WxWatcher007

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

some pretty low CC's in the vicinity of the couplet. not sure if enough for a TDS but a bit interesting. maybe leaves/sticks

Funnel cloud was seen in Dutchess County per spotter report just before that warning was issued. 

TOR warning up for a cell heading into western CT. 

I’m clearly bored

Mesoscale Discussion 0402
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1049 AM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021

   Areas affected...Western MA...NY Hudson Valley...Western/Central
   Long Island...Western CT...NJ

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 211549Z - 211815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated over the next hour
   or two along a cold front progressing through the Northeast.
   Damaging wind gusts are possible with these storms and trends are
   being monitored for possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low near the NY/NJ/PA
   border intersection. A warm front extends eastward/northeastward
   from this low across southern NY through western MA and off the far
   southern ME coast. This low is embedded within a broad area of low
   pressure preceding a strong frontal surge attendant to a shortwave
   moving into western PA/NY. This low is expected to deepen over the
   next few hours ahead of the front while the warm front lifts
   northward. As a result, temperatures in the low to mid 60s will
   likely be in place ahead of the front from western MA through
   central NJ. Low-level moisture will be modest (i.e. in upper 40s/low
   50s) but the steep low and mid-level lapse rates will foster modest
   buoyancy.

   Expectation is that deeper convection will begin developing along
   the front during the next hour or two before then moving quickly
   eastward across the region. Previously mentioned steep low-level
   lapse rates coupled with deep convection and strengthening low to
   mid-level flow will result in the potential for damaging wind gusts
   as the storms move through. Storm coverage may be high enough to
   merit watch issuance and convective trends are being monitored
   closely.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 04/21/2021

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

good sign to see some lightning with this initial activity. 

Yeah, that stuff moving into northern Hartford County looks pretty decent. 

Probably irrelevant, but I didn't expect it to be this breezy. My VP2 gusted to 24mph which is pretty decent given how it is sited. 

Just now, Cyclone-68 said:

I’ll be disappointed with anything less than a TORCON 7 this summer 

In Kansas?  

Latest NAM looked decent for some storms in CT, especially in western CT. Sounding looked alright for the Hartford area. Would prefer more DCAPE but hopefully I can get some good pics today. 

Cool neutral at best ASO in my opinion. I think a niño is highly unlikely. 

Just now, CAPE said:

Looks like it will be benevolent- recurve and pretty rapidly weaken.

The loop is really interesting. It looks like a buzzsaw that just stops short of landfall. Good for the people out there. 

Florida has seen its fair share of close calls too. Matthew, Dorian, and Isaias come to mind. 

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Think it’ll recurve cause a major snowstorm in the east for early May LOL 

I’m not as big into connecting the hemispheric dots, but folks like HM think the recurve will dislodge the current pattern and potentially open up severe season in the plains. 

It snowed here last May  

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

That is nuts.

The structure actually looks a bit worse than before but man what a monster. Wish we had some visible imagery. 

190mph/888mb

Absolutely ridiculous for April. 

I don’t usually look at WPAC stuff, but this one is a beauty. 

58 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

 

I haven't said a whole lot, but maybe a few noticed I was gone for stretches of time over the past year..... Anyway. I met someone online back in a chat room (for trains) late Feb last year, she lives in SoCal. So, yes, I HAVE traveled a LOT these past 15 months or so, probably 12-14 times. I've flown into SNA, LAX, SEA (first meeting, her sister lives there and she wanted an 'escape' in case I wasn't who I said I was lol) and we've met in STL and DEN a few times, plus seen my son there too. I learned that it is WELL worth the extra 40-60 bucks to fly Delta, they DON"T pack you like cattle and I've only had one cancel/reschedule with them. I started with United, they changed my flight EVERY time and 'packed the bus' each time. I flew with them this last time on short notice and they did it again, so there IS a pattern, just an FYI for those flying. And so I can officially announce that after almost 8 years after my wife passed, I am getting married again in October. Never thought I would be saying that, but she is an awesome person and we are a perfect match, strange how that happens when you aren't even trying to look. She is moving here, likes the slower pace and her company is letting her work from here the last few years she wants to stay. I guess we can call this an announcement, lol.

Congrats! You just never know where life will take you. I'm happy for you.  

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I’d rather watch spinning cyclones than listen to people squabble over cloth.

I'm only here for the spinning cyclones. It doesn't snow anymore  

14 minutes ago, radarman said:

Can they put the backboards back up on the basketball courts after the snow melts?  I promise not to pass or back anyone down in the low post, just launch 3s.  

1 hour ago, George BM said:

@WxWatcher007

Check out STYSurigae in the Western Pacific.

This was a really hard week, but I’m happy to introduce my newest art acquisition. This is the one of a few I just got:

3 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

We need a thread for tips on roads in areas and special spots in New England.  

Totally agree. Need good spots for shelf cloud season, high elevation vistas, and big surf.

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Day 10 euro.

All I’m asking for is something chase worthy. This winter sucked for that.

35.5/34

Rain/Snow mix with more flakes.

59 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

 

Wind outlook  

I really might head west if there’s something high end in the plains this May/June.

NHC updated their report on Isaias and I found it interesting how the tornado reports were so close to the center.

Perhaps it’s because of the baroclinic enhancement? I guess it could also be proximity to the ocean.