FXWX

Sorry for delayed response; was on conference calls... All reports say wet roads, but history tells me given temps in your area, icy or refreezing conditions likely along the sides / edges of the roadways; especially secondary roads...

same here... siting at 30...

This is why we can't have nice things... I guess the "don't touch the money" saying means nothing to some folks...

Noting some moderate snow obs (0.5 vis) across northeast PA? KAVP & KMPO

Nice tornado warning in NJ!

Thanks Steve... very comfortable and efficient working office... as long as I can stop looking out the window during storm events; lol

Snowing at a good clip in Burlington! PXL_20230221_092336237.TS.mp4

Around an inch total qpf; give or take few hundreds

I have looked at the issue as well. I see not plausible reason for the number of deadly crashes. It is freaking crazy... other roadways that have high accident rate locations all have very specific well-known issues. None that I know in that stretch of 84...

It's like the Bermuda Triangle of I-84.

That stretch has accidents on 70 degree days with full sun. I'm not sure why? If they setup a wide angle live television feed from that area it would be one of the most watched channels...

Same here... Crews heading out to treat given still wet roads and temps crashing into the upper 20's. Normally drying wins out but only takes is one icy curve for an ugly crash. Stafford heading out to treat soon, as well.

28 here

1000% NO shot it fails!!! Feet of snow with many inches of ice....

At this time and in this setup, it is all about how the block retrogrades... if it diverts a bit southwest, colder/snowier/icier trends would win out. One way or the other, I think the next 2 model runs will start locking on to the final outcome with regards to the block. Not a lot of wiggle room given southeast ridge & -PNA so will need to block to make it all happen?

You crack me up Kev... I have a vision of a group peepers sitting around their weather office on mini-computers arguing about whether or not the -NAO is going to pop or not, and will the MJO ever make it to phase 8... lol Then they grab their cell phones and starts spreading the word!!!

Just went back and checked them out. Had forgotten how absurd they were!!!

Nice... Actually, thinking back, I do recall reading your outlook and noting the 2018 analog... Don't have them in front of me right now, but what were a few of the max temps during Feb 18

Unless we are looking at a pattern favorable for a true Match monster, I'll take a mini 2012 anytime. I'd be happy with a crippling March blizzard followed by a snow vaporizer pattern 2 days later; and then onward to summer...

I'll let him chat about his March thoughts. Not sure there is much confidence overall other than it's unlikely to take a deep prolonged dive below normal. Probably some modest cold intrusions but don't see a reason at this time to call for long running cold regime. The crappy cold season waits until April and we early May, as is normal these days; lol

I'm going to give some props to Tip... Back in December he chatted with me about his expectations that another record setting warm blast could visit during February 2023. He was bullish on a warm period in January, but really liked the potential for another Feb record smashing period...

Yes indeed... although that may be one of the shortest record setting time periods of a high temp I've seen with a 13 degree crash shortly thereafter.

And just like that; a flip of the wind direction and GON goes from 71 to 58...

I'm only a causal poster, but I do spend a good amount of time reading posts by mets on here. I'm not sure how many of the excellent mets on here continue to put up with the BS. I do not recall any met doing anything other than discussing 7 to 10, 10+ day snd/or the weeklies trends, as modeled, with a crap lot of caveats each time. And once the patterns got within 7 days, they were almost always discussing why it was not likely to not work out in positive way for snow and/or cold lovers across central & southern areas. The lack of comprehension on this board is stunning sometimes.