KPITSnow

Saturday looks like once again we won’t know until late in the game whether it’s an advisory level event or not.
 

ill say this, I have places to be Saturday morning. I really don’t want a 1-2 event that just annoys me. 

Congrats guys. Those a brutal miss for us 

I think this winter is done for us 

Maybe I’m just misremembering but I don’t remember some of these absolutely wild swings within 48 hours. I mean I remember the gradual bleeds north on the models but I can’t remember a storm just up and shifting 100’s of miles over two runs two days out 

14 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Interesting thanks for the analysis. Always appreciate those who are smarter than me chiming in and breaking things down.

 

With that being said we have to be honest with ourselves about this storm. This was never gonna be a "big dog" for us. We have a marginal air mass and nothing to slow it down. It sucks but it's not like we are missing out on 12+. On to the next one.

I mean, it wasn’t. But it’s still frustrating that we went from being rain and  too far south to twelve hours later the models showing us too far north lol. 

But man we are cursed here. We went from being 50 miles too far south to 50-100 miles too far north in like 3 runs 

I’d rather this than a 2 inch storm that makes my commute a nightmare honestly 

It would be pretty typical

though if somehow this slid south of us 

I haven’t been posting on purpose, mainly because I think if we get anything from this it’s a bonus. Looks like we could get half a foot or nothing. 

7 hours ago, TimB said:

This is actually pretty wild (KPIT era, 1952-present):

Well, this list certainly lends credence to the idea cold periods are less sustained, even if extremes are still there. 
 

the fact ten of these are this century, one is in 1999, and four of the top 5 are in the last ten years really is pretty eye opening. 

2 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

You're fucking soft if you think what I said is attacking somebody. 

Dude, just stop your trolling. The fact is that every time we are modeled for a pattern change or a window for a big storm it does materialize. Sure we had a couple smaller events over the last few weeks but that period was heavily hyped for a big storm that never came. Then the pattern was expected to flip next week yet that has disappeared.

You don’t need to tell someone every single time they post something that isn’t rosy to stop posting it. 

23 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Lol at taking these maps verbatim. These have never verified. Let's get through this shitty period and get a good pattern before we start worrying about long range snow maps. 

Don’t read the maps then. Honestly you attacking anyone posting anything is really really old. 

1 hour ago, Atomixwx said:

I read every post, even when I'm behind bars and have to press my ******* against glass to get attention, but I don't remember a whole hell of a lot about last summer that didn't involve my toddler trying to invent fun and new ways to give me a heart attack.

I don't remember anybody in particular crying about a failure to reach 90 in their backyard. What kind of asshole wants that heat and the humidity it comes with around here?

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

lol. We have a poster in our thread that goes crazy every time we top out at 89

Won’t it be great. Probably no snow and then hit April and weather is exactly the same as January! 

51 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

At least 4 of us now with a C- (You, Me, Canderson, and MJS) and we got there for the same reasons. 

Hey at least you have that. Outside of a few areas in the metro here that got raked by a lake band, Pittsburgh is on two straight years not even verifying an advisory event.

I would estimate IMBYi have maybe 9 inches for the year. 

I’m also not going to lie, took the train to New York yesterday and the fact I could see snow piles all through to the nw Philly burbs and even in to Philly told me they got a lot more snow than we did. I asked on the cpa thread and someone there got 18.5 over two weeks. 
 

I know some of you cashed in on that lake band but for the rest of us we might ge sitting under 10 inches for the year 

1 hour ago, TimB said:

Latest GFS suggests we never see the troughing and instead get a portion of the ridge. An above normal period in that Feb 1-5 timeframe suddenly seems alive and well again. This is comical. Another embarrassing model fail less than 6 days out.

Shouldn’t be shocked. This happened constantly last winter. 

32 minutes ago, TimB said:

Well we already lost the snow for next weekend, but now it seems we’ve lost the cold too. Even the “cold” part of the pattern is warm and dry.

We are running out of time very fast 

How much did some of you get in the last few weeks? I’m on the train from Pittsburgh to nyc and I’m pretty shocked I’m still seeing snow piles in lots. I’m in Paoli now and still seeing it. 

5 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

Please keep posting these. It’s extremely relevant 

Just now, Burghblizz said:

You’re not wrong. Fewer clippers, more flirting with mix. There have been subtle changes. Maybe offset by more extended LES nuisance snows. But I think 2023 is a blip. There have been plenty before.

Talking warm temps last night and today is very relevant. But Dozens (if not hundreds) of posts that build towards some narrative that our overall snow is dying is the clutter I’m talking about. Nothing in the long term data shows that. 

The clipper one is fascinating to me and I’d love to hear a met’s take on why we don’t see those? Maybe @MAG5035 could elaborate? 

If someone wants to post date to prove me wrong, feel free. Where the changes really feel different are a couple places. 
 

one, there is still cold and snow but not quite as many extended cold snaps. Snow cover over a longer period seems less.

there also seems to be a change in the types of systems we get. I’d love to know what happened to clippers. I remember we used to get a couple 1-3 or 2-4 type clippers a year and I don’t feel we have in 10 years.

The lakes definitely did not used to be open for LES al year. They used to freeze in January cutting off LES. That change seems almost undeniable.

I mentioned this to Tim, it doesn’t seem we set up for front end events anymore. Those events we used to go from snow, to ice, then possibly rain seem gone. It always seems to be we are simply riding a kid or snow line immediately. I can’t remember the last time we got a miller b with mixing issues but still a good front end 2-4 inch type thump. 

5 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Wait - time out. Not sure who you “some of you” are. I have no issues with “climate change talk”. 

I have issues with the flat out obsession of a poster (or three) obsessing over every slice of data that might show a a degree or two warmer for *this* area. Local sensible weather (esp snowfall) has not declined here over extended periods

For 15+ years (going back to eastern), this thread has been about winter storm chasing. Sure we can acknowledge if it’s warm, etc. But some weird slice of data everyday?

I mean look at the Buffalo thread from last year. Climate Changer had 9 posts in a row about Lake Erie being a half degree warmer or some shit. Those guys went to Discord. They want to talk about chasing their 2-4’ lake band. 

So again…it’s not about the topic or the science. It’s about the place and frequency. 

But I also think it is relevant. I don’t think you can argue that winters have been overall warmer. You also can’t argue that the lakes used to regularly shut off for LES by January as they froze but really don’t anymore. We hadn’t had a true Alberta clipper in years here.

I don’t know how all these things tie together, but they are very relevant to our local discussion 

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I didn't even bring up climate change, to be honest. I thought it was interesting. It's not some random record for consecutive days above a random temperature... it was noting that, hey, 2/3rds of the way through met. winter and this has been the warmest of any of our lives. We have all lived through some real clunkers, I think it's noteworthy when, with one month remaining in meteorological winter, we are warmest of record at KPIT and warmest overall in the threaded record in 74 years. I think some are just frustrated. 

For the record, just factoring in yesterday's blowtorch, brings the two-month average up to 37.4F. I mean that's not exactly ideal for winter weather. Hell, the warmest at KPIT from 12-1 to 1-31 currently is 36.4F, set in the winter of 2001-02 so we could potentially blast by that by a full degree.

I know. The response to what is a meteorological fact, which we discuss on here, was way over the top and shows how unfortunately politicized science has become 

8 hours ago, Burghblizz said:

No one cares 

It’s amazing how triggered some of you get at any hint of climate change talk