1900hurricane

WP, 22, 2020103118, 01, CARQ,   0, 137N, 1251E, 170,  884, ST,  34, NEQ,   90,   80,   70,  110, 1003,  165,   5,   0,  10,   W,   0,   X, 245,  13,       GONI, D, 
WP, 22, 2020103118, 01, CARQ,   0, 137N, 1251E, 170,  884, ST,  50, NEQ,   60,   60,   45,   70, 1003,  165,   5,   0,  10,   W,   0,   X, 245,  13,       GONI, D, 
WP, 22, 2020103118, 01, CARQ,   0, 137N, 1251E, 170,  884, ST,  64, NEQ,   40,   35,   20,   50, 1003,  165,   5,   0,  10,   W,   0,   X, 245,  13,       GONI, D, 

And now we have double T8.0s from JMA and JTWC.

Posted this a few hours ago, but it isn't like anything has really changed since then aside from the eye continuing to clear out.

155+ kt landfall looks virtually guaranteed at this point.

2 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

Never realized that was you. You tweet some real good stuff!

Thanks, I appreciate it!

In this particular case, I think it's worth noting that the shear is coming below the anvil level, which can also be seen around 150 mb in the same sounding with opposite(ish) direction winds from the shearing layer. Might make it tricky to see it well on WV.

Oh hey, that's me!

That is an angry storm complex.

9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hey—can you explain more what I should be looking at here? Is it the CAPE values?

It's not so much the CAPE values themselves as it is how tall the CAPE profile is. It extends past 100 mb and off the top of the SHARPpy skew-T. The output on the far right of the same table that displays the CAPE and other values shows the parcel should finally stop rising almost 18 km up! Lifting a saturated parcel that high releases a huge amount of latent heat.

Eyewall replacement has completed, but ENE shear is beginning to make itself known. Recent microwave imagery shows it eating away at the structure on the eastern side. When viewing water vapor imagery, the thunderstorm anvils to the east of Amphan clearly show the shear vector. The shear direction may become slightly more favorable as guidance shows it gaining a more southerly component as Amphan moves north, but that should be canceled out by the increasing magnitude over the same time frame. My expectation is that Amphan will be weakening from here on out.

Eyewall replacement is now under way, and some of the first signs are beginning to show up on IR. Amphan is still just an absolute convective mauler though. A nearby sounding from the Nicobar Islands has the EL above 100 mb.

Here's a visible loop of Vongfong about to make landfall.

Vongfong has managed to intensify into a compact category 3 typhoon. Earlier forecasts had it passing just north of Samar, but I don't think it's going to avoid the island at this point. Between it and some of the solutions for 91B, it appears the NHEM tropics are beginning to wake up for the season.

Critical angles are expected to be absurdly large (approaching a full 180º) which may keep the tornado threat fairly low even with a discrete cell since there won't be much streamwise vorticity to ingest. Give the instability/shear combo, especially as the low level jet ramps up around sunset, the damaging wind threat does look very real.

PDS Warning

Quote

240 
WFUS54 KLCH 230228
TORLCH
LAC009-079-230300-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0013.200423T0228Z-200423T0300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
928 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northeastern Rapides Parish in central Louisiana...
  Northwestern Avoyelles Parish in central Louisiana...

* Until 1000 PM CDT.
    
* At 928 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado
  was located 7 miles south of Alexandria, moving northeast at 35
  mph.

  This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris 
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile 
           homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, 
           businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete 
           destruction is possible.

* The tornado will be near...
  Pineville around 945 PM CDT.
  Kolin, Ruby, Libuse and Poland around 950 PM CDT.
  Esler Regional Airport around 955 PM CDT.
  Centerpoint and Holloway around 1000 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Woodworth.

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 71 and 85.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move
to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying
debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3111 9256 3125 9259 3144 9220 3113 9221
TIME...MOT...LOC 0228Z 246DEG 32KT 3119 9251 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...1.50IN

$$

--

NWS Warnings Provided by AllisonHouse.com

 

Looks like a tor again on KPOE radar just based on how low the beam is (~600 ft).

I wonder if it’s starting to collapse now. Not much rotation anymore. There’s a big spike in reflectivity, which would suggest the opposite, but maybe some of the hail that has been suspended in the updraft is starting to fall out all at the same time as the updraft weakens. Not sure, just speculating.

EDIT: really doesn't look that way now...

Clear debris ball on both CC and reflectivity now.

KPOE has been having issues with clear air velocity returns near this storm. I even flipped over to KLCH because of it.

Holy crap.