KPITSnow

32 minutes ago, TimB said:

Well we already lost the snow for next weekend, but now it seems we’ve lost the cold too. Even the “cold” part of the pattern is warm and dry.

We are running out of time very fast 

How much did some of you get in the last few weeks? I’m on the train from Pittsburgh to nyc and I’m pretty shocked I’m still seeing snow piles in lots. I’m in Paoli now and still seeing it. 

5 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

Please keep posting these. It’s extremely relevant 

Just now, Burghblizz said:

You’re not wrong. Fewer clippers, more flirting with mix. There have been subtle changes. Maybe offset by more extended LES nuisance snows. But I think 2023 is a blip. There have been plenty before.

Talking warm temps last night and today is very relevant. But Dozens (if not hundreds) of posts that build towards some narrative that our overall snow is dying is the clutter I’m talking about. Nothing in the long term data shows that. 

The clipper one is fascinating to me and I’d love to hear a met’s take on why we don’t see those? Maybe @MAG5035 could elaborate? 

If someone wants to post date to prove me wrong, feel free. Where the changes really feel different are a couple places. 
 

one, there is still cold and snow but not quite as many extended cold snaps. Snow cover over a longer period seems less.

there also seems to be a change in the types of systems we get. I’d love to know what happened to clippers. I remember we used to get a couple 1-3 or 2-4 type clippers a year and I don’t feel we have in 10 years.

The lakes definitely did not used to be open for LES al year. They used to freeze in January cutting off LES. That change seems almost undeniable.

I mentioned this to Tim, it doesn’t seem we set up for front end events anymore. Those events we used to go from snow, to ice, then possibly rain seem gone. It always seems to be we are simply riding a kid or snow line immediately. I can’t remember the last time we got a miller b with mixing issues but still a good front end 2-4 inch type thump. 

5 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Wait - time out. Not sure who you “some of you” are. I have no issues with “climate change talk”. 

I have issues with the flat out obsession of a poster (or three) obsessing over every slice of data that might show a a degree or two warmer for *this* area. Local sensible weather (esp snowfall) has not declined here over extended periods

For 15+ years (going back to eastern), this thread has been about winter storm chasing. Sure we can acknowledge if it’s warm, etc. But some weird slice of data everyday?

I mean look at the Buffalo thread from last year. Climate Changer had 9 posts in a row about Lake Erie being a half degree warmer or some shit. Those guys went to Discord. They want to talk about chasing their 2-4’ lake band. 

So again…it’s not about the topic or the science. It’s about the place and frequency. 

But I also think it is relevant. I don’t think you can argue that winters have been overall warmer. You also can’t argue that the lakes used to regularly shut off for LES by January as they froze but really don’t anymore. We hadn’t had a true Alberta clipper in years here.

I don’t know how all these things tie together, but they are very relevant to our local discussion 

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I didn't even bring up climate change, to be honest. I thought it was interesting. It's not some random record for consecutive days above a random temperature... it was noting that, hey, 2/3rds of the way through met. winter and this has been the warmest of any of our lives. We have all lived through some real clunkers, I think it's noteworthy when, with one month remaining in meteorological winter, we are warmest of record at KPIT and warmest overall in the threaded record in 74 years. I think some are just frustrated. 

For the record, just factoring in yesterday's blowtorch, brings the two-month average up to 37.4F. I mean that's not exactly ideal for winter weather. Hell, the warmest at KPIT from 12-1 to 1-31 currently is 36.4F, set in the winter of 2001-02 so we could potentially blast by that by a full degree.

I know. The response to what is a meteorological fact, which we discuss on here, was way over the top and shows how unfortunately politicized science has become 

8 hours ago, Burghblizz said:

No one cares 

It’s amazing how triggered some of you get at any hint of climate change talk 

1 hour ago, PghPirates27 said:

Still warming! Wish we could be 16 above average in July! I'm a man of the extremes.

I’d rather die lol

Long range GFS is pretty uninteresting with no real sign of a pattern reset. Hopefully we get a window later in February but the first part of the month looks like a shut out. 

I also think the fact two of those 8-12 events were in March makes us misremember them since it melts fast. That 2018 match event was prolonged and I’m not sure the roads ever even caved. 

22 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

I don’t think the NWS frequency page is ever updated, and I never liked the way they do their end points. Ive stopped looking at it, but I think it had something like:

5”+’twice a year…. 8-12” once every 2 years….13”+ once every 14.

So you can spin the expectancy of a 12” type storm a couple different ways, but a storm that pushes or exceeds double digits is about a once every 2 year thing historically. 

The good news is those solid 8-12” snowstorms that had been missing for a bunch of years have been better. I think we have 4 since 2018 (5 for some people that caught the lake band).

So despite the horrible last 15 months, that is a positive overall. We are also officially due for a mega storm. 

Yep. There was a pretty big gap from 2010 to 2018 with nothing but was better in that stretch. 

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

No highest was 10.7 inches on December 17 (11.0" if you count the 0.3" that fell on the 18th as a single event). That's the highest 2- and 3-day total since February 2010.

Funny enough that one performed better further east. I got over a foot in the north hills on that one. I think out towards Indiana they had a stretch of three hours they got under the deform and had 8 inches in that time. 

6 minutes ago, TimB said:

.01” of freezing rain just doesn’t do anything for me. 

Any amount is enough to cause havoc on the roads. I want none of it 

Also, when was the last time we had a good 2-4 inch front end thump transitioning to slop? It seems that those storms are something we don’t get and feels like we got them all the time 10-15 years ago. 

12 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Take a look at the sounding for the HRRR. Brutal temp profile for ZR. 25° at the surface. 

Yeah not a particular fan of this scenario. Last few HRRR runs have trended precip shield north of the city though leaving us in a dry slot.

im fine with that. 

Also this seems like another instance where we are going from single digits to near 40 in 24 hours. Seems to happen a lot here. 

Things look a little dicey tomorrow morning especially north 

3 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

lol, stop reading the New York Times.  Snow is not going away.  We’re in a bum pattern, it happens.  Last decade was a pretty decent decade, this one may not be.

I do think that there will still be snow. I also think though certain patterns have changed. LES snow used to regularly cut off by January as the lakes froze. Clippers really don’t seem to be a thing anymore. To go with the LES part it seems to be because extended cold snaps don’t happen as much anymore. 

So you know how I mentioned it was also dangerous to be outside in cold weather. KC had a bunch of cases of frostbite and hypothermia during their game. 

1 minute ago, Ahoff said:

Do we think this will be a short thaw, or a little more prolonged?

Look I’m willing to play nice.
 

hopefully short. If it is extended we start running out of time for a better storm fast 

So, are we going to be looking at any other potential in the next few weeks? These last couple seem like a wasted opportunity for a bigger event but maybe the pattern resets end of month? 

Just now, TorontoTransplant said:

Miss you! Enjoy the snow out there, Alvarez!

Wtf? This is weird as hell. 
 

you guys need help badly. 

I blocked you four btw. It’s extremely creepy you guys stalk my Reddit. Like really obsessed with me for some reason.

You know what, I’m out. You all need major help.