schoeppeya

"Any test with a cycle threshold above 35 is too sensitive, agreed Juliet Morrison, a virologist at the University of California, Riverside. “I’m shocked that people would think that 40 could represent a positive,” she said. A more reasonable cutoff would be 30 to 35, she added. Dr. Mina said he would set the figure at 30, or even less. Those changes would mean the amount of genetic material in a patient’s sample would have to be 100-fold to 1,000-fold that of the current standard for the test to return a positive result — at least, one worth acting on." These doctors are clearly making the argument that people are testing positive when they shouldn't be-its also been shown over and over again that a large number of people with a low viral load will never have a higher one. Which is why so many people, maybe even the majority, never have symptoms. Our entire response the last few months to the virus has been the huge number of positive tests. If fifty percent of those positive tests were taken away, our response would be different. Do you disagree with that?

Dude. Read the article again. Although Mina mentions that some of the low viral load positives are taken before or after they reach the peak, the intent of the article is to make the case that there are a ton of positive tests from carriers with a viral load too low to be transmissible. The article lists many reasons that this is possible beyond capturing the virus before or after an increase in viral load.

It’s not a narrative that upwards of fifty percent of people who have tested positive possibly shouldn’t have and it’s barely being talked about? Total number of positive cases has been the most important metric by which this pandemic has been measured for months now. That has been the narrative that has justified much of the decision making as we’ve transitioned through the summer and fall - you really think that if all of the sudden people found out that over half of positives shouldn’t have been, they’re not going to be upset?

Narratives matter.

Lol. You’re trolling.

I’m aware of what the images show. The third image is testing, which is increasing, which is exactly the point. Did you see the graphic where Texas, California, Georgia, Tennessee and Florida are leaders for the amount of testing they have done?

Ok lets deal in facts. Look at the chart the poster above this statement posted. Look at the link I provided for you to look through. You are either a really good troll or too obtuse to digest data that is presented to you. The last chart clearly shows an increase in testing and a decrease in the percentage of positive tests, along with a downward trend of total positive cases and a dramatic decline in hospitalizations. So please, explain to me my vested interest in misinformation while I provide you with facts.

Sure, but there are also plenty of accounts of young adults going from healthy to dead in a 24 hour period from the Spanish Flu. That doesn't happen to healthy young adults from Covid. There is also a hypothesis that older populations had some antibody protection from the Russian Flu in 1890, but nothing conclusive. The point I was making was that even comparing the time period when we really didn't have an answer for Covid, the Spanish Flu was more deadly.

Literally everything you just claimed in that sentence is false.

It is mine as well. I haven't drank for over three years. I do, however, also enjoy going to concerts, sporting events, the gym, etc etc. People who get their satisfaction from the outdoors are, unfortunately, the exception to the rule in our country. And, the mental health aspect of the shutdowns goes way beyond entertainment into kids spending most of their time at home, distance learning, and diminished socialization in general. It's not as different as you think it is. We had a several month period where we didn't know how in the world to treat Covid, and provably actually killed some people by putting them on ventilators. Covid has never killed young healthy people like the Spanish Flu did, who were actually at a higher risk than those with weaker immune systems. You're correct though, it is all hypotheticals. I tend to think if Covid had hit in 1918 most of the country would have caught it during the initial outbreak and it would have been considered a bad flu season. There's a huge number of cases in this country that people didn't know they had until they got tested. That wouldn't have changed.

Im not arguing that. I am contradicting his claim that nobody in the south is taking the precautions they need to and they will continue to get "sicker and sicker". Both of those claims are not true.

https://www.tmc.edu Take a look through that data. That is for the largest health care system in Houston. You’re still wrong.

Just illustrating there’s still a cost to keeping virus numbers low that goes beyond economic numbers. Sorry playing D&D in your moms basement is your standard coping mechanism. Life goes on as normal for you. The bubonic plague that killed a quarter of Europe’s population was tough. Smallpox in the New World that killed up to 90% of Native populations was tough. Hell, the Spanish Flu that killed healthy young adults and was a death sentence for pregnant women was tough. If you think this pandemic is tough, I don’t know what to tell you. The self imposed economic and social impacts will cause more harm than this virus ever would have.

Everything except societies conventional coping mechanisms.

They’ve also been having massive anti-Rona lockdown protests over the last couple weeks

I specifically took issue with you stating the south will continue to get “sicker and sicker”, which actual data shows is beyond ignorant.

It is comical that you make a post claiming to trust the numbers, implying that they reinforce your narrative. If you actually go look at them, you will show my post is a reflection of those numbers, and you clearly have no idea what the numbers actually are. The only states currently showing an upward trend in cases are, in fact, not in the south. I haven't seen anybody not wearing a mask in public in OKC in about two months. I have been to Dallas several times and it is the same situation there. My father in law has flown to Houston a few times and most of the city has been shut downl. So, again, you have no clue what you're talking about.

As someone who lives in the south, you literally have no clue what you’re talking about. Not to mention, the south has already been getting less sick and less sick for about a month now.

Keeping an eye on the dews here in Fayetteville... temp of 39 but a dewpoint of 22 with moderate rain about to move in... could see some impressive evaporational cooling. (At least I can dream right )

Ive been a mainly lurker on the forum for almost ten years now and just dropped in to say howdy neighbor . (I live on Wildflower)