KPITSnow

My god, I really hate these late September/early October heat waves that are becoming more and more common 

This looks like it may landfall right on the border. Still no real eastward motion 

Interestingly it doesn’t look like the right turn into Nova Scotia has started yet and if anything still looks like there is a north west component to it. Maybe it splits NB and NS and turns right into the bay of fundy.

regardless I enjoy tracking these storms going into less that usual Locations just like Hilary in CA 

14 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

It's likely legit

What is likely legit? That the storm is going to hit cape cod? 

Got absolutely blasted in the north hills. 

2 hours ago, andyhb said:

Potential Northeast storms are so annoying to track, most notably due to the constant influx of unnecessary 1938 comparisons that are bound to arise.

And people like Metfan who got pretty wrecked in sandy wish casting a cat 4 into Long Island 

AccuWeather says 97 on Wednesday. I’d rather just die. 

Early estimates of 20 billion in damage, so for those complaining it was t that bad, that makes it a top 15 storm I believe.

I get really sick of watching these threads and seeing amateur forecasters say “look I was right” especially when just 12 hours ago they called an ERC and that it wouldn’t strengthen beyond 110-115.

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

Read every other sentence talking about cat 5s. It’s laughable.

Where?

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

By the same coin, you’ve got numerous who are convinced this thing is going to be the next Camille for no reason.

Yeah, not seeing that. Most people are saying cat 3 or 4 which seems reasonable 

I can’t believe the amount of people, including some Mets, that melted down a bit at the 100mph advisory only to have it essentially Confirmed by recon an hour later.

One thing to keep in mind with Tallahassee. If it gets in the eyeball it will be on the western side which is usually good, but we saw with Michael what a rapidly intensifying storm can do when Panama City got raked by the western side. 

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

NE eyewall sampled. 964.6mb extrapolated. FL winds peaked at 103kt. Peak SFMR of 84kt. 

That should settle the question on it being deserving of 100mph. That’s close enough. 

7 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

For a little weather history, on this date in 1982, the region was in the throes of an impressive late August cold snap. The official low temperature was 39F at PIT. However, typically colder locations saw freezing conditions. Low temperatures included 26F at Bradford; 28F at Slippery Rock, 29F at Washington; 32F at New Castle; 32F at Youngstown, Ohio; and 34F at DuBois.

Bradford

Slippery Rock

Washington, PA

New Castle

Youngstown, Ohio

DuBois

 

That high of 85 and low of 29 in the same day has to be wrong lol. 80 the day before and a 51 degree temp dro overnight?

39 minutes ago, Witness Protection Program said:

2 thoughts:

1.  Looking at the swamps and topography of Florida's armpit, I'd say the odds are up to almost 50% that 1 or more dumb disaster wankers "Imma documentary stormchaserz!" ends up getting themselves killed by poor decisions.

2.  Could be some really terrible results depending on where the surge for this thing hits.  So many very low lying houses.  Take a look at all those canal streets in Suwannee:  https://www.google.com/maps/@29.3297975,-83.1433486,2760m/data=!3m1!1e3?entry=ttu

You've got mobile homes on the water that will flood with as little as 5' of surge and some wave action:  https://www.google.com/maps/@29.3308642,-83.1400039,3a,15y,234.07h,86.97t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sDUHcWJw9R1rGrvVwgnjaTQ!2e0!7i13312!8i6656?entry=ttu

And even the homes built on stilts may have to contend with a lot of battering tree and mobile home debris atop the surge, driven by the winds.  1-2 miles inland not so advantageous when it's that low lying.  We saw in Ike the way many stilt homes couldn't take the high surge + wave action, I'd guess it would have been even worse if there had been a mile of 3' elevation forested swamp in between.  Might initially blunt  the waves, but  debris pile would eventually slam forward.

No way I'd try to ride it out in Cedar Key, Suwanneee, Yankeetown, Horseshoe Beach, or even parts of Steinhatchee.  And with all those snappable pines and thick forests, I would never mock anyone well inland evacuating from fears of wind damage. 

 

Who was the moron who tried to film in Mexico beach during Michael and had to break into someone’s house to survive? 

1 hour ago, jerseyshorewxguy said:

My son is a sophomore at FSU. How long was city paralyzed because of Kate---how long did power outages last?  We were without power 17 days for Sandy but that would be brutal in Tally with August/early September heat.

Always a sandy name drop.

Just now, Ahoff said:

I think they were comparing tracks and saying this could be worse than forecasted.

I just reread it. You’re right. I thought he meant it would be on the lower range of 4-7 feet 

1 hour ago, TPAwx said:

Had 4ft IMFY from TS Eta, on a not dissimilar track maybe a degree to the right of Idi’s current track.  Of course Eta had a lot of energy built up.  The 4-7 forecast for TB may end up on the lower range of possibilities.

So a TS with a similar track would be similar to a potential cat 3 storm? I don’t know if that makes sense? 

2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I think a lot of people are focusing on where landfall of Idalia will take place.  Here is the bottom line If Idalia is say 60 miles west of the West Coast of Florida moving North or NNE or NE the entire coast will experience significant storm surge and anywhere just E or SE of where the Center comes ashore will be experience very severe to life threatening if a CAT 3 or 4 storm surge problems. 

I think the evac order reflect this. A storm skirting the coast and land falling in the Big Bend area is a far worse scenario for the Tampa area than Ian was. The surge won’t be catastrophic in a place like Tampa but could still be very significant.

7 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Last word on Hilary as the coverage and hyperbole really struck a nerve with me: it is now the 9th story on CNN.COM and isn’t even on FoxNews homepage the day after a “catastrophic event”. Maybe a rainstorm hitting a place that’s needed it the most isn’t such a bad thing? I get that there was flooding and there are probably some impressive videos at washes (which flood impressively after an isolated storm). I also get some places broke all time rainfall records. However, even in a desert, 2” of rain falling over 24 hours isn’t going to lead to the apocalypse. You’re talking about less than 0.09” an hour. A lot of this storm was lighter rain which is exactly what this region needed (I know I saw the flooding videos from washes). Rant over. I just think days in advance people were calling this a catastrophe and it was very clearly going to be the exact kind of rain event the region needed to put the nail in the coffin of the perma drought 

People that get mad because they feel media or anyone else overhype storms are the worst. 

I would always much rather hype too Much than too little. 

53 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Looks like the enhancement from the coast along with the moisture feed off the Atlantichas set up a bit further West then thought. Radar looking like quite a drenching even for LA.

The Atlantic?

I don’t know if this is legitimate but if it is this is what’s heading towards the https://twitter.com/harrisonkrank/status/1693345986419024099?s=21 southwest. 

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

I completely disagree. The worst is still to come

He does this with every single tropical system. Ignore him. 

Death Valley received .42 inches of rain the last two hours. Not going to take much more of that to cause major issues there. 
 

areas in interior San Diego county are already at 1-2 inches with a bunch left to come.