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TauntonBlizzard2013

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Everything posted by TauntonBlizzard2013

  1. TauntonBlizzard2013
    Kind of a wild call at this lead. Very hard to walk that back if something changes lol
  2. TauntonBlizzard2013
    Gfs sees a tad slower through 66. Wonder if that helps the final outcome
  3. TauntonBlizzard2013
    Wow. Icon slays. Gets eastern areas with the coastal. That’s how you get 12-18
  4. TauntonBlizzard2013
    Not sure what to make of the NAM
  5. TauntonBlizzard2013
    No school Monday and possibly Tuesday?
  6. TauntonBlizzard2013
    You can still see a handful of members that would get a secondary going. It’s on life support, but not gone entirely
  7. TauntonBlizzard2013
    We knew. However, the actually overrunning portion is beefing up. Still could easily produce a foot
  8. TauntonBlizzard2013
    Euro and euro AI both look great here. 10-15”
  9. TauntonBlizzard2013
    There are also some Mets with hesitation on bigger totals, are we ignoring that? It’s okay to disagree. I want to see a more defined secondary development before I buy big totals. Others are free to think differently, and then we reconvene after the event to see what happened.
  10. TauntonBlizzard2013
    I think that’s the upper bound solution. Prolific overrunning followed by a defined, developing costal with CCB action in eastern areas. That is how someone scores 20. Hope it’s right, but that’s looking less likely after 12z IMO
  11. TauntonBlizzard2013
    I think the trend at 12z, minus the Canadian, was decidedly less potential CCB influence from another developing low pressure. I think that’s the key. And if we don’t get that, you have a hard time reaching big totals. Correct me if I’m wrong, but don’t we normally see huge ratios in a more traditional coastal? I’m not sure in this type of setup you are going to get 15+:1 ratios. However, even an inch of water at 12-13:1 is close to a foot of snow.
  12. TauntonBlizzard2013
    Euro is closer to an icon solution than anything else.
  13. TauntonBlizzard2013
    Watch out, you might catch shit for this lol. But I agree. I’m selling any secondary involvement. I’d guess this ends up a pretty uniform 6-10” spot 12
  14. TauntonBlizzard2013
    Obviously if we get a CCB assist in the second half, all bets are off. I think mid sized was a bad choice of words, probably should have just said, not upper echelon
  15. TauntonBlizzard2013
    I didn’t know not jumping immediately to a double digit floor was a bad thing lol. Just trying to be realistic
  16. TauntonBlizzard2013
    Actually develops the storm in time for a CCB assist in eastern ma. 1.5 qpf south of boston
  17. TauntonBlizzard2013
    I’d say most solutions have been closer to 10 if you toss the out of control Kuchera maps
  18. TauntonBlizzard2013
    I think some folks are overselling this thing a bit. Obviously, these are great solutions and everyone would take. It’s certainly not high end though? As modeled. A nice, mid sized snowstorm.
  19. TauntonBlizzard2013
    It pretty much is on the gfs and icon. That definitely puts a ceiling on this. Not that it won’t be good
  20. TauntonBlizzard2013
    18z Sunday start and still snowing at 06z Tuesday in eastern ma. When was the last time a snow event was flying out of here in 4-6 hours?
  21. TauntonBlizzard2013
    1.25” qpf across most of SNE. if ratios are a little better than 10:1, that’s a solid 10-15”
  22. TauntonBlizzard2013
    CMC is a little slower than the gfs, but end result will be better
  23. TauntonBlizzard2013
    36 hours or so? Sunday through late Monday for many
  24. TauntonBlizzard2013
    Solid long duration 8-12
  25. TauntonBlizzard2013
    The irony of your posting this is not lost on me.
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