Jump to content

1900hurricane

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,004

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 1900hurricane

  1. 1900hurricane
    WP, 22, 2020103118, 01, CARQ, 0, 137N, 1251E, 170, 884, ST, 34, NEQ, 90, 80, 70, 110, 1003, 165, 5, 0, 10, W, 0, X, 245, 13, GONI, D, WP, 22, 2020103118, 01, CARQ, 0, 137N, 1251E, 170, 884, ST, 50, NEQ, 60, 60, 45, 70, 1003, 165, 5, 0, 10, W, 0, X, 245, 13, GONI, D, WP, 22, 2020103118, 01, CARQ, 0, 137N, 1251E, 170, 884, ST, 64, NEQ, 40, 35, 20, 50, 1003, 165, 5, 0, 10, W, 0, X, 245, 13, GONI, D,
  2. 1900hurricane
    And now we have double T8.0s from JMA and JTWC.
  3. 1900hurricane
  4. 1900hurricane
    Posted this a few hours ago, but it isn't like anything has really changed since then aside from the eye continuing to clear out.
  5. 1900hurricane
    155+ kt landfall looks virtually guaranteed at this point.
  6. 1900hurricane
    Thanks, I appreciate it! In this particular case, I think it's worth noting that the shear is coming below the anvil level, which can also be seen around 150 mb in the same sounding with opposite(ish) direction winds from the shearing layer. Might make it tricky to see it well on WV.
  7. 1900hurricane
    Oh hey, that's me!
  8. 1900hurricane
    That is an angry storm complex.
  9. 1900hurricane
  10. 1900hurricane
    It's not so much the CAPE values themselves as it is how tall the CAPE profile is. It extends past 100 mb and off the top of the SHARPpy skew-T. The output on the far right of the same table that displays the CAPE and other values shows the parcel should finally stop rising almost 18 km up! Lifting a saturated parcel that high releases a huge amount of latent heat.
  11. 1900hurricane
    Eyewall replacement has completed, but ENE shear is beginning to make itself known. Recent microwave imagery shows it eating away at the structure on the eastern side. When viewing water vapor imagery, the thunderstorm anvils to the east of Amphan clearly show the shear vector. The shear direction may become slightly more favorable as guidance shows it gaining a more southerly component as Amphan moves north, but that should be canceled out by the increasing magnitude over the same time frame. My expectation is that Amphan will be weakening from here on out.
  12. 1900hurricane
    Eyewall replacement is now under way, and some of the first signs are beginning to show up on IR. Amphan is still just an absolute convective mauler though. A nearby sounding from the Nicobar Islands has the EL above 100 mb.
  13. 1900hurricane
    Here's a visible loop of Vongfong about to make landfall.
  14. 1900hurricane
    Vongfong has managed to intensify into a compact category 3 typhoon. Earlier forecasts had it passing just north of Samar, but I don't think it's going to avoid the island at this point. Between it and some of the solutions for 91B, it appears the NHEM tropics are beginning to wake up for the season.
  15. 1900hurricane
    Gong to be interesting to see if the impressive low level lapse rates remain on the 00Z LIX sounding assuming the storms don't overtake them by then.
  16. 1900hurricane
    Here's the overlay of the LIX and BMX soundings from 21Z. In between where the massive tornadoes were was probably the best of both, especially in the low levels.
  17. 1900hurricane
  18. 1900hurricane
    Those are definitely some mid level lapse rates.
  19. 1900hurricane
    Here's a Twitter post that maybe gives us a glance into the current thoughts of SPC forecasters.
  20. 1900hurricane
    At the risk of sounding like a total nutjob, what if the very high 0-1 km SRH in the lesser outcome models is a sign of a poorly mixed boundary layer where the surface remains largely uncoupled from the low level jet? It seems counterintuitive, but if the low level jet and surface aren't coupled, surface winds would be lower and 0-1 km SRH would increase. The ARW/NSSL WRFs from 00Z all show low level winds closer in vector to the low level jet than the 3km NAM and NMMB of the same suite, which have weaker winds with a stronger easterly component. That however leaves the question of why the boundary layer wouldn't be mixing. Maybe low level lapse rates have something to do with it. It's a highly anecdotal case, but January 10th, 2020 was a day that had a very strong low level jet, massive 0-1 km SRH, enough instability at face value, but poor low level lapse rates across Texas (sounding below). Storms were largely elevated and messy that day. Again, highly anecdotal and far from anything scientifically sound, but maybe something to watch.
  21. 1900hurricane
    As a reference point, here is the 12Z sounding from JAN on April 24, 2010 with a modified surface temperature of 78ºF to match conditions for the Yazoo City tornado (original unmodified here).
  22. 1900hurricane
    Typhoon Faxai looks like it could be the rare typhoon to make landfall on Honshu as a fully tropical (not transitioning) system in the next 24 hours. Worse, it could hit the Tokyo Bay/Kanto Plain area head on.
  23. 1900hurricane
    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1107658364388106243
  24. 1900hurricane
    I figure this is relevant. https://twitter.com/ahberrington/status/1107346133276413952
  25. 1900hurricane
    It's only early March, and we just had a big cold intrusion push all the way through the southern plains and into the gulf, but the overall background state appears to be becoming more favorable for severe weather. Guidance has two rather potent shortwave troughs ejecting into the plains over the next ten days with at least some chances of severe weather for the region, with the first one already having a thread up.
×
×
  • Create New...