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1900hurricane

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  1. 1900hurricane
    WP, 22, 2020103118, 01, CARQ, 0, 137N, 1251E, 170, 884, ST, 34, NEQ, 90, 80, 70, 110, 1003, 165, 5, 0, 10, W, 0, X, 245, 13, GONI, D, WP, 22, 2020103118, 01, CARQ, 0, 137N, 1251E, 170, 884, ST, 50, NEQ, 60, 60, 45, 70, 1003, 165, 5, 0, 10, W, 0, X, 245, 13, GONI, D, WP, 22, 2020103118, 01, CARQ, 0, 137N, 1251E, 170, 884, ST, 64, NEQ, 40, 35, 20, 50, 1003, 165, 5, 0, 10, W, 0, X, 245, 13, GONI, D,
  2. 1900hurricane
    And now we have double T8.0s from JMA and JTWC.
  3. 1900hurricane
  4. 1900hurricane
    Posted this a few hours ago, but it isn't like anything has really changed since then aside from the eye continuing to clear out.
  5. 1900hurricane
    155+ kt landfall looks virtually guaranteed at this point.
  6. 1900hurricane
    Thanks, I appreciate it! In this particular case, I think it's worth noting that the shear is coming below the anvil level, which can also be seen around 150 mb in the same sounding with opposite(ish) direction winds from the shearing layer. Might make it tricky to see it well on WV.
  7. 1900hurricane
    Oh hey, that's me!
  8. 1900hurricane
    That is an angry storm complex.
  9. 1900hurricane
  10. 1900hurricane
    It's not so much the CAPE values themselves as it is how tall the CAPE profile is. It extends past 100 mb and off the top of the SHARPpy skew-T. The output on the far right of the same table that displays the CAPE and other values shows the parcel should finally stop rising almost 18 km up! Lifting a saturated parcel that high releases a huge amount of latent heat.
  11. 1900hurricane
    Eyewall replacement has completed, but ENE shear is beginning to make itself known. Recent microwave imagery shows it eating away at the structure on the eastern side. When viewing water vapor imagery, the thunderstorm anvils to the east of Amphan clearly show the shear vector. The shear direction may become slightly more favorable as guidance shows it gaining a more southerly component as Amphan moves north, but that should be canceled out by the increasing magnitude over the same time frame. My expectation is that Amphan will be weakening from here on out.
  12. 1900hurricane
    Eyewall replacement is now under way, and some of the first signs are beginning to show up on IR. Amphan is still just an absolute convective mauler though. A nearby sounding from the Nicobar Islands has the EL above 100 mb.
  13. 1900hurricane
    Here's a visible loop of Vongfong about to make landfall.
  14. 1900hurricane
    Vongfong has managed to intensify into a compact category 3 typhoon. Earlier forecasts had it passing just north of Samar, but I don't think it's going to avoid the island at this point. Between it and some of the solutions for 91B, it appears the NHEM tropics are beginning to wake up for the season.
  15. 1900hurricane
    Typhoon Faxai looks like it could be the rare typhoon to make landfall on Honshu as a fully tropical (not transitioning) system in the next 24 hours. Worse, it could hit the Tokyo Bay/Kanto Plain area head on.
  16. 1900hurricane
    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1107658364388106243
  17. 1900hurricane
    I figure this is relevant. https://twitter.com/ahberrington/status/1107346133276413952
  18. 1900hurricane
    It's only early March, and we just had a big cold intrusion push all the way through the southern plains and into the gulf, but the overall background state appears to be becoming more favorable for severe weather. Guidance has two rather potent shortwave troughs ejecting into the plains over the next ten days with at least some chances of severe weather for the region, with the first one already having a thread up.
  19. 1900hurricane
    I'm getting some deja vu. https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1014998761288994816
  20. 1900hurricane
    Gita appears to be impacting those islands right about now.
  21. 1900hurricane
    Haikui was lame.Did nothing of any note.Now a naked swirl.
  22. 1900hurricane
    Nock-Ten also had a 140 kt intensity on Christmas Day 2016.
  23. 1900hurricane
    After one of the quietest starts to date, the WPac has woken up in a big way. Six tropical cyclones or invests currently are spread through the basin.
  24. 1900hurricane
    Slow start for the WPac this year, although that has been fairly typical these past few years.
  25. 1900hurricane
    The failure mode I'm worried about most right now for next week is 2015 style MCSs prematurely clearing out the warm sector actually. It might be a little early to be overly concerned about it, but guidance is throwing some persistent and robust splitting upper level jets over the southern plains, which is driving the QPF fields way up.
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