Athens, Tyler and Nacogdoches will be the sweet spot with amount tapering off quickly north of I-20 and areas to the south dealing with rain for some time. Below is the map I put together last night. I think it is still in decent shape though amounts may taper off even more sharply along and north of I-30.

1 hour ago, Powerball said:

12z GFS has gone back towards a more suppressed look.

06Z and 12Z GFS are just an example of the GFS's warm bias, they are 5-10 degrees warmer at the surface than other models otherwise the GFS is the same as the other models. We know we will have a strong upper low crossing the state Sunday with a cold air mass already in place. This upper low will generate a coastal low which will throw a lot of moisture into the path of the cold upper low. I am expecting a 150 mile wide swath of heavy snow across Texas generally along and south of I-20 though that swath could shift 50 miles north or 100 miles south. If you are in the core of the heavy swath though I don't see you missing out totally at this point. We are talking about a potential historic snow event for north Central and East Texas with 0.5-1.5" QPF in areas where the temperature profile suggests primarily a snow precip type.

Wow, looks like we could see a 1982 or even 2010 type event out of this. Models showing maxes around a foot south of I-20 and 3-6" along I-20 with around an inch along the Red River. There will likely be some impressive thundersnow which will drop snow at rates in excess of 2" per hour so even with above freezing surface temps accumulations could be hefty even on roads.

I do think the best snow will be south of DFW, say Waxahachie to Palestine to Marshall. Thankfully this will be basically all snow for N and E TX. If 1" plus QPF verifies in these areas it will be wild, but even 0.5" QPF would make this one of the top snow events for these areas.

Looks like the I-20 corridor of TX will see a classic snow storm Saturday through Monday. 

There are multiple reports of over a foot of snow in West and Southwest Texas from this storm. Thundersnow also reported west of Fort Worth with heavy snow. I expect Oklahoma will do well overnight. The surface low is in SE OK now.

28 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

38 and its raining cats and dogs here in Irving. Got a runble of thunder too

Hearing that there is some sleet mixed in with your batch further west.

Someone in a Waco to DFW to Texarkana triangle is in line for a big time snow event with strong winds on NYE.

Snow chances are increasing for the northern half of Texas after mid week.

Saw that Angel Fire dipped to -21 Wednesday morning. Man it gets cold there on ideal radiational cooling nights.