1900hurricane

Even back when it was to my west, you could tell that was going to be the main SE TX cell based on GOES-16 IR, but I didn't think the cell was going to be this prolific.

Just now, SmokeEater said:

K, trying to find live coverage down there.

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Good luck. Whatever market it's in, it's definitely a small one.

2 minutes ago, SmokeEater said:

Anybody know what TV market that S TX storm is in? Seems a little too far from Houston.

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Maybe Huntsville or Lufkin? I'm not really sure.

Having a lot of trouble determining the difference between debris fallout and TBSS on that cell because it's so far away from radar.

I was on the Sam Houston National Forest cell earlier when it passed near Bryan, but let it go as it continued east into the more dense forests near I-45, so it's fitting that it would ramp up after I dropped off it. But man, once it was able to fully root down to the surface and take advantage of the low level shear, it took off. Probably needed the time for it to warm to >80ºF (82/71 at Huntsville the last hour, with dews as high as 75/76ºF just to the south) for it to overcome the low level lapse rates.

Funnel cloud reported near College Station. 

Gonna make the short jaunt into the Brazos River floodplain and watch the cell currently near Lexington as it heads my way.

Gotta love that E TX radar hole.

Sharpening dryline is becoming evident in N TX with surface obs, rader, and visible imagery.

A ~1430Z sounding from CLL has a strong cap with garbage low level lapse rates and rising theta-e wrt height in the boundary layer. Might be a little tough for storms in SETX to become surface based.

Here's the 00Z LIX sounding for reference. Hodograph still isn't all that impressive. I suspect the current cell managed to latch onto an outflow boundary from earlier storms.

Latest radar-derived hodograph from HGX when factoring in surface observations and storm motion.

I think the cells currently near Houston are some of the ones in particular that need to be watched as they head east.

Gong to be interesting to see if the impressive low level lapse rates remain on the 00Z LIX sounding assuming the storms don't overtake them by then.

Here's the overlay of the LIX and BMX soundings from 21Z. In between where the massive tornadoes were was probably the best of both, especially in the low levels.

Those are definitely some mid level lapse rates.

The lead wave looks like it's pushing through Big Bend right now. Main trough is centered back just S of SE Arizona.

8 minutes ago, brianc33710 said:

Where is the warm front now?

I might put it somewhere around here.

The hodo has really started to enlarge at Del Rio. Despite this, the lone cell has started to struggle some likely due to increasing CIN, and I imagine this will likely kill it off eventually. However, as the lead shrotwave ejects out just ahead of the main trough, ascent increases and convective inhibition decreases, which will give way to the main overnight round as we approach 06Z.